a) Play ON an away dog of less than ten points who had the lesser wins the prior season compared to their present opponent (but not less than 9 wins), in a game between two FBS opponents......
67-34 ATS (+2.3), 36-53 o/u (-2.6), 47-54 straight up (-3.7)
average line +5.9/52.6, average score 23.2-26.9
ON SD State, UConn, Virginia, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa
Plays (all for one unit)
1) Virginia +3
2) Baylor +3
3) Kansas +6
4) Iowa +3
Query text.....
AD and week=2 and line < 10 and -9 < tpS(W)-opS(W) < 0 and division=FBS and o:division=FBS
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
7-4 STD.
I utilize on an online database.
a) Play ON an away dog of less than ten points who had the lesser wins the prior season compared to their present opponent (but not less than 9 wins), in a game between two FBS opponents......
67-34 ATS (+2.3), 36-53 o/u (-2.6), 47-54 straight up (-3.7)
average line +5.9/52.6, average score 23.2-26.9
ON SD State, UConn, Virginia, Baylor, Kansas, Iowa
Plays (all for one unit)
1) Virginia +3
2) Baylor +3
3) Kansas +6
4) Iowa +3
Query text.....
AD and week=2 and line < 10 and -9 < tpS(W)-opS(W) < 0 and division=FBS and o:division=FBS
b) Play ON a week two away dog of less than or equal to 14 points between FBS opponents off a home loss....25-18 ATS (+1.0), 13-27 o/u (-4.1).....Sam Houston State, SH State UNDER, Baylor, Baylor UNDER
Plays:
1) Baylor +3
2) Kansas +6
3) Virginia +3
4) Iowa +3
5) Sam Houston State +9
6) Baylor UNDER 65'
7) Sam Houston State UNDER 49
8) Virginia UNDER 53'
9) Iowa UNDER 41
10) Kansas UNDER 51
11) San Diego State +2'
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Week 2, the default is still to play UNDERs.
b) Play ON a week two away dog of less than or equal to 14 points between FBS opponents off a home loss....25-18 ATS (+1.0), 13-27 o/u (-4.1).....Sam Houston State, SH State UNDER, Baylor, Baylor UNDER
Another team to look at is Rice. They switched to the option this year and Houston isn't used to seeing it. Last week the Owls rushed for over 200 at Louisiana, held the ball for over 36 minutes, and the two teams combined had 123 total plays. National average in college football is around 175 total plays. Rice is +12' in that game.
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@Indigo999
Another team to look at is Rice. They switched to the option this year and Houston isn't used to seeing it. Last week the Owls rushed for over 200 at Louisiana, held the ball for over 36 minutes, and the two teams combined had 123 total plays. National average in college football is around 175 total plays. Rice is +12' in that game.
There are no overlay lines unless the total is at least 45. Anything less than 45 is based upon what is reasonable. The way I see it, Iowa, Iowa state could be the rare exception but those are considered to be low data result plays. Even if strong ROI, I avoid them.
Iowa State crushed the over last year when their totals were below 45 several more than half their total lined under 45 went over by 10 points. Maybe that’s a good thing this season for unders for them. They do have a good QB.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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There are no overlay lines unless the total is at least 45. Anything less than 45 is based upon what is reasonable. The way I see it, Iowa, Iowa state could be the rare exception but those are considered to be low data result plays. Even if strong ROI, I avoid them.
Iowa State crushed the over last year when their totals were below 45 several more than half their total lined under 45 went over by 10 points. Maybe that’s a good thing this season for unders for them. They do have a good QB.
@Indigo999 I cut and eliminate what I like and what I’m congruent with. what I posted is plain and generic. You can cut what suits you. You mentioned you don’t like to many cuts so take it your direction. Plain and generic starts at 60/40 is a good beginning 63% on Iowa under. No I have not but your overwhelming concern for public sides, convinced me to pass along info. Do what you like with it. I don’t like totals under 45 because the unders are more popular.
LOL.....I have an "overwhelming concern", as you put it on not taking sides, especially underdogs, that the majority of the public is on, and I have not once mentioned fading public bet totals.
