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Week 1 picks with analysis........................................ba goes pro

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Posted: #101

Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Longhornhoosier, upsdriver, combato are just the start of what is going to be coming ..... who are here for no other reason than to question you, torment you, antagonize you out of jealousy, or mental illness, or this is there way to try to get attention. What is hilarious is 2 out of the 3 I mentioned are rookies, or they have created new handles. How can we ever forget all the abuse this types gave Boom. Anyone who has the time or the desire to go back to review a years postings has a serious mental issues.  Might want to consider calling your close personal friend from across the street BigQueenQH to cover over here to take care of your light work, as no one in this world can do it better. He has all the resources and tools to bury these naysayers of yours.

 

All I asked for was a won loss record from BA which he obviously is not going to provide.  Not jealousy.  Only a request for transparency.

 
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Posted: #102

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

WOW!...these are very serious charges!.....      * sorry I've been busy  'scripting' out weeks 1 > 3....setting lines for every game...identifying good / bad spots for most EVERY team.....disregarding Covers politics / the sensibilities of other cappers entirely....I say this with the deepest regret ! LESSEE here.....the charge is:   I stunk in 2018 correct?  >>  fine point...EXCEPT  I have stated this numerous times myself.....addressing this in this very thread and othersAlso:      I LEFT!!.... I was just SO bad .....in disgrace I reckon !....THE HORROR.....THE SHAME.....AH DEATH WHERE IS THY STING !............  * how can I be counted on??!!!!.......wtf BA why don't you tell us!....something must be up!...the UPS driver has you it appears !!!!   >> excellent point except....he made it up ha  Also:  "he really doesn't make that many plays anyway!....how do we know he's reliable?!.....wtf is going on here?!!!!  >> got me again.....compared to LH...Combato...and the Pride of Covers (UPS guy)....I fall way behind againlast 7 years only 1652 plays....hitting 965  * the guilt I feel is crippling.....why do I even bother with those boys around to drive the forum?I hope that helps ....I hope I haven't upset anybody...if so I will stop posting...with a warm feeling in my heart knowing that  COMBATO...LH...their new pal UPS guy....and possibly trusted capping wiz VEGAS JASON as a consultant ....will be here to take care of you boys / drive the forum

 

Thanks for the 7 year record of wins and losses.. Very impressive 58%.  Extremely impressive.  Thank you for posting your record.

With a sample size that large, your Z score also checks out very high (which is a good thing).  To be sure, I have never paid that much attention to your picks but I have read your posts with interest.

No hard feelings from me BA.  You posted what i requested and UPS Driver must have been working with a much smaller sample size.

 
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Posted: #103
Where are your picks located or going to be located on the site that covers is paying you to do?
 
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Posted: #104

I'm not even convinced by Gattis' play calling (hasn't done it yet) but the fact that he will run a no huddle offence means it's going to be much easier to cover the number. I see a score of 56-7; maybe even a shutout.

 
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Posted: #105

Quote Originally Posted by combato:

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

WOW!...these are very serious charges!.....      * sorry I've been busy  'scripting' out weeks 1 > 3....setting lines for every game...identifying good / bad spots for most EVERY team.....disregarding Covers politics / the sensibilities of other cappers entirely....I say this with the deepest regret ! LESSEE here.....the charge is:   I stunk in 2018 correct?  >>  fine point...EXCEPT  I have stated this numerous times myself.....addressing this in this very thread and othersAlso:      I LEFT!!.... I was just SO bad .....in disgrace I reckon !....THE HORROR.....THE SHAME.....AH DEATH WHERE IS THY STING !............  * how can I be counted on??!!!!.......wtf BA why don't you tell us!....something must be up!...the UPS driver has you it appears !!!!   >> excellent point except....he made it up ha  Also:  "he really doesn't make that many plays anyway!....how do we know he's reliable?!.....wtf is going on here?!!!!  >> got me again.....compared to LH...Combato...and the Pride of Covers (UPS guy)....I fall way behind againlast 7 years only 1652 plays....hitting 965  * the guilt I feel is crippling.....why do I even bother with those boys around to drive the forum?I hope that helps ....I hope I haven't upset anybody...if so I will stop posting...with a warm feeling in my heart knowing that  COMBATO...LH...their new pal UPS guy....and possibly trusted capping wiz VEGAS JASON as a consultant ....will be here to take care of you boys / drive the forum
  Thanks for the 7 year record of wins and losses.. Very impressive 58%.  Extremely impressive.  Thank you for posting your record. With a sample size that large, your Z score also checks out very high (which is a good thing).  To be sure, I have never paid that much attention to your picks but I have read your posts with interest. No hard feelings from me BA.  You posted what i requested and UPS Driver must have been working with a much smaller sample size.

