IH8ColdWeather NBA Playoffs

Alright team, I think that the two games we have on the slate tonight are pure toss ups. The Clippers/Nuggets is just too close to call. I still think Detroit should be able to cover the 7 number but their inexperience was an issue and Tibs doesn't play his bench. Detroit might crap the bed again and so it is hard for me to pull the trigger on them again, knowing they could have another 4th quarter meltdown. Gun to my head in the Nuggets game, I would still roll with the Nuggets because of Jokic and company. However, Jamal Murrays hamstring looked to be bothering him last game and that is something to keep an eye on. I think, at least for tonight, the best way to approach the betting is through the prop angle. I see a couple of props that look a bit off. I also really like Normal Powell to have a bounce back game after he did not play particularly well last game. I like him and his points as well as points/rebounds/assists number, and I also like Aaron Gordon.

Clippers/Nuggets Game #2 PROPS

Aaron Gordon OVER 23.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-120)

Aaron Gordon OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-105)

Norman Powell OVER 16.5 Points (-105)

Normal Powell OVER 20.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-130) - 5 unit max

Powell played 37 minutes and he did not play particularly well. He has the ball in his hands to iso at the end of quarters and has decent shot volume as the #3 option. He can also create his own shot off the dribble, and is a facilitator as well when Harden is on the bench. I really like his OVER 20.5 Points/Rebounds/Assist prob for this game and look for him to bounce back.

Added, Tuesday April 22

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57.5 1st Q (-110) - LARGE

Pacers TT OVER 29.5 1st Q (-120) - REGULAR

I love these two plays. Liliard adds offense, yet he has been out for almost a month and I am certain defense and conditioning will be an issue. Porter adds added offense and I like the pace and scoring for the Bucks to pick up. This first quarter line was sitting at 58.5 and it is moving the opposite direction?? I know in the playoffs first Q totals have been lower but I think there is value here. Pacers love to push the pace

Props:

Wiggins OVER 9.5 points (-125) 

I absolutely love this prop. Against Memphis, he has been terrorizing them. Against Memphis this season, he is averaging 25 minutes per game and 20 points on 13 field goal attempts while shooting 50% from the field. If this is a blowout, which very well may be the case again as evidence by the line, he will get garbage time minutes and should easily hit this over

Giannis OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110)

Lopez will be on the bench when Bucks play small ball and rebounding responsibility falls purely on Giannis. 

Added:

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57 third quarter - medium

Easy cover, no sweat. Wish I went bigger…

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57.5 1st Q (-110) - LARGE 

Pacers TT OVER 29.5 1st Q (-120) - REGULAR 

Almost swept it. 8 points for Wiggins in 7 minutes, I have no idea why they’re playing their starters when they’re up 20 at the end.

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57.5 1st Q (-110)  

Pacers TT OVER 29.5 1st Q (-120) 

Wiggins OVER 9.5 points (-125) 

Giannis OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110) 

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57 third Quarter 

@masterkush

 @415m

 
Rough couple of days, let’s keep it going…

It feels like everybody is on the Rockets today? This should be another excellent game. Houston didn’t shoot particularly well last game and they out rebounded the warriors on the glass. For some reason, I just can’t see it though. GS has been on fire since the Acquisition of Jimmy Butler and I’ll take experience over everything. I like the warriors again and the line keeps moving in our favor… I think I might have seen it tough 4 points at some books which to me is just too much in these contested games.

Not sure about the other two games, will probably look at the prop market with banchero, hero and some of the other superstars to see if anything looks inefficient.