I'll take a look at totals, see if there is some relevance. My initial take, not based on any data whatsoever is that more savvy bettors would be inclined to take totals and it may not be a worthwhile, profitable thing to fade the public.
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Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
@Indigo999 I cut and eliminate what I like and what I’m congruent with. what I posted is plain and generic. You can cut what suits you. You mentioned you don’t like to many cuts so take it your direction. Plain and generic starts at 60/40 is a good beginning 63% on Iowa under. No I have not but your overwhelming concern for public sides, convinced me to pass along info. Do what you like with it. I don’t like totals under 45 because the unders are more popular.
LOL.....I have an "overwhelming concern", as you put it on not taking sides, especially underdogs, that the majority of the public is on, and I have not once mentioned fading public bet totals.
I'll take a look at totals, see if there is some relevance. My initial take, not based on any data whatsoever is that more savvy bettors would be inclined to take totals and it may not be a worthwhile, profitable thing to fade the public.
@Indigo999 Another team to look at is Rice. They switched to the option this year and Houston isn't used to seeing it. Last week the Owls rushed for over 200 at Louisiana, held the ball for over 36 minutes, and the two teams combined had 123 total plays. National average in college football is around 175 total plays. Rice is +12' in that game.
I love option teams....and the issue now is, a lot of bettors are now loving Rice as well. I have found that option teams and teams with running quarterbacks in the NFL tend to be better on the road than at home.
I'll be on Rice, Army, Navy and Air Force (except when they play each other) this season when they play on the road.....all the best to you this season.
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Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:
@Indigo999 Another team to look at is Rice. They switched to the option this year and Houston isn't used to seeing it. Last week the Owls rushed for over 200 at Louisiana, held the ball for over 36 minutes, and the two teams combined had 123 total plays. National average in college football is around 175 total plays. Rice is +12' in that game.
I love option teams....and the issue now is, a lot of bettors are now loving Rice as well. I have found that option teams and teams with running quarterbacks in the NFL tend to be better on the road than at home.
I'll be on Rice, Army, Navy and Air Force (except when they play each other) this season when they play on the road.....all the best to you this season.
You keep track of certain things about games. I have done extensive research on totals in the off season.
I have found the best range to be 45-60. What I have found makes me very confident . Anything outside of my findings I would keep tabs of. I don’t want to mention this to cause a hex or voodoo but I prefer speaking about this before the games. If perhaps my findings are correct mentioning it after the fact could be taken out of context.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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Just working at this.
keeping this about making great selections.
You keep track of certain things about games. I have done extensive research on totals in the off season.
I have found the best range to be 45-60. What I have found makes me very confident . Anything outside of my findings I would keep tabs of. I don’t want to mention this to cause a hex or voodoo but I prefer speaking about this before the games. If perhaps my findings are correct mentioning it after the fact could be taken out of context.
.....Vsin has fanduel having UConn percentage at 24%, and the covers contest has them at 43%.....we've waited awhile which could bite us, as lines have moved with us for the most part.....UConn opened at +8
_____________________________
Plays:
1) Baylor +3
2) Kansas +6
3) Virginia +3
4) Iowa +3
5) Sam Houston State +9
6) Baylor UNDER 65'
7) Sam Houston State UNDER 49
8) Virginia UNDER 53'
9) Iowa UNDER 41
10) Kansas UNDER 51
11) Army +17
We have four 12 noon games...we'll see how we go...if we go at least go 500 on them we'll start playing against public dogs.....the possible suspects right now are VERSUS: 1) Jax State 2) Rice
One goal this year is to do the best historical research possible to find past favorable situations....very data based, and left brained, (most bettors are primarily right brained) and then use as a filter to not bet on our sides where the public has a majority of bets on our indicated teams. Ninety percent of this process is data and 10% is gut.
Is it the usual or common?....no, just as there are many ways to make a living, there's differing processes that each of us use in our life endeavors,...and results should speak for themselves....Bill Parcells would say, "you are what your record (or your profit/loss statement) says you are."
