Hi guys. Although I haven't gambled in more than a year, I
thought I'd give you guys my thoughts on UFC 74. I've been watching the
sport for a couple years now and have really gotten to know and love it. I've been making picks over at MMAPlayground and my record there is 44-26. Not too shabby for such an unpredictable sport (especially in '07). Keep in mind that I'm not actually betting on anything, but I will give my plays regardless as a former gambler. I've bolded my picks/plays in case you just want to skim through this thread and get to the point. Anyway, onto my thoughts and predictions!
________
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen (Recommended Bet: NO PLAY)
Ryan who? I made a mistake last time and picked a guy named Floyd Sword
who got raped by Leites. Sherdog tells me Ryan's got a nice record with
a bunch of wins by submission but has fought nobody in the process.
One last thing, yesterday Leites had trouble making the weight limit, so this might be a factor.
What I'm predicting: Leites via Submission. What will probably happen: Leites wins by Decision, due to their grappling canceling one another out
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk (Recommended Bet: Heavy on Mir)
If Frank shows up in shape he'll take Antoni down and submit him within
the first 90 seconds. If Fat Frank shows up, we're probably in for a
really boring decision. Either way I think Frank takes the fight as he
has too many tools for Hardonk to deal with.
What I'm predicting: Frank, via whatever. Let's say submission, late 1st round. Yeh. What will probably happen: Frank wins, via whatever. Unless he gases.
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Alberto "The Pain Train" (TM) Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta (Recommended Bet: Terrible odds against an unknown entity, therefore NO PLAY)
I don't know a damn thing about Crane except what Sherdog tells me.
Apparently he's some kind of undefeated submission machine from the
future with a notable decision victory against Javier Vazquez. Good
stuff I suppose, but the UFC is desperately trying to break into
international markets, and Huerta is being billed as the Michael
Bisping of Mexico. I made up a nice nickname for Alberto, but that
simply won't be enough against Huerta.
What I'm predicting: Roger Huerta wins, via unspectacular TKO What will probably happen: Roger Huerta wins, via unspectacular TKO
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida (Recommended Bet: Medium play on Guida)
I'm totally clueless on this fight. Marcus has some sickjitsu, but
Guida is just an entertainment machine. This will probably be Fight of
the Night, but after Aurelio's last showing I don't know if he'll be up
to the task against the "DYNAMIC" Guida. Plus he's had a long layoff
due to the Pride buyout, and Clay is hungry for his first victory in
the UFC.
What I'm predicting: Guida wins, via Unanimous decision What will probably happen: Guida wins, via Unanimous decision
Hi guys. Although I haven't gambled in more than a year, I
thought I'd give you guys my thoughts on UFC 74. I've been watching the
sport for a couple years now and have really gotten to know and love it. I've been making picks over at MMAPlayground and my record there is 44-26. Not too shabby for such an unpredictable sport (especially in '07). Keep in mind that I'm not actually betting on anything, but I will give my plays regardless as a former gambler. I've bolded my picks/plays in case you just want to skim through this thread and get to the point. Anyway, onto my thoughts and predictions!
________
Thales Leites vs. Ryan Jensen (Recommended Bet: NO PLAY)
Ryan who? I made a mistake last time and picked a guy named Floyd Sword
who got raped by Leites. Sherdog tells me Ryan's got a nice record with
a bunch of wins by submission but has fought nobody in the process.
One last thing, yesterday Leites had trouble making the weight limit, so this might be a factor.
What I'm predicting: Leites via Submission. What will probably happen: Leites wins by Decision, due to their grappling canceling one another out
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk (Recommended Bet: Heavy on Mir)
If Frank shows up in shape he'll take Antoni down and submit him within
the first 90 seconds. If Fat Frank shows up, we're probably in for a
really boring decision. Either way I think Frank takes the fight as he
has too many tools for Hardonk to deal with.
What I'm predicting: Frank, via whatever. Let's say submission, late 1st round. Yeh. What will probably happen: Frank wins, via whatever. Unless he gases.
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Alberto "The Pain Train" (TM) Crane vs. Roger "El Matador" Huerta (Recommended Bet: Terrible odds against an unknown entity, therefore NO PLAY)
I don't know a damn thing about Crane except what Sherdog tells me.
