Week Two Ponderings

Saturday early games

NC STATE -3 vs. Virginia - With last week's win/no cover vs. ECU, the Wolfpack is now a money burning 4-13 ATS as chalk the last three years. They nearly blew a 24-7 lead over the Pirates, but they made a game saving stop on 4th and one at their own 9 yard line to preserve the 24-17 win. The Cavaliers dominated Coastal Carolina in all three phases of a 48-7 blowout win. New QB Chandler Morris went 19 of 27 for 264 yards and two scores, and rushed for 50 yards on five carries, but went out with a left shoulder injury in the third quarter. If Morris is cleared to play the Cavs may be worth a look here. 

PITTSBURGH -21' vs. Central Michigan - Chippewas were the only MAC team with a win over a FBS opponent, as they survived at San Jose, 16-14. Don't know if I wanna lay more than three tuddies with the Panthers with the Backyard Brawl on deck.

IOWA ST. -3 vs Iowa - So much for a letdown. Cyclones crushed a good South Dakota team, 55-7, a week after their 24-21 Farmageddon win over K St. This is only the second time the 'Clones have been favored in this series in at least the last dozen years, and they've lost the last six meetings at home in Ames. Hawkeyes are looking to avenge a 20-19 loss at home a year ago. The under has gone 17-3 since '04 if you're a totals player.

SMU -3 vs Baylor - The Bears were shockingly steamrolled by Auburn, 38-24, being outrushed 307 yards (5.9 YPR) to 64 (2.7). They have an extra day to prepare for the Mustangs, who cruised to a 42-13 win over FCS East Texas A&M in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate. They only outgained the Lions by 49 total yards, being the beneficiaries of two pick sixes. It was a costly win though as MLB Alexander Kilgore and last year's leading receiver Jordan Hudson both left with injuries. Their availability for this game has yet to be determined.

Stanford qb looked poor against Hawaii.  

Good stuff. I was eyeing the under in iowa/isu although it seems incredibly obvious and the iowa state offense is on another level right now. Baylor is another side that immediately caught my eye.

@Yanasaur

 Baylor got beat by a playoff team in Auburn, not a bad loss. People will figure AU out in a few more games. They are loaded. The transfer portal is a miracle worker if you use it right.

Baylor beats SMU outright. Even the line tells you that.

Saturday afternoon games 

Ole Miss -10 at KENTUCKY - Rebels lost at home last year to the Wildcats, 20-17, as a 15 point favorite. Revenge? Maybe, but Lane Kiffin is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in SEC openers. Both teams won in Week One. Ole Miss had 695 yards of total offense in a 63-7 demolition of Georgia St. but they did allow the Panthers to rush for 195 yards (5.5 YPR), which should be concerning facing a Kentucky team that rushed for 220 yards (5.1) in a 24-16 win over Toledo.

NAVY -21' vs. Uab - Middies won the last two meetings by scores of 31-6 and 41-18. Blake Horvath only played the first half of last week's 52-7 pasting of VMI. Navy should be undefeated going into November. 

MISSOURI -6 vs. Kansas - Renewal of the border war! The Jayhawks 31-7 win over Fresno looks a lot more impressive, after watching the Bulldogs open up a can of whup ass on Georgia Southern. Missouri's Beau Pribula won the starting QB gig by default when Sam Horn injured his knee on the first play of the Tigers' 61-6 rout of Central Arkansas.

UTSA -4' vs. Texas St. - Roadrunners have won five of six meetings, but that lone loss was a 49-10 beatdown in San Marcos last year. This one will be played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, where HC Jeff Taylor is 29-3!

OREGON ST. -3 vs. Fresno St. - In that 42-14 rout of Georgia Southern the Bulldogs outscored the Eagles 29-0 in the second half, outgained them 527 total yards to 242 and rushed for a whopping 351 yards at eight yards a clip! The Beavs trailed Cal, 14-0, early on and never threatened in a 34-15 loss. They could have their hands full here as well.

FLORIDA -17' vs. Usf - The Bulls' 34-7 rout of Boise St. was an eye opener. They played clean football, winning the turnover battle and stopped the Broncos on fourth down three times. Byrum Brown went 16 of 24 for 210 yards and rushed for 43 yards and a pair of TDs. In the last four years they've played Bama twice and these Gators twice, going 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS. Florida has a brutal stretch coming up; at LSU, at Miami, home against Texas and at A&M, and can't get caught looking ahead here.

I dont know how Oregon state is favored. Something is fishy about this one

@Boisestateand8

 That Baylor line stinks. No way would I take #16 SMU at home vs unranked Baylor. 

The ILL -3 line at Duke also stinks. 

@jp1lsu

 I went ahead and bet Baylor w the 3.5 number, only bet so far. I agree w you Duke looks right too

All the service academies are under .500 ATS when laying -17 or more points. Now it’s close to .500 but still these high lines push their game style and formulas.  

The last 2 matchups you mentioned: those lines were :

Navy -5.5 @ UAB

Navy +3.5 home dog to UAB. 

I am not making a case for either team.  

My point is: The books have adjusted this line because of the previous 2 destructions.  With the line adjusted so much, Navy is being held to that standard.  

@Mskeets

@CusDAmato1

@Yanasaur

@Martelxo92

@juveunits

@jp1lsu

@spottie2935

  Good point Spottie.

Thanks for chiming in gang. All thoughts and opinions are welcome.

your posts are legit af. salute to you sir, appreciate all the work you do lol. its so hard to keep up with all teams in college 

@usikbasterd

 Yeah, too many games to focus on. These are just the ones that stood out so far. Haven't dug into the night games yet.

already on USF +17.5

@RUM151

 Always like the in state dog angle. Gators might be a little sleepy in this one looking ahead to LSU. 

