Yesterday: 5-4, +1.36 units
Season: 115-128, -7.31 units
Man, I know I shouldn't complain after a winning day. But all 5 of the games I was right on, my team won by multiple runs. And the four losses? A 1 run loss in extra innings, a half-run loss on a total, a 1 run loss, and an extra inning loss. A few breaks in the close games and instead of just a small winning day it could have been a big one.
Today, before I head to Oriole Park to see if the Orioles can avoid being swept for the first time all year:
Tigers -102 vs White Sox (FanDuel) -- as I noted yesterday, the Tigers actually have a better record and we are getting deep enough into the season that you can start judging teams more by their records then their preseason predictions. The lines sometimes lag a bit in making this adjustment. And today, at home, with the pitcher who is having a far better year, they look like the better team to me. Don't forget that bad White Sox bullpen. Until Liam Hendriks gets back and every one can move down one spot to a lower pressure role, it is really hurting them.
Giants -120 vs Brewers (BetDSI) -- as I also pointed out yesterday, for a month now the Giants have been playing really good baseball, and the Brewers haven't. These teams have identical records because SF was bad in April and Milwaukee was good, but the recent trend is the other way around. And Alex Cobb is pitching better than Rea.
Twins -104 vs Blue Jays (FanDuel) -- two teams with comparable records, but Minnesota is at home. I was skeptical of Ober but he now has 6 starts under his belt and has pitched really well. Berrios really hasn't been right since the start of last season.
Nationals -102 vs Royals (BetDSI) -- you could almost substitute yesterday's writeup for today's and just substitute Gore's name for Urias. Nats are the better team, Royals are awful at home, Nats have a young pitcher on the mound who has been a highly touted prospect and now is living up to that by pitching very well in the majors. Royals are starting Daniel Lynch, who has a career ERA well over 5 an who is making his first start of the year off a shoulder injury. Guys making their first starts off major injuries often don't last more than 4 innings or so, which means we should see a lot more of KC's terrible bullpen today. Washington's pen isn't good either, but at least Gore is averaging over 5 innings per start.
Diamondbacks -118 vs Red Sox (FanDuel) -- once again, two teams with similar records, but Arizona is at home with the better pitcher on the mound, yet the -118 price is not terribly steep. Red Sox score far less on the road than at home.
Pirates +123 vs Mariners (BetDSI) -- no, I'm not crazy about Pittsburgh starter Ortiz, and the Pirates are on the road against a better team. But the Pirates have significantly better numbers hitting lefties than righties, an Marco Gonzales is having a very up and down season, he has been good in quite a few games but absolutely awful in others. And as someone who typically bets more underdogs than favorites, placing 5 bets already where my odds started with a minus sign just felt wrong! I had to find at least one dog to back today.
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