*5*

Over 224 (5x)-115

Run and Gun INDY!.

BOL

Good luck Tweets.  

T50

GL  on your play total @tweets50 

   GL tonight 

Can’t believe the spread is +9.5 after everything we’ve seen up to this point. Strange?

GL 

@tweets50

Congrats OKC / OVER backers/ Indy 2ndH

McConnell the roadrunner saved the day

I felt like the side could have went either way but the OVER was the play. Esp. when line dropped to 223. Books overemphasized the under movement and grabbing Under bettors. 

But McConnell should be the MVP if Indy wins. He made the difference all series. Unless the Pacers start working the ball inside vs passing backwards, Pacers are toast. 

You're saying that your conviction in the over increased when the line dropped to 223? And the books overemphasized the under movement and grabbing more under bettors.

Does "overemphasizing the under movement' mean they moved the line more than the money dictated? And you're interpreting this as having been done to grab even more under money?

Stew

When the line move 1 point or point and a half close to gametime, what are your thoughts? Does it mean I should bet the UNDER because of the line move? In my opnion--The line move was a reverse line move. A line move that influences under bettors to place a bet. I rarely go with the line move, just before gametime. When the line opened at 224.5 and OVER/UNDER previous lines were 228/229 and went under 2 games before. I felt that 224.5 was a direct pitch from the books to sway more UNDER bettors because it was already lower from the previous two games which went UNDER. So, from a paradigm standpoint most if not all would think UNDER is the play where I felt like the OVER was the 5* play based on the numbers I looked at. Trends are not always our friends especially in this case. 

Also a case can be made, "Lot of under money coming in"---to sway a line move. I don't buy that most of the time especially if the handle/ money sides don't change either. 

@tweets50

It never previously was part of my thinking that books really knew anything or would try to influence bettors. Not that I had any information for or against that, rather I had never broached the subject. I was more heavily into sports prognostication; I was self reliant, thinking I could, in the majority of cases, acquire all the relevant information on my own, and once I had that, believing I could analyze the info as well as or better than anybody. I would look at significant line movements, and unless I could find a factual basis for it, I wouldn't be influenced.

If there was a 1 or 1 1/2 pt. move as gametime approached, i would simply assume it was a syndicate move, but this was before I was aware of money % data. Now that I'm more aware of that, your explanation does makes sense, and I'll be keeping an eye on this going forward. 

@tweets50

Are your thoughts on the o/u line movement in Gm. 5 applicable to the pointspread movement in gm. 7? It seems like a very similar scenario (although the move is not close to gametime).  I'm seeing the line having moved from an opener of 9 in most places, to a consensus (as of this writing) of 7.5 dog -115. The line came down in stages, but the full pt. drop from 8.5 down to 7.5 came within less than an hour, between about 10 and 11 am Fri. (EDT). This, like with the total in Gm. 5, doesn't seem to be supported by an influx of  money on one side, as the money %s stand, as of this writing, at Indiana 53 to OKC 47.

Are you viewing this move similarly to the move on GM. 5's total, where you conclude that the books believe Indy is the wrong side, and are exaggerating the line movement to grab more Indy money?

I am noticing, as a point of interest, that the ML money %s are quite one sided here, 83 to 17 Indy as of this writing. Would something like this be a factor in your thinking regarding the pointspread movement?

Stew,

It's still too early and I'd like to see more late money and the direction of the line move. However, I have based leans at this moment base on game 7 historically. This game has its own catagory of numbers to look at based on past history. 

We can say this now:

The "public" is on the over 214.5 which opened at 215.5 73/27 percent. Handle is about the same. I think we will see more OKC money as we get closer to gametime. 

The ATS line is now 7.5 which opened at 8.5. I was able to buy half at a fairly cheap price at +9 Indy(-115) at open. Since then, its has gone down to 8 or 7.5. I took this  as a feeler bet. Based on the last game, I saw some really big adjustments defesively by INDY to sway me to go that way and I think this momentum carries over and so now we are seeing the line move as a reaction. I believe late money will come on OKC and keep this percentage to a 60/40 or close. 

So before we get into line movement and ATS sides, you have to figure out WHO do you think is going to win. This is where I start. Pros and Cons for both teams. I can write a book here but as an example.. Go with the trend OKC -7.5(6-0 SU 4-2 ATS after a loss). The line is definitely in your range(similiar to game 1 and 2). Maybe wait till gametime and see if it goes down to 6.5 or 6(which I doubt strongly). So OKC line does look inticing, and from the outside looking in; now you may be thinking the "public is wrong" since the line has moved opposite the handle/money side. ITS TOO EARLY. WAIT and see tomorrow. 

I lean Indy at this point. line move or not. I believe "respected" money moves lines in a short time, such as Billy Walters attacked 6 different books at the same time. It's no secret, but I'm a joe shmo. When I lay ten dimes it does not move lines or mountains. LOL. But we can learn from early line movement and see as it gets closer to gametime how confident we are on a side. I view this game completely different from game 5 because of what's at stake. Historically, game 7 has gone under the total. However, O/U have averaged 226.6 at OKC during the series and now we are looking at 214.5? I am not strong on the over under as in game 5 and 6. However, OVER has been the trend at OKC mainly because of the +11.6 offensive variance home vs away. But, do the book smell weakness here on OKC? Indy had proven they don't break down on the road. 

My thoughts early is INDY covers and this game goes under as if this was a home game for INDY based on the line presented and game 7's finals all time stats. 

But ask yourself before you get trapped by line movement betting..WHO is going to win? Remember, books utlimately want even money plus juice.  Also, there is a lot riding on OKC futures taking a hit at the books should they win. Lot's of variables for books to win or lose. One thing is for sure, books want an INDY win. OKC has heavy futures bets riding and series bets live. 

I believe that they do.

What do you mean exactly when you say that Indy hasn't broken down on the road? For 11 of 12 quarters at Paycom they've been on the outside looking in

I do have a side which I favor. Waiting to see what tale later line movement might tell, if any.

What I mean is INDY has played well on the road this series 1-2 ATS on the road. Should have been 2-1 ATS if Matherin did his job. They don't just give up double digit leads and lay down like you seen in other teams in the playoffs. Also, line was -9 at OKC last game now -7. Do you feel this is a trap? As I said earlier post #17 money is coming in on OKC and evening up the handle/percentage. So the dog is getting sharp money now IMO per action network. Bettors are seeing value on -7 right now. As I said ealier I highly doubt it goes to -6, so OKC looks really good right now for those bettors. Line moves in OKC favor yet over/under goes up .5 a point. 

Bet your conviction on this one if you are confident> 

"All the marbles" as SGA said. OKC weakness is youth and Indy's coaching adjustments wins this for Indy. Books smell it.

I don't have a subscription to Action Network. and they only show the spread ticket % to the public. I've been using sportsbettingdime, which seems to be based on the same data, and gives ticket AND money %s for spread, total, and ML. Firstly, as of 1:34 pm (EDT) they're showing 52-48 ticket % in favor of Indy, and 51-49 money % in favor of OKC. I that in line with what you see at AN?

Secondly, if that is the same data that you're seeing, are you interpreting that the books have moved the line downward off of sharp bets, and disregarded the large bets from random sources?   

I have emailed Colin at Action Network and its "confidential" what books they extract info from. They are showing the same data I see as a promotion, but normally you only see the side or nothing at all with now subscription. The money is basically swinging OKC way now but Draftkings splits are different and so are the clients. I think its sharp money on INDY and OKC. The line was -9 last home game for OKC, just keep that in mind. OKC covered.

GL

@tweets50