Week 6 Predictions

@CFBLMONSTER

 Thank you for all you do!

One of the best here

@CFBLMONSTER

 Thanks for sharing 

any opinion on Rutgers +14

trapperdan33 - good to hear and thanks for the comment.  You r welcome for the info - -Hopefully it continues  going well 

Football_007 - thank u for the comment I appreciate it 

sleon86 - that one is tough me as Rutgers was my top win total play going into the year as I felt they were undervalued.  Wisc I was also high on and bet them to win west  and big ten.  Wisc hasn’t really come together yet - looked better at Purdue so they might now get it going.  They r also off a bye which is big when a team is implementing a new scheme.  Rutgers def is legit but their off isn’t great.  I think the spread is about right as I could see Rutgers hanging around but could also see Wisc by 20 plus - Wisc scares me a little cause I felt they would be one of big tens best toward end of season.  If u forced me to play it I side with Wisc but I won’t play it as to me it’s a tough game.  

3* Illinois -3 or -4 (at 3.5 and we wait it out – if it makes a jump to 4.5 we take it to a 2*).

I like the spot here for Illinois.  They are having a tough season and I think this is a massive game for this team and it will determine the rest of their year.  Rhule will get Neb going but I don’t think they are there yet.  This is a game where you have to consider the schedules if you look at stats.  Against FBS teams, Illinois is sec to last in ypg allowed and have given up at least 28 pts in 4 of their 5 games.  Take a look at the offenses they played – Toledo, Kansas, Penn St, Purdue and even FAU isn’t awful as they have 2 solid transfer QB’s and Hermann coaching.  Four of those teams are balanced.  Illinois lost several players from last year and their coordinator but shouldn’t be as bad as the numbers show and I don’t think they are.  They just need to play some weaker teams.  They still are solid up front and have a AA def lineman in Newton.  On the flip side you have Neb who has failed to score over 14 pts in all 3 power 5 matchups.  Last week they were completely dominated by an excellent Mich team and their lone score was a 74 yd run in the fourth while down 45-0 (take those yds out of the stats when looking).  Neb isn’t balanced – that is key – they are thirteenth in the conf in passing and have a team comp % of 53% with a 5-5 ratio.  Illinois is last in rushing yards allowed in big ten but this week they should be able to dial in on the run as the other teams they played could all pass.  I think Illinois will play well on this side of the ball and start evening out their stats as this is probably the weakest off they have played and they are at home.

On the other side Illinois has issues – they have allowed 20 sacks on year and rank last in PFF pass block rating.  The reason for this is that Altmyer isn’t making decisions quick enough and they are leaving all 5 lineman to block with no help to often– they also don’t have Chase Brown so that is why the dropoff.  They have several lineman back from last year so shouldn’t be as bad as they have been.  They still have the top receiver in the big ten statistically and are seventh in big ten in ypg at 390.  I think they will make some changes this week and simplify things – look for Feagin to carry the ball more.  Neb is third in big ten with 14 sacks so this looks like a good matchup for them but 8 of those were against a terrible Col off line where they blitzed a lot.  They have 0 sacks the last 2 games and are twelfth in PFF in pressure rating in the conf (meaning they have to bring more than 4 to get any pressure).  Against the 2 good offenses they played they gave up 36 and 45 points and over 400 yds in both.  Illinois won’t be as good on off as Col and Mich but will be a lot better than the other 3 opp.  I think Neb is solid on def but not as good as their stats.  Tony White is a good def coordinator and their 3-3-5 could create some issues so I don’t expect Illinois to light up the scoreboard.  Neb will be without Reimer (starting LB leads in sacks) and Singleton (starting S).  Illinois does have both guards banged up – no update there but one of the backups has been a starter. 

