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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    New Strategy Starting Today

    FredLeonard
    MITM
    North-Japan
    davemsh
    SPark1
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    Views: 1364
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    FredLeonard
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 10:28 AM ET #1

     After watching games going over like crazy I have decided that starting today I will be betting every game to go over selling a point or two in each one to get plus odds.  This is for every game in every major American sport NBA NHL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NFL.  I will be betting less than 1% of my bankroll on each game. This will hit at over 50% which will yield a profit.  I'm not saying follow this strategy but after gambling for such a long time and losing I need a less stressful approach.  This is to keep it interesting and to save money.  I will be shocked if this hits at less than 50%.  Thank you to those of you who are nice and I hope ppl made money off my picks even if you faded me. Good luck today all.  peace

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     After watching games going over like crazy I have decided that starting today I will be betting every game to go over selling a point or two in each one to get plus odds.  This is for every game in every major American sport NBA NHL NCAAF NCAAB MLB NFL.  I will be betting less than 1% of my bankroll on each game. This will hit at over 50% which will yield a profit.  I'm not saying follow this strategy but after gambling for such a long time and losing I need a less stressful approach.  This is to keep it interesting and to save money.  I will be shocked if this hits at less than 50%.  Thank you to those of you who are nice and I hope ppl made money off my picks even if you faded me. Good luck today all.  peace

     
    MITM
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 10:49 AM ET #2

    @FredLeonard

     I wouldn't play everyone of them. But I understand the strategy.

    I used something like this once. I had a goal of 53% Winners with an average payback of (+115). Playing 5 plays per day, it was across all sports as well.

    Whats frustrating is,,,,, u will have a worse line than u think, sometimes as much as 3pts difference to get any kind of decent payback. And then there will be many times that your going to lose, when if u didn't sale points, u would have won. Those are very frustrating.

    I Under the strategy and its not bad but I'm against playing all of them. I like the 5 best per day. 

     

    Good luck with it

     

    Falcon 

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    @FredLeonard

     I wouldn't play everyone of them. But I understand the strategy.

    I used something like this once. I had a goal of 53% Winners with an average payback of (+115). Playing 5 plays per day, it was across all sports as well.

    Whats frustrating is,,,,, u will have a worse line than u think, sometimes as much as 3pts difference to get any kind of decent payback. And then there will be many times that your going to lose, when if u didn't sale points, u would have won. Those are very frustrating.

    I Under the strategy and its not bad but I'm against playing all of them. I like the 5 best per day. 

     

    Good luck with it

     

    Falcon 

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 11:00 AM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by MITM:

    @FredLeonard  I wouldn't play everyone of them. But I understand the strategy. I used something like this once. I had a goal of 53% Winners with an average payback of (+115). Playing 5 plays per day, it was across all sports as well. Whats frustrating is,,,,, u will have a worse line than u think, sometimes as much as 3pts difference to get any kind of decent payback. And then there will be many times that your going to lose, when if u didn't sale points, u would have won. Those are very frustrating. I Under the strategy and its not bad but I'm against playing all of them. I like the 5 best per day.    Good luck with it   Falcon

    Over the summer we were discussing this with MLB. There will be horrid days and good days, I don't know enough about sports to bet like you guys so I'm blindly betting every over. Ty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MITM:

    @FredLeonard  I wouldn't play everyone of them. But I understand the strategy. I used something like this once. I had a goal of 53% Winners with an average payback of (+115). Playing 5 plays per day, it was across all sports as well. Whats frustrating is,,,,, u will have a worse line than u think, sometimes as much as 3pts difference to get any kind of decent payback. And then there will be many times that your going to lose, when if u didn't sale points, u would have won. Those are very frustrating. I Under the strategy and its not bad but I'm against playing all of them. I like the 5 best per day.    Good luck with it   Falcon

    Over the summer we were discussing this with MLB. There will be horrid days and good days, I don't know enough about sports to bet like you guys so I'm blindly betting every over. Ty.

     
    MITM
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 11:00 AM ET #4

    Let me say one more thing.

     

    I love outside the box thinking and I like your thinking here but here it comes.

    There is absolutely nothing that u can play "across the board" and be profitable. Thats my opinion. How could u bet every sporting event for a year with your strategy and turn a profit. Do u think anything in this business is that simple.

    As I said, I like your concept here, its just the (every game on the board) part that I don't like and I don't think u will be profitable.

    But best of luck, I love the effort. 

     

    Falcon 

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    Let me say one more thing.

     

    I love outside the box thinking and I like your thinking here but here it comes.

    There is absolutely nothing that u can play "across the board" and be profitable. Thats my opinion. How could u bet every sporting event for a year with your strategy and turn a profit. Do u think anything in this business is that simple.

    As I said, I like your concept here, its just the (every game on the board) part that I don't like and I don't think u will be profitable.

    But best of luck, I love the effort. 