 

Frankly BA, It's not our fault that Texas took Donnie Little over you in the 1981 recruiting class. Don't get all pissy cause LH sometimes bets on the Horns.

Just kidding man.  All I wanted was a decent look at your won loss record and it looks fantastic and I have no reason to believe you are not telling the truth.

I use a complicated combination of Monte Carlo simulations to play the games and adjust my stuff based on reading the market and also trying to use Bill Connelly S&P+ to fill in the gaps for match ups.

Your style is more global factoring in scheduling spots, common sense narratives, past history, line movement and in depth coaching advantages and a life time of using that subjective data base you carry around in your head.

I will review your picks, run them through my ringer, and if they make sense, I will play them.  Isn't this what posting on this forum is supposed to be anyway?   

 
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Posted: #106

Thanks for the years of your knowledge bro .... Good Luck with the Covers job .... Looking forward to the freebies ... BOL TY !!! 

 
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Posted: #107

 

Small time player ...just a hobby to me ....not a moneymaker 

 

Pretty confident in my plays .....Any feedback on a few of my picks would be appreciated ... 

 

1 Unit $5 

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #108

They won't let me post ... I will pm you ... thx 

 
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Posted: #109

Question for anyone who might have insight around the following question:   In the middle of August, the betting consensus on FIU is heavily one sided to FIU.   Too early for public action and Tulane vs FIU is hardly the stuff of big public line moves on either side.   Yet we get a full 1 point line move on FIU in early August.   BA predicted this move in his analysis but.....would this not be enough to at least suspect some early sharp money on FIU??

Also, be careful using Bill Connelly's S&P numbers to make predictions. 

Even Bill C. himself concedes that his metrics are primarily descriptive and not predictive ( descriptive meaning they tell you what has happened, predictive means they tell you what is most likely to happen in the future)

 
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Posted: #110
who was that said, when the going gets weird, the weird go pro? especially apt these days. you oughta get paid. glad you'll be around here still.
 
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Posted: #111

Why would you pay for picks when he is only going to hit 50%. Now the pressure is on for your customers. I say 9-14 the first 2 weeks. Ba post your plays on Sunday so we all can see how you are losing.

 
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Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by upsdriver:

Why would you pay for picks when he is only going to hit 50%. Now the pressure is on for your customers. I say 9-14 the first 2 weeks. Ba post your plays on Sunday so we all can see how you are losing.

 

What a funny little guy you are.  Now go research some more on your big pick Detroit Lions and have some cocoa.

 
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Posted: #113

Congrats on your opportunity.  Best of luck this season.

 
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Posted: #114

Quote Originally Posted by combato:

Question for anyone who might have insight around the following question:   In the middle of August, the betting consensus on FIU is heavily one sided to FIU.   Too early for public action and Tulane vs FIU is hardly the stuff of big public line moves on either side.   Yet we get a full 1 point line move on FIU in early August.   BA predicted this move in his analysis but.....would this not be enough to at least suspect some early sharp money on FIU?? Also, be careful using Bill Connelly's S&P numbers to make predictions.  Even Bill C. himself concedes that his metrics are primarily descriptive and not predictive ( descriptive meaning they tell you what has happened, predictive means they tell you what is most likely to happen in the future)

 

I think early sharp money is exactly what you're seeing. Personally I think this line favors the wrong team...

