MLB | Sep 16, 2014 Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers -140 at 5DIMES

The Tigers send Rick Porcello (15-11, 3.23 ERA) to the hill in search of his 16th victory; Porcello pitched well, but was handed his 11th loss despite holding the Royals to just two runs over 6 2/3 innings on Wednesday. Porcello has to be feeling pretty confident in a bounce back here, the right-hander is 8-6 with a solid 3.84 ERA lifetime vs. the Twins. Minnesota counters with Ricky Nolasco (5-11, 5.64 ERA); Nolasco took his fifth straight loss Thursday despite allowing just a single run over seven innings against the Indians. Note that the Twins have lost each of Nolasco's last seven starts and I think he’ll have his hands full with the hard-hitting Tigers today, note that in his only start against Detroit he gave up nine hits and three runs over 5 1/3 innings. The Tigers have won four in row and seven of eight coming in; conversely, Minnesota has won just twice in its last 10 games and is in full on rebuilding and prospects mode at this point of the season. The Tigers are still in a division race and will look to take advantage of a Twins team which has gone just 30-43 at Target Field (note that Detroit is 42-33 as a visitor this year). It is no surprise to learn that the Tigers are 16-9 versus the Twins the last three seasons and I think we see that gap widen; consider taking DETROIT as a moderate size road favorite.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Cleveland Indians vs. Houston Astros Cleveland Indians
-173  at  5DIMES

With Corey Kluber pitching, the Indians should handle the Astros.  They did lose to them Monday, but this is their ace in a 'must-win' spot.  Expect a different result today.

Kluber should have been an All-Star. He has a 15-9 record, 2.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.   Coming off two very impressive outings, his chances of dominating again are strong.  He threw a complete game against the White Sox on Sept 6th then was two outs shy of doing the same thing again Thursday vs. Minnesota.  He's allowed only 3 runs and 13 hits in the two starts.

Houston goes with the relatively unknown commodity Nick Tropeano.  He did win his first start as a big +215 underdog against Hisashi Iwakuma last week, but the odds are against history repeating itself here.  The Astros have only had six win streaks all season of at least three games.

Over 15 starts, Kluber has a 1.65 ERA with 116 strikeouts. The team is 14-5 when he's coming off a quality outing.

Houston is only 17-46 if their opponent scored two runs or less in the last game.  They are also 37-92 vs. a starter with a WHIP below 1.15. 1

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Total
8 ov+102  at  PINNACLE
Liam Hendriks has a 7.35 ERA over his last three starts. Chris Bassit has a 4.38 ERA in his two starts this year. Hendriks is 0-3 when starting against White Sox with an ERA of 6.64 and a WHIP of 1.426 in his career. We have a projection of 10 runs this game.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants
-122  at  PINNACLE
The San Francisco Giants (82-68) are inching closer to clinching a spot in the postseason.  They are four games clear of Milwaukee for one of the two wild card spots in the National League.  They certainly don't want to mess around and lose to lowly Arizona (62-88) tonight.

Jake Peavy has really showed the type of competitor he is here of late when the games have mattered most.  He has gone 5-1 with a 1.12 ERA in his last six starts.  He has given up just five earned runs over 40 1/3 innings during this stretch, which is one of the best of his career.

Josh Collmenter is having a pretty solid season overall for the Diamondbacks.  He has gone 10-7 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 25 starts and five relief appearances in 2014.  Collmenter sports a 4.06 ERA in six career starts against San Francisco.  Meanwhile, Peavy has won each of his last four starts against Arizona.

The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Diamondbacks are 15-38 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 6-21 in its last 27 games as an underdog.  San Francisco is 16-6 in its last 22 meetings in Arizona.

The San Francisco Giants (82-68) are inching closer to clinching a spot in the postseason.  They are four games clear of Milwaukee for one of the two wild card spots in the National League.  They certainly don't want to mess around and lose to lowly Arizona (62-88) tonight.

Jake Peavy has really showed the type of competitor he is here of late when the games have mattered most.  He has gone 5-1 with a 1.12 ERA in his last six starts.  He has given up just five earned runs over 40 1/3 innings during this stretch, which is one of the best of his career.

Josh Collmenter is having a pretty solid season overall for the Diamondbacks.  He has gone 10-7 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 25 starts and five relief appearances in 2014.  Collmenter sports a 4.06 ERA in six career starts against San Francisco.  Meanwhile, Peavy has won each of his last four starts against Arizona.

The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Diamondbacks are 15-38 in their last 53 vs. a team with a winning record.  Arizona is 6-21 in its last 27 games as an underdog.  San Francisco is 16-6 in its last 22 meetings in Arizona.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals
-143  at  PINNACLE

This is a great spot to jump on the Cardinals at home against the Brewers. St Louis will be looking to maintain their 3.5-game lead in the NL Central at Busch Stadium, where they are a dominant 47-28 on the season, which is the 3rd best home record of any team in the league.