Apparently he's some kind of undefeated submission machine from the
future with a notable decision victory against Javier Vazquez. Good
stuff I suppose, but the UFC is desperately trying to break into
international markets, and Huerta is being billed as the Michael
Bisping of Mexico. I made up a nice nickname for Alberto, but that
simply won't be enough against Huerta.
What I'm predicting: Roger Huerta wins, via unspectacular TKO What will probably happen: Roger Huerta wins, via unspectacular TKO
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida (Recommended Bet: Medium play on Guida)
I'm totally clueless on this fight. Marcus has some sickjitsu, but
Guida is just an entertainment machine. This will probably be Fight of
the Night, but after Aurelio's last showing I don't know if he'll be up
to the task against the "DYNAMIC" Guida. Plus he's had a long layoff
due to the Pride buyout, and Clay is hungry for his first victory in
the UFC.
What I'm predicting: Guida wins, via Unanimous decision What will probably happen: Guida wins, via Unanimous decision
Renato Sobral vs. David Heath (Recommended Bet: Medium play on Sobral)
I've never seen Heath fight before, so I'm basing this pick more on what I've seen of Sobral than anything else.
Renatu "I charge into vicious kicks and punches" Sobral is coming off a
tough loss to Jason Lambert after dominating him in the first round.
David kind of looks like a more built version of Lambert. Based on this
fantastic logic, Sobral will take his frustrations out on the White
race and have his hand raised in victory.
What I'm predicting: Babalu wins via blind hatred for the White Man (Submission in round 2) What will probably happen: Babalu wins via blind hatred for the White Man (not sure how)
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote (Recommended Bet: Small play on Kendall, although the line at -270 is giving Kendall too much credit)
With Cote's track record in the UFC this fight has "decision" written
all over it. However I can see Kendall pulling off some kind of sub or
just using his superior length to prevent Cote from doing any damage
standing up. On the feet or on the mat, this is not a fight where I see
Cote having any kind of advantage, (except maybe a better chin - el oh
el).
What I'm predicting: Kendall via Submission (triangle choke - late round 2). What will probably happen: Cote picks his shots from a distance but
Kendall uses his reach to outpoint him. Kendall wins via Unanimous
Decision and that's the last of Cote we see for a while
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino (Recommended Bet: Small play on Joe Stevenson)
One guy calls himself "Batman", the other has one of the most bland
nicknames in MMA. Nonetheless, this is a pretty intriguing matchup that
that I think will favor Joe Stevenson. I think he's a better grappler,
and he definitely has a big edge in experience. This fight will most
likely hit the ground, where Kurt is a submission machine. However, I
don't see him catching Joe in a sub, as Joe's experience/skill should
keep him out of any danger. Stevenson hasn't been submitted in 7 years.
Unfortunately for Kurt, Batman's the only person who'll be able to help
him this Saturday.
What I'm predicting: Joe Stevenson via Yves Edwardesque TKO (Round 2) What will probably happen: We have a back and forth war but Stevenson simply outclasses Kurt. Joe wins via Unanimous Decision.
Renato Sobral vs. David Heath (Recommended Bet: Medium play on Sobral)
I've never seen Heath fight before, so I'm basing this pick more on what I've seen of Sobral than anything else.
Renatu "I charge into vicious kicks and punches" Sobral is coming off a
tough loss to Jason Lambert after dominating him in the first round.
David kind of looks like a more built version of Lambert. Based on this
fantastic logic, Sobral will take his frustrations out on the White
race and have his hand raised in victory.
What I'm predicting: Babalu wins via blind hatred for the White Man (Submission in round 2) What will probably happen: Babalu wins via blind hatred for the White Man (not sure how)
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Kendall Grove vs. Patrick Cote (Recommended Bet: Small play on Kendall, although the line at -270 is giving Kendall too much credit)
With Cote's track record in the UFC this fight has "decision" written
all over it. However I can see Kendall pulling off some kind of sub or
just using his superior length to prevent Cote from doing any damage
standing up. On the feet or on the mat, this is not a fight where I see
Cote having any kind of advantage, (except maybe a better chin - el oh
el).
