Week Two Ponderings

@KillyKill

 Backatcha!

The thing that's dangerous about betting Week Two is overreacting to what happened in Week One. For instance, what would the UConn-Syracuse line have been a week ago? Probably closer to -10. It's the old adage, "No team is as good as they looked in their last game, and no team is as bad as they looked in their last game". The Huskies cruised past FCS C. Conn. St. while the Orange were handled by SEC power Tennessee. I'm not betting this game, and I see a lot of 'cappers on UConn, but I don't see any value in the line. 

Another game that qualifies is the Fresno St.-Oregon St. game. The Bulldogs look like the play here based on their beatdown of Ga. Southern, while the Beavs were blown out at home by Cal. I don't think OSU is very good, but just how good is Fresno? Two weeks ago they were dominated by Kansas. So again, I'm not seeing any value in this line.

I'm also hesitant to play on USF over Florida, even though the Gators are in a look ahead spot. While the Bulls 34-7 win over Boise was indeed impressive, when looking at the stat sheet the Broncos dominated time of possession and ran over 30 more plays! The difference was USF played clean football and Boise didn't, committing three turnovers and and failing on three fourth down conversions. And the biggest play of that game was the fake punt, where Alex Golesh snuck his backup QB in the game as the "punter" and he threw a deep TD pass. The Gators aren't apt to make these same kind of mistakes in the Swamp, and they're acclimated to the heat and humidity where Boise St. was not. From what I understand from talking to people here in Boise that were at the game the conditions were stifling. Notre Dame struggled with the conditions as well in Miami on Sunday. 

The UCLA-UNLV game is another qualifier. The Bruins and Nico Iamaleava looked horrible against a stout Utah defense last week, but now they're going up against a unit that gave up 555 yards to IDAHO STATE two weeks ago! The Rebels won that game and beat Sam Houston last week, but taking them as a small home dog vs. a much better opponent seems like risky business.

@Boisestateand8

 I agree with what youve said here. I noticed a lot of people on USF and UCONN this week. Im in the central FL region and going against Boise and UF are 2 totally different things. Also I like Syracuse a lot because although they failed to cover the spread they battled fairly well in my opinion vs an SEC team. I dont think Uconn can hang. Im not interested in UCLA but I can see them handling UNLV as youve said

@Yanasaur

 Another game is the Georgia Southern-USC game. It just feels like the Trojans should cruise here, based on what happened last week, but there is zero line value here and I wouldn't be surprised to see it get bet up to 30+.

A late addition:

West Virginia -3' at OHIO - VERY impressed with the Bobcats near upset at Rutgers last week and they've won their last three home openers, while the Mountaineers have lost their last six road openers. That might not mean much considering both teams have new coaching staffs this season, but THIS might. WVU has Pitt on deck in the latest edition of the Backyard Brawl and better not be looking ahead!

And on another note I see Ole Miss is down to -8' over Kentucky now. Seems like not enough points, but the previous three matchups with the current coaches have been decided by three points or less. Just not sure the Wildcats can score enough though.