NBA PLAYOFFS

@Rollz

Teasers: 0-1 -1 unit 

Straight ups: 21-17 +1.79 units

Still not over that Miami loss in game 6…I think it could’ve been a potentially demoralizing loss for them as they shot almost 50% from 3 compared to Boston’s 20% and still couldn’t get the win. It seems the momentum has shifted all the way over to Boston and with them coming home you gotta think they win this game. 

The public is all over Miami (80% of spread bets currently), and for good reason they’ve been a great team to back against big spreads. But I think they’re tired and the lack of depth is starting to hurt. Boston has also been good in these situations (have won their last 4 game 7s, including beating Philly by 24 in these playoffs). 

A few more things…

-Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.

-Favorites in game 7 have had much success, and when favored by 3 points or more are 25-14 ATS

-Playing on the road after a close loss has been a bad scenario: Teams coming off losses of 10 points or fewer and playing on the road are just 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in conference finals games dating to 2014

-Since 2005, unders are 37-22 (62.7%) in Game 7s

Teaser - Celtics moneyline/under 213.5 -120 1 unit 

Celtics -7 -115 1 unit 

@Rollz

 Same side,

Good luck Rollz 

I have been burned by Miami many times in these playoffs but this seems like an uphill battle for them in game 1. There are some factors working against them such as coming off a grueling 7 game series; trends support that teams do not perform well in the following game 1. They will also have to travel in to Denver who is 42-7 at home this season, which will be quite literally uphill going up in elevation which can play a factor. I anticipate both teams getting off to slow starts because of the things working against Miami, but also Denver having not played for awhile. An under 1st half could be in play and I now see that trends support 1st half unders, so it will be played. With that being said Denver will likely pull away in the second half and win by double digits. Miami will have to adjust defensively to a much more efficiently run offense, and i believe it may take a game or 2 to do that. That's what im going with, but i must say betting against this Miami team as dogs is tough lol.

Denver -8.5 (-115) 1 unit

1st half under 112.5 (-110) 1 unit

Some things that may be of interest...

- the team that wins the playoff game is 171-17 ATS in the last 3 seasons (this does not include this season)

-Since 2000, no team has won the title with a seed lower than third. In NBA history, only nine teams have even made the Finals as a No. 3 seed or lower.

-Nuggets have done very well against the second half spread this season, going 49-36-1 (58%) overall — the fifth-best team in the NBA. Almost all of that damage has come at home as Denver is 32-15 against the second half spread at home

-Teams coming off a seven-game series are 36-50 (42%) in the following series over the past 35 years. In Game 1 of the following series, they are 33-53

-The profitable angle in the NBA Finals has been the first half under, which is 57-43-4 (57%) since 2005, including 9-3 over the past two finals.

-Beware of public dogs in the NBA Finals. Overall since 2005 they are 21-32 ATS and since 2010, they have only been above .500 ATS in the NBA Finals once in 13 years.

Woooow sorry for the long post folks.  Have had a rough stretch past few plays a fade could be warranted. Anyways BOL to all

Teasers: 0-2 -2 units

Straight ups: 21-18 +.79 units

@Rollz

 Good luck Rollz

BOL @Yessss88 

Teasers: 0-2 -2 units 

Straight ups: 23-18 +2.57 units

Im leaning Denver once again, Miami is shaping up to be a public dog tonight who notoriously do not do well in the nba finals. This Denver team is just so good at home. Will have play in later. GL to all 

Nuggets -8 -120 1 unit 

BOL @Rollz

The nugs are getting allll the action. Currently at DraftKings (Vsin betting splits) they are receiving 76% of spread bets and 85% of the money. You’d think it’s free money. It’s against my nature to follow the herd, and we know Miami can compete with anyone. I like that they are at home where Denver’s home court dominance is neutralized, Denver hasn’t been all that good on the road (23-25). Going to roll with the heat as underdogs once again which is a spot they clearly have thrived in these playoffs.   

Heat +3.5 -120 1 unit 

Additionally…

-Overall, the public has struggled betting the NBA Finals. Teams with 51%+ of betting tickets are 42-57-1 ATS (42.4%) in the NBA Finals since 2005

-Only six teams since 2005 have closed with 80%+ (76% currently) of the spread tickets in the NBA Playoffs. Those six teams are 4-2 straight up, but 0-6 against the spread, failing to cover the number by 5.4 PPG.

-Miami is 8-2 ats in its last 10 home games 

Heat +3 -110 1 unit 

Heat ml +125 1 unit 

GL to all 

@Rollz

Teasers: 0-2 -2 units

Straight ups: 23-22 -1.43

Wish it were a better postseason. It’s been tough to get a read on this Miami team at times and they have single handedly killed my record in these playoffs it feels lol. With that being said I think the season ends tonight. Everything points to a big Denver win tonight so will not overthink it. BOL to all 

Nuggets -8 (-110) 1.5 units 

@Rollz