Added:

GS Warriors +4.5 (-115) FULL GAME - LARGE

This really doesn't make much sense to me. The better team is getting 4 points. Yes, I get that they are on the road but the Championship pedigree of this team, with the greatest shooter ever, with Playoff Jimmy Butler and a formidable supporting case going up against an out-coached, inexperienced, and much younger Rockets team? I really think Warriors win this series with a gentleman sweep at 4-1. How has this line steamed 2 points. Everyone is on Houston and that usually means one thing.....the entire forum is on Houston in this dire game 2 situation. Houston cannot go down 2-0 to the Warriors going back to the Bay. But, that is precisely what i see happening. Let us look at their prior matchups:

Sat Nov 2nd - Warriors 127 @ Rockets 121

Thursday Dec 5th - Warriors 99 Rockets 93

Wednesday Dec 11th - Warriors 90 @ Rockets 91

Thursday Feb 12th - Warriors 105 @ Rockets 98

Sunday April 6th - Warriors 96 Rockets 106

Warriors won 3 out of the last 5 games straight up. The game that they lost to the Rockets they lost by only 1 point. I don't see how in such a low scoring playoff game, where the officiating is tight and they are letting guys play, Houston has to lay 4 points now and beat a team with one of the best PG ever to play the game and one of the best playoff performers in Jimmy Butler who rises to the occasion. Give me the Warriors plus the points, large.

Props:

Kel El Ware - UNDER 6.5 rebounds (-115) - 2 units

I like this prop the best. El Ware saw his minutes restricted because both teams chose to play small and the majority of the time Bam was acting as the center. Add to that the size and length of Mobley and Jarrett Allen and this guy will be lucky to grab 3 boards. The number seems WAY too high for me and I think there is value here. Prop bets are usually 0.5 to 1 unit bets but I like the ware under. 

Banchero OVER 25.5 Points (-135) - 1 unit

Franz Wagner OVER 22.5 Points (-125) - 0.5 units

Tyler Herro OVER 23.5 Points (-105) - 1 unit

Davion Mitchell OVER 11.5 points (-105) - 0.5 units

Davion Mitchell OVER 6.5 assists (-105) - 0.5 units

Almost swept the props again, missed the Davion Mitchell assists by 0.5

Kel El Ware - UNDER 6.5 rebounds (-115) - 2 units 

Banchero OVER 25.5 Points (-135) - 1 unit 

Franz Wagner OVER 22.5 Points (-125) - 0.5 units 

Tyler Herro OVER 23.5 Points (-105) - 1 unit 

Davion Mitchell OVER 11.5 points (-105) - 0.5 units 

Davion Mitchell OVER 6.5 assists (-105) - 0.5 units 

GS Warriors +4.5 (-115) FULL GAME - LARGE 

Tough loss for the GSW. Butler gone in the first and Podziemski was under the weather. Steph and Draymond did the best they could and Post came in and hit some big shots but too little, too late. It will be interesting to see Jimmy Butlers MRI. A pelvic contusion is just a bruise on his pelvis, and from the sounds of it nothing is broken. Doubt he broke his tailbone/coccyx and he was able to get up and walk after he landed on his back. It will be interesting to see how the official officiate this series moving forward, especially in the Bay. Things got chippy in Houston and I doubt they will let the Rockets hold curry the way they were in this game as he was coming off screens. 

Thursday, April 24th:

PISTONS +1.5 (-105) 

OKC -2 FIRST QUARTER (-115)

OKC -3.5 FIRST HALF (-110)

OKC TT OVER 59.5 FIRST HALF (-115)

NUGGETS +5.5 (-105)

PROPS:

CHET HOLMGREN OVER 15.5 POINTS - 2 unit play (seems way too low)

JOKIC OVER 9.5 ASSISTS 

JOKIC OVER 27.5 POINTS

JOKIC OVER 1.5 3 pointers made (-165) - I like this bet, but I took it small since the juice is so high. He was 4/8 in game one and attempted 4 threes in game 2

JAMAL MURRAY OVER 20.5 POINTS 

We should see a heavy dose of Jokic and Murray, especially if MPJ is out for the game. Expect a ton of pick and roll, and dump offs to Aaron Gordon. Best bets are probably the Holmgren points total and Jokic assists, both guys should be heavily involved in the game. Knicks are a tough team but they are on the road and Detroit is going to be BUMPING. Detroit will be fired up and the Knicks are a different team away from MSG. I look for Cunningham to take the game over and I look for Beasily to have a nice rebound game after shooting poorly last game, will have to check his props. 

