Week 5 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 14.8 stars. Was a good week – the TT play was interesting as the total was an excellent play. The spread wasn’t looking good early – Hou did outgain them by 89 yds but with 16 more plays. TT had 2 special teams tds – so debatable on how good of a play it was – they did score on their other 3 FH drives so if they don’t get the special teams tds they might of scored anyway and yds would be diff. At half looked like a back and forth game but then they made adjustments and controlled the second half. Probably not a 5* based on the play but I am ok with the side. Finally had a terrible bet in IU – always some risk with a situational play and I should have known better as that was not a good play. Total for the season now is 23-7 and plus 47.7 stars.
On to this week – trying to post a little early for lines as I already have one game I think will move. You have to watch line releases.
3* Texas A&M plus 4.5
3* Ala-Texas A&M under 52.5
I bet A&M immediately at 6 – its already dropped and I expect it to go around 3 so grab it if you like it. I think under drops to.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Week 5 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 14.8 stars. Was a good week – the TT play was interesting as the total was an excellent play. The spread wasn’t looking good early – Hou did outgain them by 89 yds but with 16 more plays. TT had 2 special teams tds – so debatable on how good of a play it was – they did score on their other 3 FH drives so if they don’t get the special teams tds they might of scored anyway and yds would be diff. At half looked like a back and forth game but then they made adjustments and controlled the second half. Probably not a 5* based on the play but I am ok with the side. Finally had a terrible bet in IU – always some risk with a situational play and I should have known better as that was not a good play. Total for the season now is 23-7 and plus 47.7 stars.
On to this week – trying to post a little early for lines as I already have one game I think will move. You have to watch line releases.
3* Texas A&M plus 4.5
3* Ala-Texas A&M under 52.5
I bet A&M immediately at 6 – its already dropped and I expect it to go around 3 so grab it if you like it. I think under drops to.
Thank you - yes 5 star is the highest - I might comment on a game being above that if I say something like one of better bets of year. I usually don’t use terms like game of year. Sometimes I might rate something a 4 star and play money line - I consider that a 5 - like Purdue this week and GT 2 weeks ago. Purdue actually has 6 stars this week with the ML so for me it’s a very strong play but there r no guarantees and any bet could lose.
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@Boa33
Thank you - yes 5 star is the highest - I might comment on a game being above that if I say something like one of better bets of year. I usually don’t use terms like game of year. Sometimes I might rate something a 4 star and play money line - I consider that a 5 - like Purdue this week and GT 2 weeks ago. Purdue actually has 6 stars this week with the ML so for me it’s a very strong play but there r no guarantees and any bet could lose.
Week 5 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 14.8 stars. Was a good week – the TT play was interesting as the total was an excellent play. The spread wasn’t looking good early – Hou did outgain them by 89 yds but with 16 more plays. TT had 2 special teams tds – so debatable on how good of a play it was – they did score on their other 3 FH drives so if they don’t get the special teams tds they might of scored anyway and yds would be diff. At half looked like a back and forth game but then they made adjustments and controlled the second half. Probably not a 5* based on the play but I am ok with the side. Finally had a terrible bet in IU – always some risk with a situational play and I should have known better as that was not a good play. Total for the season now is 23-7 and plus 47.7 stars. On to this week – trying to post a little early for lines as I already have one game I think will move. You have to watch line releases. 3* Texas A&M plus 4.5 3* Ala-Texas A&M under 52.5 I bet A&M immediately at 6 – its already dropped and I expect it to go around 3 so grab it if you like it. I think under drops to.
Good lines!
Congrats on a great week
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:
Week 5 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 14.8 stars. Was a good week – the TT play was interesting as the total was an excellent play. The spread wasn’t looking good early – Hou did outgain them by 89 yds but with 16 more plays. TT had 2 special teams tds – so debatable on how good of a play it was – they did score on their other 3 FH drives so if they don’t get the special teams tds they might of scored anyway and yds would be diff. At half looked like a back and forth game but then they made adjustments and controlled the second half. Probably not a 5* based on the play but I am ok with the side. Finally had a terrible bet in IU – always some risk with a situational play and I should have known better as that was not a good play. Total for the season now is 23-7 and plus 47.7 stars. On to this week – trying to post a little early for lines as I already have one game I think will move. You have to watch line releases. 3* Texas A&M plus 4.5 3* Ala-Texas A&M under 52.5 I bet A&M immediately at 6 – its already dropped and I expect it to go around 3 so grab it if you like it. I think under drops to.