Plus, USF will have had two extra days to prepare.

Some great/interesting points pointed out Boise....must read early in the week for sure 

P.s....I see your post on Pitt...I am on the UNDER there so far but mulling Pitt to win and shutout CMU who have to fly across 3 times zones after flying out 3 times zone a couple/few days before their Week 1 game

Saturday night games 

TOLEDO -7 vs. Wku - Rockets were competitive against a much better team (Kentucky) than they'll be facing here.  Hilltoppers won last year's meeting, 26-21, as a 1' point home dog, and are 2-0 to start the '25 season, but who have they beat? 

Houston -12' at RICE - Cougars have a huge edge in returning production and have owned this cross town series, but the home team has covered eight of the last ten meetings. New Owls coach Scott Abell has installed an option based offense, which is difficult to prepare for if you're not used to seeing it. Last week Rice traveled to Lafayette LA. and upset the Ragin Cajuns, 14-12, as a ten point dog. They dominated time of possession, 36:20 to 23:40, and ran the ball 54 times for 202 yards. The two teams combined to run just 123 plays, well below the national average of somewhere around 175. A clock chewing double digit dog is appealing.

VIRGINIA TECH -1' vs. Vanderbilt - Revenge game for the Hokies, who lost at Vandy in last year's season opener, 34-27, as a two TD favorite. Second straight game vs. an SEC team for Va. Tech, off a 24-11 loss at South Carolina in a game that was much closer than the score would indicate. The Hokies had 34:09 of possession time, ran 16 more plays, had eight more total yards than the Gamecocks, and only trailed 10-8 going into the fourth quarter. But they gave up an 80 yard punt return for a TD and a 64 yard TD pass in the final stanza and left Hokies bettors tearing up their tickets.

AUBURN -43' vs. Ball St.

LSU -37' vs. Louisiana Tech 

No two teams impressed me more in Week One than Auburn and LSU. Pretty sure I won't be fading either one anytime soon.

USC -27' vs. Georgia Southern - Not crazy about laying four tuddies, but the Eagles are making their second straight trip to the West Coast, and based on what I saw last week it's Trojans or nobody.

ALABAMA -37' vs UL-Monroe - Not sure the Tide has recovered from their demoralizing loss in Tallahassee last week. Kalen Deboer's seat is so hot right now you could fry an egg on it. Gun to my head I'd hold my nose and take the points here.

BYU -18' vs. Stanford - As Mskeets observed a few posts up, Cardinal QB Ben Gulbranson couldn't hit the ocean if he was standing on the beach in Honolulu. Stanford is horrible. If the Cougars are motivated they should roll here. 

Wednesday update 

Illinois -3 at DUKE - Big test for the Illini, who haven't won a non conference game vs. a major conference team since 2007. Blue Devils won't be an easy out either, going 13-3 SU at home over the last three years vs. FBS teams (12-4 ATS), with the three losses by a combined 11 points.

NC STATE -2' vs. Virginia - Sounds like Cavs QB Chandler Morris will be ready to go after injuring his left shoulder last week in the rout over Coastal Carolina. 

IOWA ST. -3 vs. Iowa - Cyclones are better at the skill positions but the Hawkeyes are better in the trenches. Iowa lost RB Kaleb Johnson to the NFL but the cupboard isn't empty, and the 'Clones allowed 188 rushing yards a game last season (5.3 YPR).  They have yet to be tested this season and caught a break against K St. when the Wildcats lost their best RB on a punt return in the first quarter of that game. 

MISSOURI -6' vs. Kansas - Gut feeling sez the Jayhawks are gonna be money this season. Jalon Daniels is off to a great start and the Tigers could have their hands full here.

OREGON ST. -3 vs. Fresno St. - This line hasn't budged. It's a small sample size, but it feels like new HC Matt Entz has the Bulldogs train on the right track. The Beavs appear to have derailed.

Houston -14 at RICE - I mentioned that the Cougars have a big returning production edge, but they also have two new coordinators and are learning new systems. The line has jumped to two full touchdowns, and that's a lot of points to give up in this type of game with the Owls running the option and running the clock down. I may be in left field here but the big dog looks like the play here.

VIRGINIA TECH -1' vs. Vanderbilt - Big revenge game for the Hokies, but Vandy was 5-0 ATS as a road dog last season and has just about everybody back. I wouldn't be shocked to see this line jump the fence, and if it does it's worth noting that in four years under Clark Lea the 'Dores are 1-5 ATS as chalk (0-4 the last two years).

USC -28' vs. Georgia Southern - I hate taking big favorites, and got burned taking Alabama last week, but it just feels like the Trojans COULD be up big early on over the travel weary Eagles.

Thanks buddy for your time and work BOL this year.

@Boisestateand8

 Like that Duke and Kansas side....bol...

@RUM151

@Last2thirst

@Biscuiteater1

@lmb4321

Great write ups man, appreciate you taking the time. 

I wanted to bet Kentucky but I missed the 10.5 number and I was eyeing Rice myself.

I was a little puzzled by the VT line this week. I thought they would be a little bigger favorite after the way they played against SC. Is this respect for Vanderbilt w Pavia or are the books just not impressed by VTs play as a dog? The offense cost them the game w dumb mistakes, but that defense was very impressive in containing sellers. 

@Boisestateand8

 Good Luck This Weekend!

@Yanasaur

 Huge revenge game for Ole Miss, but all they care about is winning the game. They could care less about covering the spread.

Vandy's win over the Hokies in last year's opener was a stunner, but they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year. Watching the line movement on this one. It opened at Hokies -3, now down to -1'. Tough game to call.