GL tonight 

Nuggets and Pistons.

Lets get er done.

Rough day the other day on the Pistons and Nuggets, lets get back on track. I am off today and had a chance to look at the games...I like the first two games a lot...

Saturday April 26th, 2025

Cleveland Cavaliers -1 First Quarter (-110)

Cleveland Cavaliers -2 First Half (-110)

OKC Thunder -4 First Quarter (-115)

OKC Thunder -8 First Half (-110) - LARGE 

2 team ML parlay: Cavaliers Full Game ML and OKC Thunder First half ML (0.80) - 10 UNIT MAX BET 

PROPS: 

Donavan Mitchell OVER 25.5 points

Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 points 

Cleveland Cavaliers will hopefully show the East why they are the cream of the crop and the best team in the East. They have a killer mentality and their depth is very impressive. They are just too much for Miami. You have to give the Heat their flowers. They do not have the talent to matchup with Cleveland, even though I think Spo is a much better coach. The Heat made it through the play in tournament and are fighting but it is easy to see that they are outclassed. I think Cleveland will come out and set the tone, expecting Miami to be fired up on their home court. I don't like laying almost 6 points on the road but I do like the Cavs in the ML parlay with OKC at half ML. I think OKC knows that they took all the momentum out of the Grizzlies sail last game and they are going to come out and just smoke the Grizzlies who will be without Ja Morant. I like OKC to be up by 10-12 points at half. 

Yesterday proved that these playoff games are dominated by superstars. We should be hitting overs on all Banchero, Wagner, Giannis, Mitchell and Jokic props. Everything flows through these guys on offense and their lines are not really being adjusted. Giannis went over 53.5 on his PRA yesterday with ease. I like Joker and Mitchell to have huge games today, I will be firing over on the points props and probably over on Jokic assists and rebound props depending on what they are.

Rough day the other day on the Pistons and Nuggets, lets get back on track. I am off today and had a chance to look at the games...I like the first two games a lot...

Saturday April 26th, 2025

Cleveland Cavaliers -1 First Quarter (-110)

Cleveland Cavaliers -2 First Half (-110)

OKC Thunder -4 First Quarter (-115)

OKC Thunder -8 First Half (-110) - LARGE 

2 team ML parlay: Cavaliers Full Game ML and OKC Thunder First half ML (0.80) - 10 UNIT MAX BET 

PROPS: 

Donavan Mitchell OVER 25.5 points

Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 points 

Cleveland Cavaliers will hopefully show the East why they are the cream of the crop and the best team in the East. They have a killer mentality and their depth is very impressive. They are just too much for Miami. You have to give the Heat their flowers. They do not have the talent to matchup with Cleveland, even though I think Spo is a much better coach. The Heat made it through the play in tournament and are fighting but it is easy to see that they are outclassed. I think Cleveland will come out and set the tone, expecting Miami to be fired up on their home court. I don't like laying almost 6 points on the road but I do like the Cavs in the ML parlay with OKC at half ML. I think OKC knows that they took all the momentum out of the Grizzlies sail last game and they are going to come out and just smoke the Grizzlies who will be without Ja Morant. I like OKC to be up by 10-12 points at half. 

Yesterday proved that these playoff games are dominated by superstars. We should be hitting overs on all Banchero, Wagner, Giannis, Mitchell and Jokic props. Everything flows through these guys on offense and their lines are not really being adjusted. Giannis went over 53.5 on his PRA yesterday with ease. I like Joker and Mitchell to have huge games today, I will be firing over on the points props and probably over on Jokic assists and rebound props depending on what they are.

Cleveland Cavaliers -1 First Quarter (-110)  

Cleveland Cavaliers -2 First Half (-110)  

2-0 to start the day. I am feeling good about my read on the OKC game. Should be very similar to this Heat game. Just a superior team who will look to step on the neck of an inferior opponent and sweep the series to get rest vs their next opponent. Grizzlies are without Ja Morant. I just see the Thunder coming out and smoking the Grizzlies at home. I love the Thunder -8, I see this as a blowout at halftime. 