Thanks for the question. I will give you my opinion on teasers - they r not smart to do in college - save them for the nfl. Many college games end up off the spread by over a td so I would do a pleaser before a teaser - a pleaser u give pts away - be like Purdue -3.5 for odds. I am not 100% against them and I will do one every now and then and usually do one with 3 teams and like 13 pts - FanDuel has best teaser odds. I would do it to cover a parlay - example if I bet 3 games say a couple grand a game I will also do a parlay / let’s say for 500 - I might do a teaser for 500 to cover the parlay. In general it’s not a good thing to do. I could see doing a teaser for a lot less to cover juice - example - 2 bets for 1000 and a teaser for 250 - that way if u split and one bet is close you win a little. Just my opinion - in the end do what makes you comfortable. I use to post alt spread bets - I haven’t been doing that this year but at times will do one for odds - it gives points away. I am not a fan of buying points either - i don’t think it is smart. If u give -130 to get to 3 or 7 you give away juice so for that to payoff the game has to land exactly on that number every 5 losses cause every loss u lose 20% more money and it only pays off or the game lands on the number - which could happen. I could see doing it in the nfl more than college.
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@Boa33
Thanks for the question. I will give you my opinion on teasers - they r not smart to do in college - save them for the nfl. Many college games end up off the spread by over a td so I would do a pleaser before a teaser - a pleaser u give pts away - be like Purdue -3.5 for odds. I am not 100% against them and I will do one every now and then and usually do one with 3 teams and like 13 pts - FanDuel has best teaser odds. I would do it to cover a parlay - example if I bet 3 games say a couple grand a game I will also do a parlay / let’s say for 500 - I might do a teaser for 500 to cover the parlay. In general it’s not a good thing to do. I could see doing a teaser for a lot less to cover juice - example - 2 bets for 1000 and a teaser for 250 - that way if u split and one bet is close you win a little. Just my opinion - in the end do what makes you comfortable. I use to post alt spread bets - I haven’t been doing that this year but at times will do one for odds - it gives points away. I am not a fan of buying points either - i don’t think it is smart. If u give -130 to get to 3 or 7 you give away juice so for that to payoff the game has to land exactly on that number every 5 losses cause every loss u lose 20% more money and it only pays off or the game lands on the number - which could happen. I could see doing it in the nfl more than college.
I appreciate what you provide on the forum. I have been following you the past couple of years and you are one of the best. Definitely quality over quantity when it comes to making your plays.
Looking forward to your write ups and wishing you a profitable season.
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@CFBLMONSTER
Thank you for your feedback. Makes sense.
I appreciate what you provide on the forum. I have been following you the past couple of years and you are one of the best. Definitely quality over quantity when it comes to making your plays.
Looking forward to your write ups and wishing you a profitable season.
I’m adding a 1.5* in Kansas -3 - see some 3.5 lines out there so if anyone likes this one I would grab it at 3 - don’t see it getting better
also adding a 3* on Illinois - for this I am going to recommend waiting - spread is 3.5 everywhere - I am waiting to see if it goes back to 3. I am not sure what this line will do - it could go up and prob should but I would risk it going to 4 with the chance of it going to 3. If it goes 4 everywhere I would place at that. I do this sometimes - some numbers r worth the risk of waiting.
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Last2thirst - thank you for your comment
I’m adding a 1.5* in Kansas -3 - see some 3.5 lines out there so if anyone likes this one I would grab it at 3 - don’t see it getting better
also adding a 3* on Illinois - for this I am going to recommend waiting - spread is 3.5 everywhere - I am waiting to see if it goes back to 3. I am not sure what this line will do - it could go up and prob should but I would risk it going to 4 with the chance of it going to 3. If it goes 4 everywhere I would place at that. I do this sometimes - some numbers r worth the risk of waiting.
Before my first write up I want to point out something. Shop for lines - use as many books as you can cause you never know when a half point or point will matter. This is where bankroll helps - I am constantly withdrawing and depositing - I will deposit in a book to get an extra half point. If you are using mobile apps - most of them will let you cash out a bet if the spread hasn't moved. So if you place a bet then later in time see a better spread elsewhere and the spread hasn't changed in your book then cash it out and place your bet with the better spread. Example - last week I had Texas A&M -6.5 placed in 1 book - FD line dropped to 5.5 but it was still 6.5 in my original book. I cashed out the bet and placed in FD - got me a point better. About 30 min later it dropped to 6 - its why i frequently check lines. Take adv of these things.
