(40-26) +54.75 units in 8 days

I've already been researching and studying games for hours this evening.

I'm not going to lose because of lack of effort.

Variance can get anyone. Anytime.  Any day.

But I will NOT lose by being lazy.

I'm always working on my gambling character flaw.  I love to play a lot of games. 

In my twisted mind.

If I have done the hard work to find a wager that I believe is +EV (Expected to win at a % higher than the juice) why not play more games?

In the long run, if every wager I place is a favorite to beat the juice, there is no way I can lose.  Again, long term.

Short term, no matter how good my picks are in +EV, variance can crush me.

And that is the real reason I must limit my plays.

People that are following me are thinking and looking at the short term.  They want winners now.  Today.

Yesterday is ancient history and forgotten immediately if you are winning and if you are losing it's the only thing you hear about.

"You lost yesterday." Over and over.

And, the sad fact is that most people are not bankrolled properly to actually DO bankroll management.

Even if they were of a mind to.

Which 80% or more are not.  They are not interested in bankroll management because that is a "long term strategy".

And most degenerate gamblers are all about TODAY.  NOW.

I can't blame them as I understand it.  I was once every bit as much a degenerate gambler as they are.

The last two days have been difficult for me.  Losing grates on me.  Like showering in a sand blaster.  Irritating.

Tomorrows card looks way too good to me.  Yet again.

Kids…..This sport will bankrupt you.

@OneWayOut

 "Kids"?

I'm old enough to be your grandfather probably.

Been wagering on sports a lot longer than you have been breathing.

I win a lot more than I lose.  As you will see this year in MLB.

But I get it.

You have been broken and cleaned out many times in your sports betting career.  Lost every dime probably.

95%+ have.  Very few win long term in any sport gambling endeavor.

It's hard for you to believe that someone can actually beat the books.

Hang around "kid".

Watch and learn.

By the way, do you understand what the word "irony" means?

I will try a sentence and see if you get it.

It is "ironic" that you would come into a thread where someone has won over 50 units in about a week and tell them they are going to go bankrupt.

Get it?

Irony.

It's a fun word.

I've come up with a couple of dogs that I really like for tomorrow.

Locking them in tonight as official plays.

Cincinnati Reds +168 for 3 units.

Colorado Rockies +148 for 3 units.

For the first time in awhile, I was tempted to make both of these 5 unit plays.

Not going to do that though.

Waiting to get back on track a bit before we stretch things out.

I would like to be up close to +100 units before stacking units on dogs.

And tomorrow is highly likely to be a big play count day. 

I know, I know. 

Can't let the tiger out of the box too much.

Tap the brakes and all that.

But I really do like both of these dogs.

the scary thing is most stock brokers are degenerate sports gamblers b/c they like the quick turnaround and having money in the market has become too boring for them. 

@AdVictoriam

 Good luck with your plays,

Cincinnati Reds +168 for 3 units.

Colorado Rockies +148 for 3 units.

I would NEVER make an MLB-"dog" a "multiple"-unit play.

An "attractive"-total, maybe.

Otherwise, i would prefer to take, as-far-as MLB is concerned, a "favorite" at -1.5 runs, which pays appx the same, as a dog-"SU", and have far-better chanses of "covering"/winning.

Keep at it bud.

You’re doing GREAT.

Did some research last night on books and which ones have and don't have that insane "rule" regarding listed/action pitchers and how they void plays.

As you may recall, I lost over 10 units last week with the book I am currently using.

The rule is that on RL and totals wagers, you automatically are forced to take listed pitchers.

If the pitchers change before the game, you are responsible for putting your wager back in as it becomes void.

Of course, on a straight ML wager, you can CHOOSE listed or action.

So why can't you choose listed or action with RL and totals bets?

Purely the book covering their ass.  A straight up angle shoot on their part.

Turns out there are books that set RL and totals wagers as action automatically, which is what we want.

"Bookmaker" is one of them.

This particular problem comes up often in games where the team is using a reliever to start the game and then the "real starter" comes in for the bulk of the innings.

The Devil Rays are doing that exact thing today.  They were the team that got me on this last time.

So be aware. 

It's less likely to happen today as they have the reliever Guerra listed as the "starter" as it should be.

Josh Fleming is the "real starter" for the Devil Rays today.

Speaking of the Devil Rays.

 Lets break down the Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay game and series today.  DEEP DIVE.  Grab your scuba!

R. Contreras vs J. Fleming.  Remember, Josh Fleming is the "real starter" for the Devil Rays today even though Guerra is listed as starter.

The series line opened at T.B. -290 and has since risen to -300.  That is a big jump for a series line.

Josh Fleming has pitched 5 games this year and his first outing vs the NATS was a train wreck.  He left the game with a 15.00 ERA/3.67 WHIP.