     

    Falcon 

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 11:04 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by MITM:

    Let me say one more thing. I love outside the box thinking and I like your thinking here but here it comes. There is absolutely nothing that u can play "across the board" and be profitable. Thats my opinion. How could u bet every sporting event for a year with your strategy and turn a profit. Do u think anything in this business is that simple. As I said, I like your concept here, its just the (every game on the board) part that I don't like and I don't think u will be profitable. But best of luck, I love the effort.    Falcon

    I know very little about sports I started gambling when I was 12 I have no business doing this but Im having fun already with the new strategy. The bets are in. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by MITM:

    Let me say one more thing. I love outside the box thinking and I like your thinking here but here it comes. There is absolutely nothing that u can play "across the board" and be profitable. Thats my opinion. How could u bet every sporting event for a year with your strategy and turn a profit. Do u think anything in this business is that simple. As I said, I like your concept here, its just the (every game on the board) part that I don't like and I don't think u will be profitable. But best of luck, I love the effort.    Falcon

    I know very little about sports I started gambling when I was 12 I have no business doing this but Im having fun already with the new strategy. The bets are in. 

     
    MITM
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 11:22 AM ET #6

    @FredLeonard

     Thats great, having fun is very very important. The older I get, the truer that becomes.

    Hope u hit the first one today for sure. 

     

    Falcon 

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    @FredLeonard

     Thats great, having fun is very very important. The older I get, the truer that becomes.

    Hope u hit the first one today for sure. 

     

    Falcon 

     
    North-Japan
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 11:57 AM ET #7

    Especially on prime time games, the OVER cash more. yesterday it went 4-1 over.

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    Especially on prime time games, the OVER cash more. yesterday it went 4-1 over.

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:23 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by MITM:

    @FredLeonard  Thats great, having fun is very very important. The older I get, the truer that becomes. Hope u hit the first one today for sure.    Falcon

    Thanks! I tried this for a few days with MLB but got screwed with the total landing between the listed number and my alternate.  Trying again though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MITM:

    @FredLeonard  Thats great, having fun is very very important. The older I get, the truer that becomes. Hope u hit the first one today for sure.    Falcon

    Thanks! I tried this for a few days with MLB but got screwed with the total landing between the listed number and my alternate.  Trying again though.

     
    davemsh
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:30 PM ET #9

    If u flat bet every over every game/ U will come out ahead. U will NOt losean_light. Proof is in the pudding. This is facts. Numbers do not lie.. look at the amount of 250+ point games this season. Net this season so far is the highest scoring in the NBA history. 

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    If u flat bet every over every game/ U will come out ahead. U will NOt losean_light. Proof is in the pudding. This is facts. Numbers do not lie.. look at the amount of 250+ point games this season. Net this season so far is the highest scoring in the NBA history. 

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:33 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    If u flat bet every over every game/ U will come out ahead. U will NOt lose. Proof is in the pudding. This is facts. Numbers do not lie.. look at the amount of 250+ point games this season. Net this season so far is the highest scoring in the NBA history.

    It's not stopping the offense is insane these days, a 244 total 20 years ago was rare, now it's common

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    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    If u flat bet every over every game/ U will come out ahead. U will NOt lose. Proof is in the pudding. This is facts. Numbers do not lie.. look at the amount of 250+ point games this season. Net this season so far is the highest scoring in the NBA history.

    It's not stopping the offense is insane these days, a 244 total 20 years ago was rare, now it's common

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:35 PM ET #11

    I got this idea from MITM over the summer.  Staying away from soccer although it works there too.  

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    I got this idea from MITM over the summer.  Staying away from soccer although it works there too.  

     
    davemsh
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 12:37 PM ET #12

    @FredLeonard

     5 years ago with the KD warriors.  240 points total was like the highest of the season. 

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    @FredLeonard

     5 years ago with the KD warriors.  240 points total was like the highest of the season. 

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 1:09 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    @FredLeonard  5 years ago with the KD warriors.  240 points total was like the highest of the season.

    Common totals will be NHL 7.5 NBA 255 MLB 12 NFL 50. The books aren't stupid it's a business.  The public loves favorites and overs and the books need to adjust accordingly.  

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    Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

    @FredLeonard  5 years ago with the KD warriors.  240 points total was like the highest of the season.

    Common totals will be NHL 7.5 NBA 255 MLB 12 NFL 50. The books aren't stupid it's a business.  The public loves favorites and overs and the books need to adjust accordingly.  

     
    SPark1
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    Posted: Dec. 26, 2023 - 4:34 PM ET #14

    @FredLeonard

     

    Common totals? You dont see totals that high all the games

    It's all probabilities
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    @FredLeonard

     

    Common totals? You dont see totals that high all the games

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2023 - 1:00 PM ET #15

    Also fading my father's favorite teams and hammering the teams he hates. It's working so far.  

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    Also fading my father's favorite teams and hammering the teams he hates. It's working so far.  

     
    FredLeonard
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2023 - 10:12 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by FredLeonard:

    Also fading my father's favorite teams and hammering the teams he hates. It's working so far.

    See this part worked but got killed on the overs yesterday.  My father doesn't bet on sports but his fav teams always lose. Considering I have no idea what I'm doing I might just follow gut instincts. Thoughts?

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    Quote Originally Posted by FredLeonard:

    Also fading my father's favorite teams and hammering the teams he hates. It's working so far.

    See this part worked but got killed on the overs yesterday.  My father doesn't bet on sports but his fav teams always lose. Considering I have no idea what I'm doing I might just follow gut instincts. Thoughts?

     
     
    Trader_Mark
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    Posted: Dec. 28, 2023 - 1:38 PM ET #17

    @FredLeonard

     I had the overs at 3-3?  So break even or slight profit if any better than +100

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    @FredLeonard

     I had the overs at 3-3?  So break even or slight profit if any better than +100

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