4* Purdue +4.5 and 2* Purdue ML plus 145
Line is down to 2.5 since my post. I would still play it – would probably down it a star at that spread. Iowa has been outgained in every game but Western Michigan and failed to get over 284 yds in all but the WM game. They are the worst off in the big ten by far (65 ypg worse than everyone). They are -80 in yardage differential and they have played several weak opponents. They lost their best offensive player – Lachey – a couple weeks ago, have 2 of their 3 running backs hurt (no word if they will ret this week but it doesn't matter), and lost McNamara last week. Their top pass catching WR has 8 catches on year – top in yardage is 79 yds (excluding TE’s). They have 10 less plays over 10 yds on off than the second worst team and are the worst team in red zone TD%. To say their offense stinks is an understatement. The only teams worse in ypg in the nation is Sam Houston and Kent. They now have a backup QB making his first start – Hill was 15-35 for 164 yds last week and he is not mobile. They have absolutely nothing on offense. They were outplayed by Mich St – yardage was 349-222 and Mich St had 10 penalties, threw pick in endzone, missed a fg, gave up a punt ret, failed on a 4 and 1 in own territory when winning in sec half, and fumbled in own territory and still should have won. Their def isn’t as dominate this year – only 3 sacks on year and they have only 7 takeaways (-2 in TO margin).
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Before my first write up I want to point out something. Shop for lines - use as many books as you can cause you never know when a half point or point will matter. This is where bankroll helps - I am constantly withdrawing and depositing - I will deposit in a book to get an extra half point. If you are using mobile apps - most of them will let you cash out a bet if the spread hasn't moved. So if you place a bet then later in time see a better spread elsewhere and the spread hasn't changed in your book then cash it out and place your bet with the better spread. Example - last week I had Texas A&M -6.5 placed in 1 book - FD line dropped to 5.5 but it was still 6.5 in my original book. I cashed out the bet and placed in FD - got me a point better. About 30 min later it dropped to 6 - its why i frequently check lines. Take adv of these things.
4* Purdue +4.5 and 2* Purdue ML plus 145
Line is down to 2.5 since my post. I would still play it – would probably down it a star at that spread. Iowa has been outgained in every game but Western Michigan and failed to get over 284 yds in all but the WM game. They are the worst off in the big ten by far (65 ypg worse than everyone). They are -80 in yardage differential and they have played several weak opponents. They lost their best offensive player – Lachey – a couple weeks ago, have 2 of their 3 running backs hurt (no word if they will ret this week but it doesn't matter), and lost McNamara last week. Their top pass catching WR has 8 catches on year – top in yardage is 79 yds (excluding TE’s). They have 10 less plays over 10 yds on off than the second worst team and are the worst team in red zone TD%. To say their offense stinks is an understatement. The only teams worse in ypg in the nation is Sam Houston and Kent. They now have a backup QB making his first start – Hill was 15-35 for 164 yds last week and he is not mobile. They have absolutely nothing on offense. They were outplayed by Mich St – yardage was 349-222 and Mich St had 10 penalties, threw pick in endzone, missed a fg, gave up a punt ret, failed on a 4 and 1 in own territory when winning in sec half, and fumbled in own territory and still should have won. Their def isn’t as dominate this year – only 3 sacks on year and they have only 7 takeaways (-2 in TO margin).
Purdue has played a brutal schedule – no easy games. They are starting to find it on both sides of the ball. Offensively, I really like Card as he can pass and is mobile. They have more balance than they have had in years as they have run it well with a balance of speed and power(Tracy averages 6.26 ypc). Burks is developing into a good receiver and their line has only give up 8 sacks. Turnovers hurt them against Syr and Wisc – last week much better. Defense was called by Walters last week and they are aggressive. They blitz a lot and play man coverage. They are second in conf in sacks with 16. They have struggled with the QB running in a few games but his week Hill isn’t mobile so that won’t be a factor. When looking at the stats for Purdue keep in mind the opponents – Fresno, Syr, Wisc, Ill all can move the ball well - this is why they are twelfth in ypg as they are the only team without a single easy game– they are starting to grasp the scheme.
I look at this game and don’t see how Iowa has any success on offense. Purdue will pressure like crazy and they avg 6.8 TFL per game (sec in conf). Hill will make mistakes in this game with the pressure as the receivers for Iowa aren’t good enough to separate in man coverage. They will be in third and long a lot which will be trouble for them. Iowa will run screens – as long as Purdue doesn’t allow a screen to pop for a big gainer I don’t think Iowa can drive the field on them. Iowa no longer has the huge turnover edge they have had in the past and in this game I think Purdue will generate the mistakes. Walters def last year held Iowa to 6 pts. Purdue is good enough on off to move the ball some as they have balance and Card is mobile. Iowa has not shown the ability to pressure well so I like Card and he should have time to throw. This is still a very good Iowa def so don’t expect Purdue to light up the scoreboard. Iowa does have a significant edge in special teams so they might generate some field position with that but I don’t see that making a big enough impact. Purdue is the second best team in the west and they are starting to hit their stride on both sides of the ball. This will be the beginning of a difficult 2 weeks for Iowa. I look for Purdue to control this game and get out of Iowa City with a win and I don’t think there will be a question on which team is better when its over.
