Week 12 Lines Discussion

Another great week in the books. Went 4-1 on spreads since I decided to add PSU 1st half before game time, and hit the +200 Wake ml. Lost PSU and Iowa ml with under a min left. What ya gonna do. Awesome week though. 

As the weeks have rolled on the plays have been shrinking. Each week the lines get tighter and tighter so fewer opportunities present themselves. 

A little short on time right now so I will post more games I'm considering later. As of right now I have just one play:

BOISE +120 - They are the better team in my opinion and in the better situation. SDSU is coming back from the tough travel to Hawaii and back after getting smoked by Hawaii. Boise is coming off their bye with an extra week to prepare and no travel after getting embarrassed at home by Fresno. I will be betting alt lines for Boise too, but wanted to lock in this nice plus money first while it lasts. 

Boise QB is out ...... might still work

Yes sir. Im alright with it, it's a great spot for Boise

Interesting I'll look into that. BOL 

Here are more games I'm considering. Interested to know what people think:

CLEM +125 - Clemson's season is over. But maybe Dabo can motivate them to get to a winning record and try to spoil whatever hopes Louisville might have. Louisville is not winning games they should. Coming off a bad loss at home vs CAL. They lost earlier at home as a favorite against UVA as well. LOU does not play well as a favorite. 

CIN -6.5 - Cincy sitting at 7-2 and off a bye week after a 31 pt beat down in Utah. We have Arizona coming to town after squeaking by Kansas with a TD with under a min remaining. We also have west coast team traveling east for early start in play here. Cincy should get it done. I'm waiting on this one to see if it comes down to 5.5 maybe. 

OKST +20.5 - This is just a lot of points for KSU to be laying. If I do decide to get involved I will wait and see if it gets higher

SC +19.5 - The Gamecocks have been scrappy and hanging around in games. They lost by 9 at MIZ, 10 at LSU, 19 vs OU, 7 vs Bama, 16 at Ole Miss. Can they do the same here at TAMU? 

More to come...

WIS +29.5 - Was +30.5 so we'll wait on this one. Just so many points and Indiana should have this game in hand. This could be an ugly low effort game in my opinion. We've got a total at just 44.5. 35-10 final sounds good.

PSU -6.5 - Had a nice win with them last week, unfortunate heart break ending for them. MSU is a team they should be able to push around and physically dominate. 

UCLA +33.5 - Another bucket of points in a game with a total that is only 48.5. Could be similar to last week where OSU beat Purdue 34-10. Probably they should be looking ahead to conserving themselves for playoffs in a game here that they probably won't be challenged in

S Car 

Cincy  They have a big game on deck and this line stinks.  Cincy doesnt belong ranked in my opinion. Their best wins came against a struggling Baylor team and OKST.  I have this tagged as a weak favorite but a good dog next week against BYU. I have Tex Tch Utah BYU  then Cincy.  Looking at the big 12 teams as Home favorites in 2025 ( eliminating the standouts Utah and Texa Tech) The rest of the big 12 teams as home favorites are 12-15 ATS. I could dig even further into ths to make the point that Cincy and the rest of the B12 favorites are not worthy but I have made my case.  Minimum this is a bet that cashes less than 48% according to the data.

Just so I am Clear its not a great bet on Zona either and I want to make certain I am not bashing or fading you intentionally.  Just making you aware of my vision. 

Best Wishes

these are the more difficult weeks for me but I do trust the data, and my search ideas