Thank you again for the monster 2 team max wager parlay monster banggerrr, that last one was a sweat

Cleveland Cavaliers -1 First Quarter (-110) 

Cleveland Cavaliers -2 First Half (-110) 

OKC Thunder -4 First Quarter (-115) 

OKC Thunder -8 First Half (-110) - LARGE 

2 team ML parlay: Cavaliers Full Game ML and OKC Thunder First half ML (0.80) - 10 UNIT MAX BET 

PROPS: 

Donavan Mitchell OVER 25.5 points 

Nikola Jokic OVER 26.5 points 

1-1 in props, 3-2 in sides/totals. Luckily, the parlay hit. We have a monster day if OKC does what they are supposed to do and puts the Grizzlies away in the first half. They shot below 20% from 3 point range and Caruso missed some free throws, Dort, Holmgren and Wallace all missed wide open 3's in the first half which surely would have allowed us to win the OKC bets. Oh well...... I am going back to the well again tomorrow with the Pacers/Bucks 1st Q OVER 55.5 again. The score in the last game was 17-16 with over 5 minutes left in the first when both teams brought in their reserves who went on a horrific shooting slump. TJ McConnel slows pace down which is super annoying and Thomas Bryant is a foot shooting stupid shots. I am hoping that we get the pace that we are accustomed to. If they make their shots, this total will soar over 55.5. 

Sunday, April 27th

Added:

Detroit Pistons ML (-130) - 2 units

Pacers/Bucks OVER 55.5 1st Quarter (-110) - MAX BET

I have to go back to the well. The Pacers and Bucks first quarter total sits just way too low. If these teams play at the pace they are accustomed to and manage to not shoot below 20% from 3 point range, this will be an easy cover. If either team shoots like 17% from 3, which has happened before, then this bet is cooked. I am taking it again though. I see value there.

PROPS:

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 10.5 Assists

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 33 Points/Rebounds/Assists

Giannis OVER 32.5 Points

Tim Hardaway Junior OVER 10.5 points - 2 units

Malik Beasley OVER 13.5 points - 2 units

I really like the Hardaway points prop. He usually plays well at home, and he had 24 points last game and I believe he had 18 in game 1. He should be able to get 10 in his sleep as long as he is hitting his 3s and making his free throws. The number is low because he laid a goose egg in game 2 with 0 points but since they are down 2-1, I expect maximal effort today from Detroit and like them to win the game SU. 

Going heavy today. Hoping the Pacers push pace and close out at home after we got burned by a point on a few over their overs. I have a 3 team ML parlay pending with Cavs/Warriors/Pacers that pays +150, 10 units to win 15 units. May try to middle with Bucks +8 to hedge my position incase Giannis has a hero game.

I am also pending Denver to beat Clippers 4-3 in the series at 9/1, 3 units to win 27 units.

Added:

Pacers -2.5 1st Quarter (-115) - 2 units

Pacers -4.5 First Half  (-110) - 2 unit

Pacers/Bucks 3rd Quarter OVER 55.5 (-110) - Best Bet 5 units 

Props:

Halliburton over 10.5 assists - 2 units

Pascal Siakam OVER 20.5 points

Garry Trent Junior OVER 12.5 points - best bet

Kevin Porter Junior OVER 14.5 points - small

with Dame being out, the Pacers will zero in on Giannis. He is a one man show and can’t do it all on his own. I actually think the Bucks will put up a fight and won’t go down easily. Giannis, Porter and Trent Jr will have to carry the offensive load, as Portis and Lopez have been very quiet all series and their points and Dames points should get redistributed to the guards. I really like the Trent Junior points line and could see him going off. 

Pacers, absolute Bums. Doc Rivers finally figured it out. Surround Giannis with players who can actually shoot (Trent, Green, Porter) rather than Kuzma and Torian Prince. Look what happens…