Prediction: Purdue by 11
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Purdue write up cont.
Purdue has played a brutal schedule – no easy games. They are starting to find it on both sides of the ball. Offensively, I really like Card as he can pass and is mobile. They have more balance than they have had in years as they have run it well with a balance of speed and power(Tracy averages 6.26 ypc). Burks is developing into a good receiver and their line has only give up 8 sacks. Turnovers hurt them against Syr and Wisc – last week much better. Defense was called by Walters last week and they are aggressive. They blitz a lot and play man coverage. They are second in conf in sacks with 16. They have struggled with the QB running in a few games but his week Hill isn’t mobile so that won’t be a factor. When looking at the stats for Purdue keep in mind the opponents – Fresno, Syr, Wisc, Ill all can move the ball well - this is why they are twelfth in ypg as they are the only team without a single easy game– they are starting to grasp the scheme.
I look at this game and don’t see how Iowa has any success on offense. Purdue will pressure like crazy and they avg 6.8 TFL per game (sec in conf). Hill will make mistakes in this game with the pressure as the receivers for Iowa aren’t good enough to separate in man coverage. They will be in third and long a lot which will be trouble for them. Iowa will run screens – as long as Purdue doesn’t allow a screen to pop for a big gainer I don’t think Iowa can drive the field on them. Iowa no longer has the huge turnover edge they have had in the past and in this game I think Purdue will generate the mistakes. Walters def last year held Iowa to 6 pts. Purdue is good enough on off to move the ball some as they have balance and Card is mobile. Iowa has not shown the ability to pressure well so I like Card and he should have time to throw. This is still a very good Iowa def so don’t expect Purdue to light up the scoreboard. Iowa does have a significant edge in special teams so they might generate some field position with that but I don’t see that making a big enough impact. Purdue is the second best team in the west and they are starting to hit their stride on both sides of the ball. This will be the beginning of a difficult 2 weeks for Iowa. I look for Purdue to control this game and get out of Iowa City with a win and I don’t think there will be a question on which team is better when its over.
Like that Purdue play.....also leaning U40ish.....how do these 2 teams get over 40 points? Iowa will most definitely be running a bunch and punting to try and play field position. I dont think either team really had a chance for explosive plays......
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Like that Purdue play.....also leaning U40ish.....how do these 2 teams get over 40 points? Iowa will most definitely be running a bunch and punting to try and play field position. I dont think either team really had a chance for explosive plays......
Line is down to 2.5 since my post. I would still play it as is. I don’t go against Bama very often but I really like this matchup. Bama is eleventh in off ypg and thirteenth in pass ypg in the SEC. They have given up 20 sacks and are twelfth in plays over 10 yds and thirteenth in pass plays over 10 yds in SEC. Bama has only gained over 362 yds once this year (MTSU – only 431 in that one). This is not your same Bama offense at all and now they play a def that is absolutely nasty. A&M is third in nation in TFL at 9.8 per game – Bama is twelfth in SEC in TFL allowed. A&M has 20 sacks on year. They last 2 weeks they were completely dominant – Auburn gained 200 yds and was sacked 7 times – Ark gained 174 yds and was sacked 7 times. Neither could do anything and both had mobile qbs which will help them in preparing for Bama. Throw in they are at home in what will be a crazy crowd and this is a nightmare matchup for Bama. A&M is first in SEC in ypg allowed. Some might look and say they gave up 48 to Miami so they can’t be that good. That was week 2 and that score is misleading. Miami has a good offense and Van Dyke made some good plays – they had pass plays of 48, 52, 32, 64. This happens sometimes early on and Bama will not have near the passing game of Miami. In that game – A&M down 21-17 in third had a fourth and one at the miami 6 and had a false start – kick the fg then Miami ret kick for td then next series an A&M receiver fell down on an in route and Miami picked pass off – now 31-20. That sequence changed the game – was really an even game.
I like Max Johnson at QB and A&M has gained over 400 ypg every game. They are balanced and have only given up 7 sacks. Bama is still excellent on def so A&M won’t light it up. Bama only scoring td on 52% in redzone (sec to last in conf) going against the top red zone def (A&M 37% and eighth in nation). Bama has an excellent fg kicker so they have an edge there (A&M kicker is solid to).