Illinois contd

Illinois hung with a very good Penn St team – turnovers did them in but they still held them under 400 yds and 4.97 ypp.  It was a game in the second half.  If for some reason they make a change at QB that isn’t that bad – Paddock started at Ball St.  I don’t think they will do this but if Altmyer struggles they could.  One big point to this game is Illinois has struggled with turnovers (sec to last in big ten with 11) but Neb is worst in takeaways with only 4 and both teams are -6 in margin so I think this will help Illinois. Another point is Neb has only made 1 fg (1 for 4 on year) so that could matter.  If this game were week 1 the spread might be around 10 and it would be a no brainer at 3.5.  So is Illinois that much worse and Neb that much better than expected – possibly but I do think the schedule plays a big factor.  Its gut check time for Illinois and I expect a focused team to play their best game so far and get a nice win.

Prediction:  Illinois by 8

Adding 1.5* KY-GA Under 49

Also - FD has Wisc at -155 to win the west.  Even at these odds this is a fantastic bet.  Worth a look - Lets look at schedules below which includes conf losses so far 

Wisc - no losses yet - Rutgers, Iowa, at Ill, Ohio St, at IU, NW, Neb, at Minn

Iowa - 1 loss - PU, at Wisc, Minn, NW, Rut, Ill, at Neb

Illinois - 2 losses - Neb, at MD, Wisc, at Minn, IU, at Iowa, NW

Minn - 1 loss - Mich, at Iowa, Mich St, Ill, at PU, at Ohio St, Wisc

Neb - 2 losses - at Ill, NW, PU, at Mich St, MD, at Wisc, Iowa

Purdue - 1 loss - at Iowa, Ohio St, at Neb, at Mich, Minn, at NW, IU

everyone but Wisc already has a loss - Wisc would have to lose at least 3 games in my opinion.  I consider Ohio St and Mich automatic losses for anyone in the west except maybe Wisc - they have Ohio St at home and have a shot.  Purdue - no chance - they will have 3 losses and lose tiebreaker, Iowa - they are not very good - they would have to win at Wisc - if they did that they could maybe lose 1 more game and do it if Wisc loses to Ohio St - I just don't see Iowa doing it.  Illinois - they would prob have to win out - very tough to see that.  Minn - forget it - they have at least 2 losses coming.  Just can't see Wisc not doing this unless something very drastic happens.  If they beat Iowa next week they probably have to lose 3 other games to not do it - look and see if you see 3 losses - I don't.  

Illinois at 3 in several books - mgm and bet365 r two of them so that is locked in now.  

MONSTER 

2.5* TT-Bay Over 56.5

Total has gone up some and is around 59.5 right now.  Pace of play should be pretty good as TT is number 2 and Baylor is number 44 in plays per second.  Baylor is a diff team with Shapen at QB. Last week they were able move the ball pretty well against UCF and put up 446 yds.  UCF getting out to a big lead was a little misleading as Baylor was in the redzone down 21-7 and had a questionable fumble returned for a td that swung the first half.  Last year they were able to put up 45 on TT.  They have played 2 excellent defenses (Tex & Utah) and both without Shapen  so their stats are skewed.  I think they will be able to score in this one

TT was able to move to put up 49 pts last week (35 on off) and took the foot off the gas in the second half as they were playing with a lead and didn’t go as fast.  They played 2 solid defenses to open the year and the WV game was in the rain where their QB was hurt.  I think this is a pretty good offense and the Baylor defense isn’t what it was a couple years ago so they should be able to score on Baylor.

I think the pace will be there and both teams will have balance on off that will allow them to score some points in this one.  I will ride the TT over for a second straight week.

Prediction:  64 pts

1.5* KY-GA Under 49

Total has gone down some and is around 47.5 or 48.  I was surprised when it went up to 49.  This series has easily gone under this total the past 4 years and tends to be a defensive battle  The pace will be good as KY is number 123 and GA number 95 in plays per second. A lot of talk about GA being down and their def not being as good but this is still a very good defense and only giving up 287 ypg.  KY has played a weak schedule except for last week against FL where they ran for over 300 yds.  No doubt they will want to run the ball and I think that the GA def is down a little to where KY might have some success which will allow them to move the ball some in this game and keep the clock going

KY is number 2 on def in the SEC in ypg at 293 allowed (GA is 3).  GA is a step up for them in terms of offenses they have face but under Stoops KY is always good defensively and should be able to hold their own.  Plus I think they are smart enough on def to figure out a way to contain Bowers.  I expect a defensive game and the clock to move in this one and stay under the total. 

