I focus all my bets on ml parlays and the l3 years I've done very well with this strategy. Here are some stats and numbers in regards to ml plays. This post is dedicated to BookieAss, who feels the need to play God and let people know how they should play, think, what's right, what's wrong etc etc, typical bs from this guy, all negative without bringing anything to the table...My invite is still valid BookieAss, i'll get you a vip wristband and you can sit with the big boys at LVH any Saturday you want or in the private areas at any Cantor sportsbook...
Anyways, on to the numbers. Last 5 years using DocSports.com opening lines, teams with opening line of -14 to -20 have gone 528-69 su, that's 88% win clip. More importantly in week 1 those same teams have gone 32-1 su l5 years, 96% win clip! only loss coming in 2009. This year there are 8 teams in that -14 to -20 opening line window.
Now specifically to what this post is about.
Auburn is 57-17 su at home l10 years and wsu is 15-41 away su l10. Auburn is 21-1 su l3 years when favored and wsu is 4-25 su when dog l3. this line opened at -13.5 so it's not in the "window" but looking at these stats I would give wsu a 20% shot at the upset.
Arkansas is 50-22 su at home l10 years and ull is 22-41 away su l10. Arkansas is 21-3 su l3 years when favored and ull is 9-13 su when dog l3. tied for most upset wins l3 years. so there is a shot at an upset in this game but Arky did open at -14, teams that opened at -14 are 57-6 su at home l5 years. I would rate this game as a 25% chance of an upset.
Bama is 11-5 su in neutral games l10 and va tech is 7-11 su l10. Bama is 35-5 su when favored l3 years and va tech is 0-6 su as dog l3 years. does anyone really think this game is the game that va tech gets that first win as a dog? also, bama opened at -18, which is in the window, teams that have opened at -18 are 5-0 su away l5 years. I would rate this game as 10% chance of an upset.
NC State is 43-25 l10 su at home and la tech is 25-40 su away l10 years. NC State is 15-5 su when favored l3 years and la tech is 5-13 su when dog l3 years. Numbers alone says la tech has legit shot at the upset, i'll say 40% shot.
Kentucky is 36-33 su at home l10 years and wku is 26-36 su away l10 years. Kentucky is 10-2 su when favored l3 years and wku is 8-14 su as dog l3 years. there is a good possibility at upset here as well, i'll say wku has 40% chance at upset.
Washington is 30-34 su at home l10 years and boise is 50-8 su away l10 years. Washington is 13-3 su when favored l3 years and boise is 0-1 as dog l3 years. i'd say boise has 50% shot at upset.
A couple games that the numbers suggest a ml upset are:
Fresno St is 41-17 su at home l10 years and Rutgers is 25-26 su away l10 years. Fresno is 17-6 su when favored l3 years and Rutgers is 9-12 su as dog l3 years. tied for most upset wins l3 years. rutgers has very good chance at the upset.
Florida is 56-11 su at home l10 years and Toledo is 26-33 su away l10 years. Florida is 21-6 su favored l3 years and Toledo is 7-9 su as dog l3 years. Toledo could pull off the upset.
Texas a&m is 44-23 su at home l10 years and rice is 15-46 su away l10 years. A&M is 24-7 su favored l3 years and rice is 9-21 su a dog l3 years. tied for most upset wins l3 years. rice could pull it off if manziel sits but doubt there will be a line.
stats are from philsteele.com