NBA PLAYOFFS

Very excited for this game 7. I like Celtics at 6 or lower if possible.

Think this spread will be tight but I prefer to be on the side that is at home (home team 105-28 su all time in game 7s). 

The Celtics will also be facing Doc Rivers on the sidelines who’s proven to have a hard time in these situations (6-9 in game 7s) 

Additionally… 

-Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 5-16 SU and 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in the follow-up contests in their last 21 playoff tries

- Winning Game Six has provided a good boost for Game Seven, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in their last nine chances

-NBA favorites covering the spread when winning, combined with underdogs winning outright when covering, have gone 171-13 (meaning whoever wins typically covers)

In the end these are just trends don’t always hold up but Celtics look like the play at home especially with this line tanking. 

Celtics -5 -125 1 unit 

Another winner last night, 7-1 last 8 plays. 
Kinda lean nuggets game 1 but still need to dig into that one.

Teasers: 0-1 -1 unit

Straight ups: 19-12 +5.74 units

The nuggets are now 40-7 at home this year. I would expect them to take this first game. As pointed out in a prior post teams that win su in the playoffs almost always cover as well, don’t have a problem laying the 6. The nuggets were 12-5 ats this season as a 5-7 point favorite. I think they win this one by double digits. Don’t want to overthink it just think nuggets should grab game 1 on their home court and history says if so they should cover in the process..

Additionally: 

-James teams are 3-14 outright and 6-11 ats in games 1s on the road

-Lakers are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Denver

Nuggets -6 -110 1.5 units 

Wednesday:

Will be going with the heat to cover tomorrow. Love fading teams coming off of a game 7. (Teams that win game 7 are 32-49 su in game 1 of the following series) the more well-rested team often times outperforms in these situations so I will ride that tommorow. We know the Celtics are probably a better team than the heat and playing at home, but certain scenarios create good opportunities and I think this is one. 

Additionally:

-6 of the last 9 meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or fewer. 

-Heat are 13-5 ats in the last 18 meetings in Boston.

-Heat are 39-17 ats in their last 56 games playing on 3 or more days rest

Heat +8.5 -120 1.5 units

Straight up record: 19-12-1 +5.74 units 

@Fuse

 We’re 8-1-1 in last 10

Will be looking into tomorrows game. I kinda lean Denver again with that home dominance but no play as of now. 

Straight ups: 20-12-1 +6.99 units

Great job! 

@Flyguy1700

  Thank you my friend 

@Rollz

  Very nice record 

Everyone’s on lakers it seems, and they’re gettin 67% of bets and 70% of the money on the money line on my book. Vegas would be handing away a lot of money on that +175 line if lakers get the w.  I think Denver wins more convincingly tonight, with la likely taking games 3 and 4. Have done well fading the public lately I think this is a good opportunity to do just that with likely the best home team in the league this year. I’ll give up 5.  

Nuggets -5 -125 1 unit 

@Yessss88

 Appreciate you good luck tonight 

Well another push on the nuggets. These lines are really tight…

I went ahead and made a play for Saturday I said lakers should likely win games 3 and 4 so going with this. Not sure about tonight’s game yet. 

Lakers -5 -125 1.5 units 

I think the obvious play is Boston tonight but can they cover that big number? 7 of the last 10 meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 or fewer points. That’s a pretty strong trend but Boston has to come out and put it to them. So I still lean towards Celtics. When looking at the splits apparently Miami is gathering a large majority of bets and money yet that line isn’t moving from what I’ve seen.  I’m gonna take a stab on Boston. I think this is the sharper side and I envision a double digit win. Push last time out not going to record those on record 

Celtics -9 -110 1 unit 

Straight ups- 20-12 +6.99 units 

Lose on Celtics, Jimmy butler is special  hard to bet against him in the playoffs.  

Lakers -5 pending

Straight ups- 20-13 +5.99 units 

Today I’m going with…

Celtics 1st half -1.5 1 unit (-122)

A really good first half team (1st in net rating), that is also a really good road team (29-18 su on the road this season), that is also in desperation mode. I think the Cs come out swinging, just felt this was a safer play than for game. How could I be so confident saying Jimmy doesn’t do what Jimmy does in the 4th. Some strong over trends as well.

Some things that may be of interest:

-Boston is 4-1 ats in last 5 meeting in Miami

-Over is 10-2 in Celtics last 10 road games

-Boston was 43-35 ats in the 1st half of games this season 

-Miami was 33-44-1 ats in the 1st half of games this season 

BOL everyone

Smart play! BOL

@Rollz

 Good luck Rollz 

@MP2056

 Good luck to you my friend 

@Yessss88

 Much appreciated, to you as well.  Good hits last night! 

Hoping to get back on track tonight. I’m giving the lakers one last roll of the dice they should be motivated to avoid the sweep on their home court. 

Lakers -3.5 -110 1 unit 

Straight ups: 20-15 +3.49 units 

Celtics -8 -125 1 unit

Straight ups: 21-16 +3.29 units 

I do favor Miami tonight but it appears Boston is receiving more action so I may wait to make a play at a better number.  No write up traveling for the holiday weekend. Will have play in later. Should be a good one BOL to everyone  

Miami moneyline +120 1.5 units