And, so there will be those of you that say "I have this feeling that team A is gonna beat the spread this weekend" (and I'm thinking "what historical data do you have to back that up?"),....... Mister Gut Feeler is accessing his right brain (or his gut),...and I'm fine with what he's doing for him, but it is not me. It is like asking or telling me to like pineapple on my pizza, when I hate pineapple on my pizza.
I am not here to convince you my way is the best, or the superior way. It is common on a betting forum that people get competitive and want to outdo others, and the result is trash talk, etc. When someone does something in an nonconventional way it is human nature for some to dismiss or belittle those efforts, But in essence in our little world, we are really competing with the bookmakers and ourselves and not other people that want to win in this marketplace.........
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Plays:
Adding:
12) UConn +6'
.....Vsin has fanduel having UConn percentage at 24%, and the covers contest has them at 43%.....we've waited awhile which could bite us, as lines have moved with us for the most part.....UConn opened at +8
_____________________________
Plays:
1) Baylor +3
2) Kansas +6
3) Virginia +3
4) Iowa +3
5) Sam Houston State +9
6) Baylor UNDER 65'
7) Sam Houston State UNDER 49
8) Virginia UNDER 53'
9) Iowa UNDER 41
10) Kansas UNDER 51
11) Army +17
We have four 12 noon games...we'll see how we go...if we go at least go 500 on them we'll start playing against public dogs.....the possible suspects right now are VERSUS: 1) Jax State 2) Rice
One goal this year is to do the best historical research possible to find past favorable situations....very data based, and left brained, (most bettors are primarily right brained) and then use as a filter to not bet on our sides where the public has a majority of bets on our indicated teams. Ninety percent of this process is data and 10% is gut.
Is it the usual or common?....no, just as there are many ways to make a living, there's differing processes that each of us use in our life endeavors,...and results should speak for themselves....Bill Parcells would say, "you are what your record (or your profit/loss statement) says you are."
And, so there will be those of you that say "I have this feeling that team A is gonna beat the spread this weekend" (and I'm thinking "what historical data do you have to back that up?"),....... Mister Gut Feeler is accessing his right brain (or his gut),...and I'm fine with what he's doing for him, but it is not me. It is like asking or telling me to like pineapple on my pizza, when I hate pineapple on my pizza.
I am not here to convince you my way is the best, or the superior way. It is common on a betting forum that people get competitive and want to outdo others, and the result is trash talk, etc. When someone does something in an nonconventional way it is human nature for some to dismiss or belittle those efforts, But in essence in our little world, we are really competing with the bookmakers and ourselves and not other people that want to win in this marketplace.........
d) As away dogs of less than twenty points between FBS opponents, teams that outrush attempt their present opponent cover 71% of the time, by an average of 7.2 points/game.
In our case we're looking at Army who are around +17 points...the record for those teams is 1240-501-42 ATS. 291 times those teams have lost by over 17 points, or around 17% of the time. Those teams have won straight up about 50% of the time with an average line of +8.1. We can postulate that Army will outrush attempt Kansas State in this game...we'll see how it goes.
e) Canadian Football League non-divisional home dogs have been 30-12-2 ATS (+4.1) in September....careful there as starting qb for Ottawa has been limited in practice this week, though Crum his backup is not too bad.....ON Redblacks.
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d) As away dogs of less than twenty points between FBS opponents, teams that outrush attempt their present opponent cover 71% of the time, by an average of 7.2 points/game.
In our case we're looking at Army who are around +17 points...the record for those teams is 1240-501-42 ATS. 291 times those teams have lost by over 17 points, or around 17% of the time. Those teams have won straight up about 50% of the time with an average line of +8.1. We can postulate that Army will outrush attempt Kansas State in this game...we'll see how it goes.
e) Canadian Football League non-divisional home dogs have been 30-12-2 ATS (+4.1) in September....careful there as starting qb for Ottawa has been limited in practice this week, though Crum his backup is not too bad.....ON Redblacks.
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