Average Teams 3 Game Martingale

How many games should an average team (between .400 & .600 record) win in a 3 game series?

1.

That's the logic that resulted in a over 30 unit gain last year between the ASG and the end of the regular season.

In essence, I was looking for average-ish teams with a record between .4 50 & .650, so about 12 teams.  Then, I ditched any 1 or 2 game series.  In 4 game series, I ignored the first game.

Took the ML bet unless it was showing better than -200, then I went with the RL.  1u for the 1st game, 2u for the 2nd game, 4u for the 3rd game.  If they won the 1st, didn't play the 2nd or 3rd.  Win the 2nd, didn't play the 3rd.  Lost the 3rd...down 7u.  If the RL lost but the team won, the series was abandoned since the win occurred.  When two average teams were playing, I'd usually went with the better paying ML for the 1st game; a winner there meant I could play the other team for the next one or two games.  Max gain of 2u or max loss of 2u for the series (the max loss never occurred in this scenario - only missed out on doubling up since the other team got their win and I rode my 1st game loser to a win).

Here's the plan: in the week of opening day, see how the talking heads are ranking teams 1-32.  Trash the top 10 and bottom 10, giving us at least 12 teams deemed average.  Those will be the teams til the end of May when I readjust and see just who are the average teams based on the earlier parameters.  The new list will take us to the ASG.  Week of the ASG, make that final list of average teams and ride them till the end of the season.

I'll plan on posting the first 12 teams around the 26th. Welcome any thoughts or inputs in the mean time.

...did I really just do that?

Took 10 teams during that period, but forgot that I added 2 more in late August.  Enter fuzzy math and me forgetting what 5 x 3 x 2 equals.

Anyways, 30 teams, the middle 10 through May, then anyone that fits the bill for the rest of the year.

So with some whittling, here are the 10 teams we will play through the end of May:

ATL

CIN

COL

LAA

MIN

NYM

OAK

SD

TB

TOR

This comes out to about 162 series and about 48 where the series features two target teams.  Will post back after the end of May with results and a new set of teams to take us upup  the ASG.

Good luck out there...

So you won't be posting daily? 

Are u betting to win 1,2, or 4 units?

Or are you flat betting 1,2, or 4 units and winning more or less depending on the ML?

How are you going to do it? I can easily see half of those teams getting swept at home at least once. 

Also I can ser the Braves as -300 when they face the marlins or even the twins facing the tigres or Royals.

Remember that with such a risky system, only one sweep can put you 6-8 units behind, just a matter of one -250 or more favorite losing.

BTW I don't know how you consider Toronto 

Yup.   The pooch is screwed for the first third.  Given back all those gains from 2018.  11 sweeps and were still in April.

I'll be back after the ASG.  At least that third has prove itself for the last two seasons.