Prediction:  44 pts

1.5* Kansas -3

This is a rare case when I was off badly on line movement.  I bet this assuming Daniels would be out and thought that was already in the spread but now it is Kansas plus 2.   This is an interesting game as I don’t think there is huge drop off with either backup QB.  Still haven’t heard if Plumlee will play – I assumed he wouldn’t since they have a bye next week and McClain has done pretty good.  There doesn’t appear to be a huge diff between the two – I do think they will be a little better with Plumlee.  Kansas is better with Daniels but Bean is probably one of the better backups in the country so I am fine with him starting.  Last week they weren’t expecting Daniels to miss so Bean got no reps in practice (this was commented on) and they faced a top notch def on the road.  This week he will be more prepared.

If you look at stats UCF will look like the better team as they are first in ypg on offense in the conference as they put up over 700 yds on a terrible Kent team.  In their two conf games they are -53 yards in differential and Baylor was able to move the ball well on them.  They thrive on the big play and they have a lot of speed.  There are some similarities between these teams as they like to rely on getting the def out of position.  UCF is off a crushing loss that will be a tough one to bounce back from.  Kansas was off a game they got destroyed but that was by one of the best teams in the country.  I like Leipold and think he will have his team bounce back.  MaIzahn talked about his team being banged up and this is a step up in competition this year for UCF so it will test their depth.  I do think UCF will be a play on team once they come back from their bye.  Kansas is 7-2 at home since the beginning of 2022.  I think these teams are pretty even and I will side with the team that plays a lot better at home.

Prediction:  Kansas by 5

Here is an updated card – could be final but I have a couple more games I will look at later and could post another play or two tomorrow.

4* Purdue +4.5 and 2* Purdue ML +145

3* Texas A&M +4.5

3* Ala-A&M Under 52.5

3* Illinois -3

2.5* TT-Bay Over 56.5

1.5* Kansas -3

1.5* KY-GA Under 49

For those interested I listed public betting % on each one as of Friday morning according to Action Network. These will change some by gametime.  One point – public is not always wrong.  I will look at this info more out of curiosity.  I will say that I would be a little uncomfortable with my picks if most were being bet heavy by the public. 

Purdue – 33% on PU

A&M – 42% on A&M

Ala-A&M Under – 40% on under

Illinois – 32% on Ill

TT-Bay Over – 69% on over

Kansas – 44% on Kansas

KY-GA Under – 76% on under

Good luck to everyone.  I hope the info is helpful.  If you like a side that is opposite one of my picks and you feel good about it I would say to play it and don’t let me sway you.  I will not always be right.  At some point there will be a losing week as that is part of betting on the entire season.  Goal is to profit at the end which can be done but isn’t as easy as people think.  The good thing is there is some leeway now based on the first few weeks which means a bad week can easily be absorbed if it does occur. 

@CFBLMONSTER

 Purdue is terrible, you think they had problems at home against Syracuse and with Wisconsin? They barely beat an awful Va Tech team.

Now they go on the road to Iowa, Purdue is undisciplined and a turnover machine. Iowa has a solid D and is 4-1 despite ZERO offense.

I don't like this game at all.

@CFBLMONSTER

@cnybillsfan

 Well the good news is nobody is forcing you to bet it.  If you feel that strongly you should bet on Iowa.  I am not always right and will never claim to know everything.  Good luck on your plays 

Thanks for sharing my friend.  

@CFBLMONSTER

Great info on the Neb/Illinois game

Thanks for sharing. Love what you do !!!!