🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Yankees +105 @pinn  "value bet"    ....tiny edge; projected runs 4.2 vs 4.0

CWS +124 @pinn   "value bet"       ...tiny edge; projected runs 3.9 vs 4.1

NOTE:   CWS SP Martin is riding a 7 consecutive game HOT STREAK w/o a "bad" outing yet... if he picks today to have a bad outing then CWS will lose.  I don't believe he will today but I've been wrong before... 

Sunday, May 10:

  HOT STREAK WARNING!

                                    MARTIN,  CWS

            This STARTER is riding a tenuous  7-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. 

A BAD DAY happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided. 

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.

Sunday, May 10:

   HOT STREAK WARNING!

                                     ELDER,  Braves

            This STARTER is riding a tenuous  8-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" particularly after 7 straight...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. 

A BAD DAY happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided. 

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.

DBacks -109 @pinn          ... should be a solid edge; projected runs 2.9  vs  4.0

On Friday the METS had a solid, favorable SP matchup and won 3 - 1....Saturday Mets had a VERY FAVORABLE starter matchup but lost 1 - 2....Today, with Brazo expected to give way to Peterson (LEFTY!) after 1 or 2 ip, I make the starters matchup about even but leaning slightly to Rodriguez (LEFTY, AZ) because the METS on the season are consistently weakass vs decent LEFTIES, while DBACKS bats are consistently above avg bats vs LEFTIES...thus widening the gap in projected runs........ I hope! 

LEANING under ....maybe.... but I tend to struggle with unders

Glad I held off. 

Trailing 2 - 3 now after RODON has a "BAD" outing - in just 4.1 ip he allowed 8 on base, a WILD  pitch and 3 ER.  But in a one run game the Yankees bats are NOT out of it

If it is deemed the results of his surgery is NOT the issue, then we can expect RODON will round back into shape and return to elite form at some point in May

cws    good call    thx 

SUNDAY, May 10 results:

W RAYS +133 @pinn    "value bet"               ... projected runs: 3.3 vs 3.5
W TB/BOS un 9 -153    alt-total@pinn
 L   Cleveland -153 @pinn            ...solid edge + angle; projected runs: 3.7 vs 4.9
W Min/CLV over 7 -130 alt-total@pinn
 L   Yankees +105 @pinn "value bet"     ....tiny edge; projected runs 4.2 vs 4.0
W CWS +124 @pinn     "value bet"       ...tiny edge; projected runs 3.9 vs 4.1
W DBacks -109 @pinn             ... should be a solid edge; projected runs 2.9 vs 4.0

5 - 2   +3.04u      [no *BBs]

There do not appear to be any HOT STREAK starters today . . . 

You got any BB ?

@countrybob

 Hey Bob relax im sure if he has any he usaully posts my friend dont ask dumb questions...

PeaceG.L 

MONDAY, May 11:

NYY  -141 @pinn   *BB      ... decent edge + angle; projected runs: 4.9 vs 4.0

I have the AZ/TEX game projected for  2.6 runs vs 2.9 for a total of 6.5....indicating an under 8 would be a decent play EXCEPT I will not, as I hate betting unders on a low number....

Similarly for Sea/HOU which I project for 3.9 runs vs 3.0 for 6.9 total and indicating under 9 would be a play but I am skittish about unders... so I pass on both   ....will simply observe....

]Today's bets will give you some insight into a 71 yr old pulling an all-nighter,  pumped up on too many frosted donuts and waaaaaaaay too much coffee   whilst groovin' to oldies POP/Disco from the 70's.   NOTE:  Caution! I could be way off with my analysis!    Saturday, May 09:   (overnight lines at Pinnacle) Angels +1.5 -138 "value bet"    ...close; projected runs 3.5 vs 3.7Color +1.5 -130 "value bet"   ...thin edge; projected runs 4.7 vs 4.5TB Rays +133  "value bet"        ...close; projected runs 2.8 vs 3.0Color/Phil over 8.0 -121       ...projected total: 9.5 runs  [+/- 2.0 range = 7.5 - 11.5]Wash/MIA und 9.0 -122        ...projected total: 7.3 runs  [+/- 2.0 range = 5.3 - 9.3]Det/KC und 10 -147 alt-total   ...projected total: 8.0 runs  [+/- 2.0 range = 6.0 - 10.0]A's +113  *BB                   ...solid edge + angle; projected runs 4.8 vs 3.8Cubs -135 *BB                  ...solid edge; projected runs 4.5 vs 3.2 .....Marlins -153                           ...fair edge; projected runs 4.0 vs 2.8Brewskies +124 "value bet"       ...thin edge; projected runs 3.3 vs 3.6CWS   +121   "value bet"         ...close; projected runs 5.0 vs 5.0Cards  +124   "value bet"        ...close; projected runs 3.7 vs 3.9Pirates -115                         ...fair edge; projected runs 3.5  vs 2.8NY Mets -110 *BB                ...solid edge; projected runs 4.6  vs  3.1Mets/AZ und 9.0 -116          ...projected total: 7.5 runs [+/- 2.0 range = 5.5 - 9.5]Sea/CWS ov 8.0 -157 alt-total   ...projected: 9.7 runs [+/- 2.0 range = 7.7 - 11.7][/Quote]   LOOKS +167  AT 1X (1-2) BB  that about right... what a large laundry list   

Loser, by one late swing of the bat....

Now I suppose the 2 unders my capping indicated will win after I passed on them...

Dodgers -178 @pinn  *BB

NOTE: My *BBs did really well in April when I don't normally handicap MLB....but are LOSING in May.....this trend may continue tonight...tailing NOT recommended.

LIVE BET bottom-3rd, trail 0 - 1; LAD -140 @B365  *BB

OF COURSE! .I pass, then a combined total of 5 runs between those 4 teams.

0 - 3 Monday,  all BBs,  really sucks....

Tuesday, May 12:  (all @pinn unless otherwise stated)

Cleve -133                              ...+0.7 net edge just makes the cut at these odds
NYY -136   *BB                      ...solid +1.2 run edge......I think 

Wash +126   "value bet"  ...coin-flipper!; I will always  take the decent PLUS money!
Philly -133   *BB                    ...solid +1.2 run edge.........I think 

NYY -131  *BB  first 5 inn

@fubah2

 My YTD with "value bets"  =  12 - 9   +5.48u

The idea is to identify coin-flippers (or very close) and grab significant PLUS $$

Assuming I assess the coin-flippers fairly well over the season, I would anticipate my W/L with these to be roughly even but a significant gain in profits! 

Then again,  "everyone has a plan until he gets punched in the face"