The crowd will be nuts for this game and you will see a swarming defense in A&M get after Bama in this one. I think this will be a defensive slugfest so getting a few points is huge. I think right now A&M is the better team and probably should be fav but Bama is still Bama so that has them as the favorite. The west will be a mess at the end of the year as these teams will beat up on each other and I could see all of them with at least 2 losses. I think A&M gets this game behind a defense that just might develop into the top defense in the nation.
Prediction: Texas A&M by 6
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3* Texas A&M +4.5
Line is down to 2.5 since my post. I would still play it as is. I don’t go against Bama very often but I really like this matchup. Bama is eleventh in off ypg and thirteenth in pass ypg in the SEC. They have given up 20 sacks and are twelfth in plays over 10 yds and thirteenth in pass plays over 10 yds in SEC. Bama has only gained over 362 yds once this year (MTSU – only 431 in that one). This is not your same Bama offense at all and now they play a def that is absolutely nasty. A&M is third in nation in TFL at 9.8 per game – Bama is twelfth in SEC in TFL allowed. A&M has 20 sacks on year. They last 2 weeks they were completely dominant – Auburn gained 200 yds and was sacked 7 times – Ark gained 174 yds and was sacked 7 times. Neither could do anything and both had mobile qbs which will help them in preparing for Bama. Throw in they are at home in what will be a crazy crowd and this is a nightmare matchup for Bama. A&M is first in SEC in ypg allowed. Some might look and say they gave up 48 to Miami so they can’t be that good. That was week 2 and that score is misleading. Miami has a good offense and Van Dyke made some good plays – they had pass plays of 48, 52, 32, 64. This happens sometimes early on and Bama will not have near the passing game of Miami. In that game – A&M down 21-17 in third had a fourth and one at the miami 6 and had a false start – kick the fg then Miami ret kick for td then next series an A&M receiver fell down on an in route and Miami picked pass off – now 31-20. That sequence changed the game – was really an even game.
I like Max Johnson at QB and A&M has gained over 400 ypg every game. They are balanced and have only given up 7 sacks. Bama is still excellent on def so A&M won’t light it up. Bama only scoring td on 52% in redzone (sec to last in conf) going against the top red zone def (A&M 37% and eighth in nation). Bama has an excellent fg kicker so they have an edge there (A&M kicker is solid to).
The crowd will be nuts for this game and you will see a swarming defense in A&M get after Bama in this one. I think this will be a defensive slugfest so getting a few points is huge. I think right now A&M is the better team and probably should be fav but Bama is still Bama so that has them as the favorite. The west will be a mess at the end of the year as these teams will beat up on each other and I could see all of them with at least 2 losses. I think A&M gets this game behind a defense that just might develop into the top defense in the nation.
Adding an alt total line on this one as a 1* on the under 41.5
3* Bama/A&M Under 52.5 and adding 1* Game Under 41.5 +196
Total dropping but is very strong still. Won’t do a complete write up as I covered it above. I see this going way under as I think it will be a slugfest. Both defenses are strong. We have an overtime risk so hopefully that doesn’t happen but this game could even survive that.
Prediction: 26 pts
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Adding an alt total line on this one as a 1* on the under 41.5
3* Bama/A&M Under 52.5 and adding 1* Game Under 41.5 +196
Total dropping but is very strong still. Won’t do a complete write up as I covered it above. I see this going way under as I think it will be a slugfest. Both defenses are strong. We have an overtime risk so hopefully that doesn’t happen but this game could even survive that.
Train - i agree - i hate low totals but in this one I can't see Iowa over 10 points and their def won't give up 30. I am seeing a 20-9 type game unless there are turnovers.
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@TRAIN69
Train - i agree - i hate low totals but in this one I can't see Iowa over 10 points and their def won't give up 30. I am seeing a 20-9 type game unless there are turnovers.
@TRAIN69 Train - i agree - i hate low totals but in this one I can't see Iowa over 10 points and their def won't give up 30. I am seeing a 20-9 type game unless there are turnovers.
Sounds accurate. U less theres special team blunders or pick 6s....the 2 defenses are better than the Os.....
CFBM
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Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:
@TRAIN69 Train - i agree - i hate low totals but in this one I can't see Iowa over 10 points and their def won't give up 30. I am seeing a 20-9 type game unless there are turnovers.
Sounds accurate. U less theres special team blunders or pick 6s....the 2 defenses are better than the Os.....
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