St Louis will send out Lance Lynn, who comes in at 15-9 with a dominant 2.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 30 starts. Lynn hasn't had much trouble slowing down the Brewers, as he's 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA over his last 5 starts against Milwaukee. Hard to not like the Cardinals chances here with Milwaukee sending out Wily Peralta. In his last 3 starts, Peralta has a 5.74 ERA and 1.787 WHIP and comes in with a 4.60 ERA and 1.468 WHIP over 8 career starts vs St Louis.

Key Trends - St Louis is 19-2 in their last 21 home games in the month of September, 18-3 in their last 21 home games after a day off and 20-7 in their last 27 as a home favorite.

System - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 who are starting a pitcher that has a 1.250 to 1.350 WHIP on the season and a team OBP of .310 or worse are just 78-199 (28%) against the money line since 1997.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds
-110  at  BETONLINE

Even losing 1-0 to the Cubs last night, Cincinnati still has won 21 of the past 27 times at Wrigley Field. Chicago is not showing much of a pulse going 2-8 in its last 10 games with seven of those defeats coming by four or more runs. The Cubs have scored less than four runs in eight of their past 10 games.

Now they face Johnny Cueto, perhaps the top right-hander in the National League. Cueto is attempting to win his 19th game, which would tie Clayton Kershaw for the league lead. Cueto has a 2.15 ERA on the season and is in excellent form again winning his last three starts while posting a 1.17 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 23 innings. 

Cueto has a lifetime 2.97 ERA versus the Cubs in 21 starts. He's also held Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs' main source of power, to just two hits in 18 at bats.

The Reds are 20-8 in Cueto's last 28 starts, including going 14-4 in his last 18 outings. Cueto out-trumps Cubs starter Jake Arrieta, who is pitching well but does have a 6.55 ERA in two starts against the Reds this year.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers
-128  at  BETONLINE

Detroit Tigers -128

The Key: The Tigers are showing value at this price given with Porcello on the mound.  They are 4-0 in their last four games and 6-0 in their last six games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  Porcello has been at his best on the road where he has a 2.48 ERA.  The Tigers are 5-0 in his last five starts on five days' rest and 41-16 in his last 57 division starts.  He has a solid 3.84 ERA in 21 career starts versus the Twins, and the Tigers are 6-1 in his last seven road starts versus Minnesota.  The Twins are a dismal 31-72 in their last 103 home games versus winning teams and bringing Nolasco to the mound doesn't offer much hope.  The right-hander has a 5.64 ERA on the season, and the Twins are 0-7 in his last seven starts.  The Tigers are 24-11 in their last 35 meetings in Minnesota.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays
+101  at  5DIMES

This play is a pure fade of Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez. He was having a terrible season before he got hurt and since coming back to the team has been working as much out of the pen as in the rotation.

Down a big bat, in games that are becoming less meaningful and against a functional offensive club, I don’t see how Baltimore can be made the favourite. He is also 0-2 against the Jays this season.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees
+107  at  BOVADA
The Tampa Bay Rays won last night's opener of this three game set versus the New York Yankees as they scored the games only run in the ninth inning. The Yankees offense has struggled as of late, but they always have a chance of winning when they send Pineda to the mound.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Yankees will hand the ball to Michael Pineda (3-4, 2.20 ERA) who's coming off his season worst performance as he was smashed by the Rays on Sep 11. He's having a great season though, not allowing more than two runs in any of his nine games previous to that, and has been strong under the lights going 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA. The Rays will counter with Jake Odorizzi (10-12, 4.08 ERA) who was lit up by the Yankees his last time out. The right-hander surrendered six runs on five hits lasting only 4 1/3 innings on Sep 10. He's struggled with the Yankees all season long, posting a 7.71 ERA over 14 innings.   

2. Home woes - The Rays are a fairly weak home team, going only 34-42 for the season and they've lost four of their last five games at Tropicana Field.  

