I'm on the Atlanta Braves for 15 units at +116.
I'm on record referring to Aaron Nola as a fraud. I want to take that back. First off, that wasn't very nice and second, he's not the true definition of a fraud. What I should've said is in my opinion, he is overrated based on his past. He came into the post season with a 12-9 record, 4.46 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP. Those are some of the worst numbers of his career. Those numbers would place most pitchers as the #3 or even #4 stater in a rotation (depending on the team). He looked very good against a bad Miami team, so I'm not putting much weight into that game. In fact, I think we're getting a bit of an inflated line due to that performance. On the season, Miami's offense was middle of the pack at best and the team had a run differential of -57. They really had no business in the playoffs. Skip Schumaker should win manager of the year for what he did with that bad team.
I've written enough about the Atlanta Braves offense. If you want to see why I believe they're the most prolific offense of all time, you can check out one of my other write ups on this team. The bottom line is they're far and away the best offense in MLB and it's not even close. It doesn't matter if they're at home, on the road, facing right handed pitching, or left handed... they lead the league in every meaningful statistical category by a landslide.
I was concerned after game 1 and the beginning of game 2 that the week off had put the offense to sleep. However, Travis d'Arnaud and Austin Riley woke the bats up near the end of game 2 and that's bad news for Aaron Nola. I expect that to carry over to game 3 because that's what this offense does. They get hot and stay hot. Momentum is key in MLB, and it appears the Braves stole it from Philly.
On the other side, Philly will see rookie, Bryce Elder. Elder had a solid rookie season. He posted a 12-4 record, 3.81 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. However, he had trouble in his last 3 outings, giving up 28 hits, and 16 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. I believe this was due to fatigue more than anything else. It's now been just over 2 weeks since he last pitched, which I think will benefit his arm strength. If he does show signs of weakness, I'm confident his leash will be short. Snitker can turn to Smith-Shawvner and/or a very capable bullpen to jump in at any time. Although, I believe Elder will show up and pitch a decent game. I think this kid has a very bright future in the big leagues.
Lastly, the way game 2 ended was demoralizing to say the least for Philly. They had the Braves on the ropes and could not put them away. And the way they lost with that Harris catch and doubling off Harper was a back breaker. They can tell us all they want that they've moved on. But, I'm sure the team is still reeling and thinking about how they let one slip away. It was a true momentum swing and I'm not sure it's one they can come back from.
This game reminds of the Astros/Twins game yesterday. 2 starters that are about a wash, but two lineups on completely different levels. I expect Elder to keep them in the game and the offense to do the rest. In my opinion, Philly and Nola just don't have the fire power to keep up with Atlanta.
Give me the Braves at +116 for 15 units.
BOL to everyone!
Cheers,
Kaufee
I'm tailing 
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