7/19/10 Game Analysis, Leans and Picks

Det +111 1U:  I just can't pass up Det plus money in this spot.  I know, I know, Det is on a 6-game losing streak (got swept by that powerhouse Cle no less) and Tex is playing well, with 6-0 Hunter on the mound.  I hate going against a streak, winning or losing, but it's either Det or no bet.

KC -102 1U:  Litsch shouldn't be a road fav to any team.  Period.  Lerew had a decent year at Omaha and KC until the last 2 starts, where he got shredded on the road against LAA and CHW.  KC does have the best BA in the Majors this year, so I look for KC to score a few runs against Litsch here and keep this game competitive. 

Ari +112 1.5U:  Mets are a mess right now.  They are simply not scoring any runs of late.  Mets average 1.9 runs/game L10 while getting shutout 3 times.  I'm not saying that Ari is any better by any means, but their bats woke up against Pelfrey yesterday and I hope they can can have similar success against the knockleballer Dickey.  Enright has solid numbers at Mobile before getting call up to the Majors this year.  With the way Mets' bats have been, maybe scoring 3 or 4 runs against them would win it.  I'll back the home dog in this situation.

Sea +110 1U:  Danks open as -145 fav and WSox has been bet down to -125 against Fister and the M's?  Sea has been awful and Fister hasn't had much success of late.  WSox are overwhelming public fav here and the line went down?  Going against the public in this spot (not that I like M's much).

Lastly, I going out on a limb here and will take LAD -1.5 +180 for 1U.  Kershaw has been solid this year, but Dodgers on a 5-game losing streak and going up against a very hot SF club with Lincecum on the mound, and Dodgers a fav (opened at -125 and now -117)?  I believe SF will be a very public dog.  I read many for/against argument in the forum on this game today.  The best bet is probably just to sit this one out.  The degenerate in me however, will gamble for the nice return.

GLuck UT!