What I'm predicting: Kendall via Submission (triangle choke - late round 2). What will probably happen: Cote picks his shots from a distance but
Kendall uses his reach to outpoint him. Kendall wins via Unanimous
Decision and that's the last of Cote we see for a while
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino (Recommended Bet: Small play on Joe Stevenson)
One guy calls himself "Batman", the other has one of the most bland
nicknames in MMA. Nonetheless, this is a pretty intriguing matchup that
that I think will favor Joe Stevenson. I think he's a better grappler,
and he definitely has a big edge in experience. This fight will most
likely hit the ground, where Kurt is a submission machine. However, I
don't see him catching Joe in a sub, as Joe's experience/skill should
keep him out of any danger. Stevenson hasn't been submitted in 7 years.
Unfortunately for Kurt, Batman's the only person who'll be able to help
him this Saturday.
What I'm predicting: Joe Stevenson via Yves Edwardesque TKO (Round 2) What will probably happen: We have a back and forth war but Stevenson simply outclasses Kurt. Joe wins via Unanimous Decision.
Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St. Pierre: (Recommended Bet: Small play on Koscheck)
My most anticipated match since I'm a GSP fan and he's coming off a
shocking upset to Matt Serra. I think we'll have a back and forth first
round, with GSP winning the standup while Koscheck manages a takedown
or 2 doing minimal damage via "Ground and pound". GSP will make
whatever adjustments necessary in round 2, and will end up picking Josh
apart and finishing him off with some brutal strikes.
What I'm predicting: Georges St Pierre via brutal strikes (Round 2) What will probably happen: Georges comes out with the focus that
propelled him to superstardom and sets Koscheck's career back a year or
2. GSP via RUSHHHH
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Randy Couture (Recommended Bet: Medium play on Gabriel Gonzaga)
Would I be surprised if Randy pulled off the "upset"? No. Do I think it
will happen...? No. I think Gonzaga will be too much to deal with, as
he can probably handle Randy wherever the fight goes. The only things
working in Randy's favor are his superior wrestling / and his Captain
America spirit.
What I'm predicting: Gabriel Gonzaga wins via John McCarthy stoppage (Round 3) What will probably happen: The MMA world is shocked as their hero is
sent into retirement... For good this time. Gonzaga wins via ground and
pound assault.
Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St. Pierre: (Recommended Bet: Small play on Koscheck)
My most anticipated match since I'm a GSP fan and he's coming off a
shocking upset to Matt Serra. I think we'll have a back and forth first
round, with GSP winning the standup while Koscheck manages a takedown
or 2 doing minimal damage via "Ground and pound". GSP will make
whatever adjustments necessary in round 2, and will end up picking Josh
apart and finishing him off with some brutal strikes.
What I'm predicting: Georges St Pierre via brutal strikes (Round 2) What will probably happen: Georges comes out with the focus that
propelled him to superstardom and sets Koscheck's career back a year or
2. GSP via RUSHHHH
-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Randy Couture (Recommended Bet: Medium play on Gabriel Gonzaga)
Would I be surprised if Randy pulled off the "upset"? No. Do I think it
will happen...? No. I think Gonzaga will be too much to deal with, as
he can probably handle Randy wherever the fight goes. The only things
working in Randy's favor are his superior wrestling / and his Captain
America spirit.
What I'm predicting: Gabriel Gonzaga wins via John McCarthy stoppage (Round 3) What will probably happen: The MMA world is shocked as their hero is
sent into retirement... For good this time. Gonzaga wins via ground and
pound assault.
I have taken Gonzaga ... i just think he is too much for the natural ...St.Peirre has more experience and is hungier i think..
my two big picks for the night are on .. Frank MIr he looked good at the weighins and if he stays away from the kicks and standup and get to the ground he pulls it out ... also i think Babalu will be back in great forum tonite after two loses
I have taken Gonzaga ... i just think he is too much for the natural ...St.Peirre has more experience and is hungier i think..
my two big picks for the night are on .. Frank MIr he looked good at the weighins and if he stays away from the kicks and standup and get to the ground he pulls it out ... also i think Babalu will be back in great forum tonite after two loses
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.