 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by upsdriver:

Why would you pay for picks when he is only going to hit 50%. Now the pressure is on for your customers. I say 9-14 the first 2 weeks. Ba post your plays on Sunday so we all can see how you are losing.

Why would you post when nobody cares what you think?
 
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Posted: #116

Quote Originally Posted by upsdriver:

Why would you pay for picks when he is only going to hit 50%. Now the pressure is on for your customers. I say 9-14 the first 2 weeks. Ba post your plays on Sunday so we all can see how you are losing.

 

Hi Driver - It will all come out by the end of the season regarding BA's picks.  Did you see his post that he has it 58% over a 5 year period?  If true, that is really impressive.   It's possible the numbers you posted for BA from last year were just a bad run ffor BA from a small sample size.  Let's see how he does.  Some one on here will buy his plays and let us know how he did each week.

My gut tells me he's about a 55% capper which is plus money over the long term but I am not curious enough to pay for anything.

 
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Posted: #117

What about it BA ? Should I be the official goat / score keeper ....( my dirty little secret ... I paid up ) I won't reveal any of your paid plays until Sunday after all games are done .....Yes or no ?  By the way , I'd love to hit 55% . Your call brother .

 
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Posted: #118

Alright, dammit.  Not sure what to think about this...processing it...an_baby

Not suspicious.  

Doesn't matter.  BA's post are the analysis you can't get anywhere else.  Always hilarious and full of great information.  It's the first place that untold thousands got to get a grip on the opening lines.

 

 
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Posted: #119

BA -  I sent you a PM...an_cheers

 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

who was that said, when the going gets weird, the weird go pro? especially apt these days. you oughta get paid. glad you'll be around here still.

Hunter S. Thompson ha......

I told you knuckleheads I'm done with this thread until next pick....

Back in the 'teams to play' thread in a few days.....determining the right SPOT to play / fade your 'teams of interest'.......I think you'll find is a MUCH better way to spend your time 

AS for others.....like that lying...sniveling coward...butt-plug of a human being UPS man (brown a nice color for you boy) haha
  * maybe consider CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORUM whydontcha

COMBATO ?..........

the last time you did anything here was trying to RUN OFF....the classiest and one of, if not THE most knowledgeable guy here .....WG 
     **  for saying his GOAL / CRITERIA / EXPECTATION was an 80% success rate......damn guy (advanced analytics like 35 years ago BTW)....bets only a few plays/ year LARGE....70 yr old WG just said F'IT.....and left......fine work man !!!.....now you're after me wtf?....  


Tell you what.....why don't YOU and buddy LH (3-4 plays / week / late in betting cycle /  often vs closing line.........all heavy FBS favorites usually..................replace my PRODUCTION the last 7 years? .....since you care SO much......not sure I'll have the time

1)  LINES.....what the line 'should really be'.....by building your OWN numbers.....THEN comparing them to Vegas' #'s.....Sagarins....Bill C's if necessary.....to give the boys here an OBJECTIVE #......we need these by SUNDAY morning....Friday maybe 5-6X / yr........
  note:  here's the catch.....they also need to be with 2-3 points for most every game.....about half on the money.....maybe 2-3X a year basically identical to openers.....as if they copied YOURS
  >> also you need to do this for EVERY GAME PLAYED

2)  THEN......we need about 10-15 picks / week.....about 225 / yr including bowls.....your AVERAGE should be about 58%
  * for one unit bowls you need to average about 74%....(15/yr or so)


3)  After 6-7 years or so.....we will compare notes

IF you do this.....would I bother to CRITICIZE YOU ?
  note:   hold on lemme check my drawers ha.....






