Main variables: Home/away; Days rest; previous head to head scoring
Most emphatically indicated tonight:
Celtics/Magic under
Hawks/Rockets under
Wizards/Thunder under
Bobcats/Bucks over
What do you think?
NIL
Main variables: Home/away; Days rest; previous head to head scoring
Most emphatically indicated tonight:
Celtics/Magic under
Hawks/Rockets under
Wizards/Thunder under
Bobcats/Bucks over
What do you think?
NIL
Main variables: Home/away; Days rest; previous head to head scoring
Most emphatically indicated tonight:
Celtics/Magic under
Hawks/Rockets under
Wizards/Thunder under
Bobcats/Bucks over
What do you think?
NIL
(go to a site like vegasinsider for the convenience of having all of a team's games lined up vertically.)
Note a teams home and away avg. (not the over all average.) (this is easy to find info)
find tonights game and note whether it is a 3rd in 4 nights, a third of 4 in 5 nights, a back to back. This the key situation. You want to know whether (for instance) they scored more or less than the seasonal home/away average and if they gave up more points than that avg. in the 2nd game of back to back.
Find on the vertical list of games as many situations as possible that are exactly like the situation of tonights game. If the score was over the situational average for that one game notate an "o"; if less, notate a "u". Do the same for the points they gave up.
As you are going through the list of a teams games, know that you need to be careful of how many days rest they had. This is another key: If the amount of rest is not the same, then you can't use the listed game for comparison.
When you've done both teams in tonights game, count the noted "o"s and "u"s. More "o"s mean the game is going over. More "u"s
mean the game is going under.
You've got to have League awareness so that you consider players going on and off the injury list and what that is likely to mean to their teams.
You've got to evaluate the effects of revenge games and overtime games as well.
That is the system I'm trying for now. I just made it up. I am willing to tweak it should I find a reason to.
NIL
(go to a site like vegasinsider for the convenience of having all of a team's games lined up vertically.)
Note a teams home and away avg. (not the over all average.) (this is easy to find info)
find tonights game and note whether it is a 3rd in 4 nights, a third of 4 in 5 nights, a back to back. This the key situation. You want to know whether (for instance) they scored more or less than the seasonal home/away average and if they gave up more points than that avg. in the 2nd game of back to back.
Find on the vertical list of games as many situations as possible that are exactly like the situation of tonights game. If the score was over the situational average for that one game notate an "o"; if less, notate a "u". Do the same for the points they gave up.
As you are going through the list of a teams games, know that you need to be careful of how many days rest they had. This is another key: If the amount of rest is not the same, then you can't use the listed game for comparison.
When you've done both teams in tonights game, count the noted "o"s and "u"s. More "o"s mean the game is going over. More "u"s
mean the game is going under.
You've got to have League awareness so that you consider players going on and off the injury list and what that is likely to mean to their teams.
You've got to evaluate the effects of revenge games and overtime games as well.
That is the system I'm trying for now. I just made it up. I am willing to tweak it should I find a reason to.
NIL
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