12/22

IND +4.5 -105

It has been a very bad week with 4 of the teams I backed losing their QBs in the games.

Since 3 were underdog plays that made it very difficult.

Then even though JAX won, I expected a more playoff-type atmosphere with both defenses showing up.  I did not expect DEN defense to not show up.

So, it was  not something I was thinking about earlier in the week when I played IND.

A couple of the contests had IND -6.5 and I took IND in those.

Then I played IND -6 early.

I used to post the plays as I got them.  But it just made the thread too convoluted throughout the week.  Because I add to it or flatten out often.

But I will go either way the current IND +4.5 -105 here

I think this is a unique game that could demonstrate when there truly can be a homefield advantage in the NFL.  

You do not see it that much any longer at the standard 3 points it used to be.

BLT and GB usually have the highest ‘true home field advantage’ of 3.6-3.5.

IND is usually down around 2.4 or so.

But this year they are playing much better at home.

The main areas that will seem to matter is how much better their run game is at home.

They will need this to work to keep the ball away from SF.  If they can extend drives and run the clock with solid runs and quick, short passes it will help them a lot.

The other thing is that SF does not have a great run defense on the road.

SF also has a very bad rushing game and it is worse on the road.  

IND has been decent at stopping the run.

The issue will be whether they can get pressure on Purdy and make enough stops to keep the game close.

The issue is that inside Purdy may be more effective against the zone coverage, that IND will likely show, than he has been lately.

The issue is that in a dome he will in all likelihood be successful.  If IND cannot get to him, he will likely be very successful.  So, this will be very key as it will likely open up the weaker run game.

Some numbers I considered:

SF rushing game is not good.  

The IND run defense is decent.

The IND rushing game is very good and is even better at home.

The SF rushing defense is just average.

SF - Y/A is 31st at 3.5  and PE/Play is 31st at -.032

IND - Y/A is 6th at 4.8 and PE/Play is 1st at .104

Away SF - Y/A is 31st at 3.3 and PE/Play is 31st at -.050

Home IND - Y/A is 1st at 5.5 and PE/Play is 1st at .158

SF Run Def - Y/A is 17th at 4.3 and PS/Play is 22nd at .301

IND Run Def - Y/A is 2nd at 3.7 and PS/Play is 24th at .291

Away SF Run Def - Y/A is 12th at 4.2 and PS/Play is 18th at .295

Home IND Run Def - Y/A is 15th at 4.3 and PS/Play is 23rd at .307

The issue is that SF has a decent passing game and IND does not with the QB situation. 

The issue this year has been that SF cannot get pressure on the QB.  

IND, on the other hand, will have Rivers getting rid of the ball very quickly with short passes behind setting up the run.

Away Pass Defense SF - Rating against is 29th at 107.8 and PS/Play is 29th at .268 

Compared to 16th at home rating of 92.2 and 26th PS/Play at home of .154

Home Pass Defense IND - Rating against is 8th at 78.2 and PS/Play is 15th at .233

Compared to 16th away rating of 96.6 and PS/Play is 28th at .098

SF - Away Pressure% is 30th at 29.6%  

Sack% is 31st at 3.6%

PS/Play is 26th at .077

IND - Home Pressure% is 19th at 38%

Sack% is 12th at 6.8%

PS/Play is 17th at .146

Since IND has had the injury at corner and is thin at that spot they have mostly been running Cover3.  

This is one of the ares Purdy has struggled a bit.  

Against Man coverage he has a rating of 121.9 and against Zone coverage he has a 78.2 rating.

But Purdy has been playing very well lately, period.  

So, this IND defense will have to be able to get the pressure on him to see any advantage play out here.

Still like Indy +4.5

@angusbogus

I hope you are right.

I will add that I am very biased as I have an underdog ML party with PIT/IND moneyline with great odds in play.

I very, very rarely play them.  Maybe 4 so far this year.  

I am pushing my luck since I hit the one on Thanksgiving Day with all 3 dogs.

But either way, I am rooting for 'Old Man Rivers' to play well tonight 

Like the analysis here. Good stuff. 

May I add that Brock Purdy is not a qb you want to blitz, he's really good against it.

The Colts blitz rate is mid, around 26%.

Brock Purdy surprisingly is not good with play action pass. You'd think that in a Shanahan system with CMJ he'd be good at it.

His play action comp percentage is 47.3%. He doesn't like turning his back to the defense. 

Best of luck Raiders 

@Raiders22

 CMC ov 40 receiving yards is my favorite way to attack this game. If the run lanes are blocked up they should still look to get him the ball through the air. Low number for a high caliber player who gets targets and receptions every game. GL Raiders 

@undermysac

 Yes he is very good against the blitz.  They will have to do with it with the front line

@brn2loslive2win

 I like that play.  Do not play many props.  But I trust you on this one and I may join you.

Lou Anarumo is good at disguising coverages. Hope you get a good called game from him tonight. 

Purdy likes looking at what is in front of him.

@undermysac

 Not just that -- Purdy has been HOT the last couple of games.  Hoping Colts defense is better than Titans was.

@undermysac

 It is slightly tricky to disguise if you cannot go to Man at any time because of CBs being injured.

But he better do something