I got absolutely hammered last night.
12/03/08 4-7-0 36.36% -1070
I am not ashamed to admit it. There are no sure things in capping games. If there was I would be paying a lot more child support than I do.
I would have went 6-5 if I had stuck to my system. My system had Cleveland and Milwaukee but my idiotic brain told me that I had picked too many home favorites. So, like an idiot would do, I changed my picks on the two teams that are the hottest ATS. Live and learn.
Thankfully there are only two games today. I capped them early. I am going to do the Over/under and the spread on both.
Phoenix at Dallas -4.5 Neither team is good ATS, but in all fairness to both, they are dealing with injuries and changes in team concept. So that is a wash. Dallas is absolutely terrible at home, whereas Phoenix is average on the road. Nash and Shaq will be back tonight. Both teams are averaging over 100pts in their last 5 and that's without Nash for Phoenix(for 2 games) and Howard for Dallas.
Phoenix +4.5 plus over 204pts.
San Antonio at Denver -4 Denver is 12-6-1 ATS and San Antonio 8-9. Denver is 6-2-1 at home and San Antonio is 3-4 away. The over/under is a little trickier. On paper, Denver averages 102.2 but when playing the Spurs the O/U has gone under in 4 out of the last 5. The Spurs have had a lot of injuries and they are just now back. So I will stick with the hot team here and pick:
Denver -4 and the over 191.5