WTI Crude (CL) Futures Market, and What is Happening. BS Debunked

Big rally today........my moving average on the daily chart is at 48.89.......we haven't been anywhere near it for months...we closed at 47.85 today, up 3.26$ on huge volumes late;  IF the bullish attitude carries over into next week and the beginning of Febuary, we will trade to the topside of the SMA, and have some concrete inputs for a long term bottom call. 

I choose my words carefully, because it is very easy to look like a big time assss in this arena when trying to pick bottoms or tops...that penetration of 44 even did not last long, and the huge gains came on fast.  We may very well have seen the bottom of this crude market for the year and intermediate term.

I took my options plays this morning ..... these prices will reflect the prices at today's close instead of the open; I got down in the middle, but these prices err a bit to the high...not trying to grab credit post facto on the late day bump.

Long term options plays.....I am swinging for the fence here; it is easily the largest trade I have ever made...just figured I would post on this thread...sort of a "working journal".

Trading can be a bit of a lonely venture...so I guess letting 'er rip on Covers serves some purpose, some where......

Trades:

1)  2 Sept 2015 Calls/Strike @ 50.00   7.75 p/ barrel

2) 1 June 2016 Call/Strike 55.00      10.15 p/ barrel 

3) 2 June 2016 Call, Strike 75.50      1.86 p/barrel

Absolutely, Wall.   This is not the  bottom IMO...   There may have been some short covering, but this is still not the panic sell in oil that will exhaust the buyers... that is the one component that is missing.  .      I don't think the selling is over..   I may consider RIG once all the buyers have been exhausted from this market. 

Like I said earlier, the off-shore producers and oil services industries are going to feel the pain the most.   

RIG, HAL, SLB.  These are good names that will trade at a discount in the weeks, months ahead.   

CL is banging right now.....print high of 54.24 today...absolute breakaway trend on the 30minute chart.

Racked the September Calls @ today's high.... 11.81p/b

Almost doubled up in 4 days.....helll of a trade; too much value too fast to let it get away. Going to let the 2016 calls ride for now.

IF we test the 40's again, I may be looking to go back in to the Sept calls @ strike 50.50...but most likely that trade is shot.

FWIW, I have an upper Bollinger band at 54.22 on the March CL daily chart.....possible to see some chop sideways. I would expect some natural chop at 55.00. Will be waiting for a sell signal to develop in this range, but my gut is screaming for 75 in short order.

Congrats Caper03 on your trade......personally, I am not sold on Elliot Wave... I used to talk to an analyst at Elliot Wave International; it was his opinion that the black boxes and dark money pools made the Wave obsolete. Be that as it may, EW has a large number of followers; may lead to a self fulfilling prophecy.

Thanks Caper03...... you too.

I agree about the complexities of Elliot wave.....when those guys start getting into the subcounts, I have trouble keeping up.  Studied one of the old books by Frost and Prechter, but all in all I am rube when it comes to doing the wave counts on the fly.

One thing is for sure...keeping it simple is the best approach. This Crude market is moving so fast, with so much volume, it is important to know what you are going to do before the situation presents itself.

Substantial sell-off after the pit close today.....right now up on the electronic open.....FWIW I have a sell signal down there at 4968..will be scalping the extremes of yesterdays range, but with such a huge range we may be looking at an inside day even with the EIA inventory # coming out.