Every game since then has shown dramatic improvement. 

His last 2 outings lines, 9IP 5H 0R 0ER 0HR 5K with an ERA of 0.00 and WHIP of 0.67.

Might not be a better 2 game line in MLB for the last 2 outings.

He is a soft throwing lefty with lots of off speed and a 90mph fast ball on a good day.  So he is fooling batters.

If he is "ON", he is almost unhittable.  If he is "OFF", he gets absolutely crushed.  Last 2 games he is hardcore "ON".

Contreras has been pretty good this year in his 5 starts with the exception of the one vs Houston.

In his last 2 starts, he has a 0.71 ERA/0.87 WHIP.  Very good.  

The Devil Rays are 14-2 at home while the Pirates are 11-5 on the road so something has to give today.

The Pirates have only lost one series this year (Houston) while the Devil Rays have lost 2 (Houston at home, Toronto on the road).

Yet, the series line opened at Devil Rays -290 and is now at -300.

For comparison, the Seattle Mariners are a -280 vs the Oakland A's.

The A's are one of the worst 3 teams in baseball.  And the books are putting a higher series number on the Pirates at -290 on the open.

What does that say to you?

The NL Central leader with a 20-9 record has a WORSE series line than the A's.

Well, to me, it says the books believe strongly that the Devil Rays win this series and possibly sweep it.

Which is saying a lot about this Pirates team.

top consensus 

Milwaukee93 %

Oh.

Also.

What does it say to you that we have a SERIES line up for the Pirates/Devil Rays game but not a GAME Line for today yet?

Almost 10 am EST.

Atlanta at Miami.  Elder vs Alcantara.  Series line Atlanta -170, Miami +150.

Lets start with Mr. Elder.

Similar to Josh Fleming, he is a pitch to contact guy with a less than 90mph fastball.

If he doesn't fool the batters, he can get hit very hard. 

His last outing ( vs Miami) is a great example of that.  5.1IP 5H 4R 4ER 3HR 2BB 3Ks. 

He had not given up a HR all season, then gives up 3.  All solo shots and he got away with it.  The Braves won the game.

The more teams see this guy, the better they get at hitting him.

And the Braves lineup today has seen him quite a bit.  And had good success vs him.

Alcantera is showing signs of turning things around.

He has been gradually lowering his ERA/WHIP after a rough start to the year. 

Last 2 games he is 3.86/1.11 on ERA/WHIP. 

Alcantara is near elite, if not elite.

The series line says Miami wins at least one game.  This might be it.

@OneWayOut

 GTFOH. 

@AdVictoriam

 Love Mia and UNDER today . GL today 

Lots of info here! GL 

METS at Detroit.  Lucchesi vs Lorenzen.  Series line METS -260, Detroit +220.

Mr. Lucchesi had Tommy John surgery in June of 2021 so he is now some 20 months+ since his procedure.

This is the general time frame when most guys are healed up enough to where you start to get an idea if they are still MLB pitchers.

He has had 2 starts this year and he is at a 2.19 ERA/1.05 WHIP.  Very respectable.

Still a bit of a wild card in my mind as to how he is going to turn out this year.

His fastball is under 90mp and his spin rates are below average.

Joey Baez is the only one who has a decent history vs him in the lineup today and he is hitting him at a .714 over 7ABs.

Now for Mr. Lorenzen.

The first stat that jumped out at me is right handed batters are hitting .433 vs him this year. 

He has made 3 starts.  In 2 of the 3 he gave up a total of 15H and 11ER.

Stats total on his 3 starts has him at 7.07 ERA/1.64 WHIP.

Seems to be pretty decent value with the METS at -158.  The team total at O4.5 -122 is another good spot.

Both leans for now.  Not official plays.

Folks, a very helpful Covers gentlemen pointed out I had made a mistake in my calculations regarding my record yesterday.

The correct numbers from yesterday are (3-5) and -4.05 units.

The correct cumulative numbers now are (41-24) and +54.30 units.

I sincerely regret the error.  I do my best but its usually late, late at night when I calculate those and mistakes can happen.

@AdVictoriam

 You might want to recheck your record from last night......you were 3-5 with -6 units plus the juice. You are 41-28 51.75 units in 8 days plus you need to add the juice you lost. 

@collectNOW

 wow we have accountants at covers  WHO KNEW

@ ole bastard not good at math either join me Adv.

He is going to have a lot of fun today counting all the winners!

@AdVictoriam

 Don't worry about it.  Thank you for the information you are sharing.  I know its helped me out.  

@BlackwaterOP

 Not worried about it at all.

I have been open and honest at every point as best I can.

@AdVictoriam

 You aren't honest about your profits.