I'll be playing the Atlanta Braves tonight. I have 5 units on the ML at -155, 5 units at -1 (-125), and 2 units on the run line -1.5 (+102).
A quick note about my style. You might have noticed that I only bet on good teams that are usually favored. You won't see me laying -250. But, anywhere from even money to -160 is typically in my range. You'll never see a write up from me on a sub 500 team (unless they're playing an even worse team). I only fade bad teams. I bet 4-7 games per week. With such low volume, I can't make money betting dogs. I pick my spots with good teams (and good pitchers) and will occasionally sprinkle the run line to reduce the juice. Just throwing that out there in case you're wondering why I never select dogs. Everyone has their own style, this is what works for me.
Anyway - today's card was looking like a pass until I got to this game. Again, I look at 3 angles when making a selection; Data, Momentum, and Motivation. The Braves have had the Data and Momentum going all season. But, their lead in the NL East is so big that motivation is something that has been hard to gauge with them. For example, they're just 7-5 in September and were really only motivated during the Dodger series, which they took 3 of the 4 games. However, a win tonight will clinch the NL EAST title and I believe the Braves will be motivated to do just that. Below are other reasons to back them tonight. Some of it is cut and pasted from a previous write up about this team, but it's all still very relevant:
1) Atlanta literally doesn't have a weakness. Their run differential leads the league at a staggering +239. The Phillies rank 11th in run differential at +70.
2) The Braves have 3 offensive players that rank in the top 10 of the National League; Acuna #1, Olson #2, and Riley, #7. Ozzie Albies comes in at #21 and Marcel Ozuna at #22. But it's not just about these 5 guys. Atlanta has the best Catcher (Murphy) in baseball, an all star Shortstop (Arcia), and one of the most talented 22 year old outfielders (Michael Harris) surrounding the 5 alphas. The Braves entire lineup leads MLB in every offensive statistical category. They are hands down one of the best offenses of all time.
3) The Braves absolutely destroy left handed pitching. They of course lead the league with a .292 AVG, .356 OBP, .533 SLG, and a .889 OPS. Philly ranks 5th against right handed pitching, but their numbers (.260 AVG, .331 OBP, .431 SLG, and .767 OPS) are a far cry from Atlanta's.
4) In order to have a good run differential, a team obviously must possess solid pitching as well. Tonight, one team brings their Ace (Spencer Strider) while the other brings a decent 3 or 4 (Christopher Sanchez) from their rotation.
5) On the season, when you account for W's, K's, ERA, and WHIP, Spencer Strider ranks as the #3 pitcher in the National League. The Cy Young is likely Blake Snell's to lose, but Strider has been in the running all season. Although, he hasn't looked sharp lately. He got blasted by St Louis in his last start, giving up 6 earned runs in just 2.2 innings. There was only one other game this season that he couldn't get out of the 2nd inning (also giving up 6 earned runs). He followed that start with a 7 inning gem, allowing just 3 hits and 0 earned runs. His ERA also happens to be a whole point lower on the road. He is 10-2 in away games, with a 3.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and opponents are hitting just .212 against him.
6) Strider seems to pitch particularly well against good opponents. When facing teams with a winning record, he pitches to a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Ironically, against teams with a sub 500 record, he has a 6.11 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Although, he still has a 6-3 record in those games due to run support from the best offense in MLB. Philly is an above 500 team and Strider is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against them this year. I expect him to be on his game and make it 3-0 tonight.
7) Sanchez has strange splits as well. His home ERA is 2 points higher than his road. At home, he's 2-3, with a 3.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .251 against him. I anticipate those numbers to look much worse after tonight.
8) The Braves have the better bullpen. Statistically, they rank higher than Philly in just about every category.
Give me the best team in baseball with motivation to win and their Ace on the mound. Again, 5 units on the ML at -155, 5 units at -1 (-125), and 2 units on the run line -1.5 (+102).
BOL to everyone on all your plays.
Cheers,
Kaufee