3. X-factor - Brian McCann has owned Odorizzi, going 5-for-7 with two homers and four RBIs in their previous meetings. 

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Miami Marlins
+135  at  BETONLINE
New York is favored, but not having a great season in fourth place with a losing record. The Mets offensive is unimpressive, 25th in runs scored, 24th in on base percentage and 29th in slugging and batting. The Mets are 5-11 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter and face a decent righty in Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 3.75 ERA on the road. The Mets have hit .200 off him this season and the Mets are 0-4 in Bartolo Colon's last 4 home starts. Colon was ejected during Thursday's game against Washington. He surrendered six runs -- five earned -- and seven hits in just three innings.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates
-179  at  PINNACLE
There are a lot of bad pitchers taking the mound this time of the year simply because they are auditioning for the following season. They are pitching on clubs that have been eliminated long ago and the organization simply wants to see what kind of stuff the kid has. They really aren’t quite ready for the big leagues and they get their brains beat in more times than not. All of the above applies to Red Sox starter Anthony Ranaudo. The 25-year old right-hander has been terrible in his five starts, but the team continues to trot him out there to get a closer look at him. Ranaudo comes into Tuesday’s start with a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP and he’s fortunate that the damage hasn’t been worse. He’s lucked out with an 84% strand rate and .239 BABIP against, so he could easily have an ERA in the 6’s right now. He’ll face a very tough Pittsburgh lineup on Tuesday, and it’s an important game for the Pirates. They are currently in the second NL wild card spot with the Brewers hot on their trail. Every game is huge from this point on, so they are going to be playing their optimal lineup and only using the top relievers in the bullpen on a nightly basis. The same can’t be said of Boston. Charlie Morton gets the ball in this matchup as he returns from a hernia injury. He looked good in his rehab start last week and is having a nice season overall with a 3.84 ERA. The Red Sox are just biding their time until the offseason while the Pirates are completely focused. Throw in the huge edge on the mound and the Pirates have value here at home.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Total
7 un-104  at  PINNACLE
The Braves are a streaky team, and they've lost four straight heading into tonight's home game versus Washington. The bats have been pretty quiet during this losing skid, as they've managed just eight runs in those four losses. It's not going to get any easier tonight, facing Tanner Roark (13-10, 2.96 ERA). The right-hander allowed a pair of runs on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings in a win over the Mets his last time out. He's faced the Braves three times so far this season, most recently in a 4-1 win at Turner Field on August 9. He surrendered just one run on six hits over seven innings in that game. 

The Braves hand the ball to veteran Aaron Harang, who is coming off a dominant outing versus the Nats. The 36 year old gave up just one run (unearned), while striking out nine through seven innings in a win at Washington. He's 2-0 with an 0.60 ERA in his three previous meetings with the Nats this season. 

Both starting pitchers will be happy to hear that Tim Welke is calling balls and strikes today, as he's known to have a very generous strike zone. The Nats have seen the total go under in 21 of 29 games with Welke behind home plate.

Love all the play gonna play 2* each GL zelo123

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland A's Oakland A's
-1½-109  at  PINNACLE

The Oakland A’s are looking to maintain if not increase their lead in the AL Wild Card race. The will be taking on the worst team in baseball in Texas. The A’s haven’t been great themselves down the stretch.

The Rangers will be facing Scott Kazmir, who is 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA in his last four starts. his last loss was tough though as he three a complete game four hitter and lost 1-0.He has won both starts against Texas this season to improve to 8-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 16 career outings.

They should be able to score against Texas' Nick Tepesch who is trying avoid a seventh straight winless start. Tepesch is a rotten 4-10 with a 4.47 ERA on the season. He was hit hard his last start giving three runs and a career-high 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings. Against Oakland, Tepesch is 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA in three starts and two relief outings. Both of his starts against the A's this season have been losses.

The A's dropped the first three meetings in the season series but have gone 7-2 against Texas since. The Rangers dropped two of three in their last visit to Oakland from June 16-19, which started their current run of 28 losses in 35 games within the AL West.

The A’s will score a lot of runs this game and Kazmir is coming off the best start of the year.  I see the A’s wining a lopsided game, so I feel comfortable laying the 1.5 runs.

MLB  |  Sep 16, 2014
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays New York Yankees
+105  at  PINNACLE

The Yankees are showing solid value here as a small road dog against the Rays. While New York was eliminated from any chance of winning the AL East, they still are not officially out of earning a Wild Card spot, though it doesn't look good. I expect the Yankees to continue to hold on to hope until they mathematically eliminated.

I like their chances of getting a win in this one behind starter Michael Pineda, who comes in with an impressive 2.20 ERA and 0.907 WHIP over 10 starts. Pineda didn't have anywhere close to his best stuff in his most recent start against the Rays, yet was still able to limit them to 4 runs over 7 1/3 innings of a 5-4 win. I'll take my chances on Pineda rebounding and out-pitching Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi, who has an ugly 7.71 ERA and 1.714 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Yankees (all 3 starts have come this season).

New York is 33-16 in their last 52 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game and 5-1 in their last 6 road games with a total set at 6.5 or lower. Tampa Bay is just 2-6 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less and 4-10 in their last 14 with a total of 6.5 or lower.

Teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are averaging 4.2 runs or less per game against a starter with a ERA of 4.20 or better after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less are 53-29 since 1997. That's a 65% system in favor of the Yankees.

BEST OF LUCK TONIGHT ZELO

 

GL tonight Zelo