Nope still a MAN.....not a chick......course not............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #121

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

who was that said, when the going gets weird, the weird go pro? especially apt these days. you oughta get paid. glad you'll be around here still.
Hunter S. Thompson ha......I told you knuckleheads I'm done with this thread until next pick....Back in the 'teams to play' thread in a few days.....determining the right SPOT to play / fade your 'teams of interest'.......I think you'll find is a MUCH better way to spend your time AS for others.....like that lying...sniveling coward...butt-plug of a human being UPS man (brown a nice color for you boy) haha  * maybe consider CONTRIBUTING TO THE FORUM whydontchaCOMBATO ?..........the last time you did anything here was trying to RUN OFF....the classiest and one of, if not THE most knowledgeable guy here .....WG      **  for saying his GOAL / CRITERIA / EXPECTATION was an 80% success rate......damn guy (advanced analytics like 35 years ago BTW)....bets only a few plays/ year LARGE....70 yr old WG just said F'IT.....and left......fine work man !!!.....now you're after me wtf?....  Tell you what.....why don't YOU and buddy LH (3-4 plays / week / late in betting cycle /  often vs closing line.........all heavy FBS favorites usually..................replace my PRODUCTION the last 7 years? .....since you care SO much......not sure I'll have the time1)  LINES.....what the line 'should really be'.....by building your OWN numbers.....THEN comparing them to Vegas' #'s.....Sagarins....Bill C's if necessary.....to give the boys here an OBJECTIVE #......we need these by SUNDAY morning....Friday maybe 5-6X / yr........  note:  here's the catch.....they also need to be with 2-3 points for most every game.....about half on the money.....maybe 2-3X a year basically identical to openers.....as if they copied YOURS  >> also you need to do this for EVERY GAME PLAYED2)  THEN......we need about 10-15 picks / week.....about 225 / yr including bowls.....your AVERAGE should be about 58%  * for one unit bowls you need to average about 74%....(15/yr or so)3)  After 6-7 years or so.....we will compare notesIF you do this.....would I bother to CRITICIZE YOU ?  note:   hold on lemme check my drawers ha.....Nope still a MAN.....not a chick......course not............[/Qu

 

Nobody's "after you" BA.  I am withholding my judgment on your ability until AFTER your picks are made this season.  

 
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Posted: #122

So for your 9* star play on the legends picks how does that compare to your 1 unit bet? Is 1 unit 5* star or 1* star? So if I were to wager $50 on the 1 unit play on Rutgers would I wager $450 on the 9 star play? It’s a little confusing just trying to figure out bet sizes and unit sizes.

 

all the best this year!

 

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:

You use to make plays as “large,” “small,” etc. what are these plays?  Also, what will your format be if paying for picks (e.g. unit sizing)?
ya' know....can't believe I just (recently) figured out your (genius) handle...........good question.....since technically 'free plays'  < with apologies....you can of course regard them pretty much as smaller (< 1 unit) playsBUT...each week I will probably throw in at least a one unit or better play tho ....here Rutgers at 14/14' I consider 1 unit or better.....Tulane maybe .75 > 1 unit....................look at it this way.....no way in hell I would post a 'free pick' that I didn't like a lot

 
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Posted: #123

BA - Its different now...You are not just some anonymous grumpy poster on Covers.com anymore...You will be judged by the accuracy of your picks, and folks will now hold you accountable.    As far as COMBATO, me and others, we can say whatever we want...So, I will be watching you.   So attack me if you want.   Urban and few others will defend you.   But, if you are not transparent with this forum, you will be called out...So, I figure its a win win win...You do your thing.   We will tail and/or purchase if we want.  If you are consistently good, you and Covers and your followers will be rewarded.   If you are not, you will be quickly marginalized, and that legendary status that you have worked so hard to develop will be tarnished.  So in the words  of Al Davis..."Just Win Baby"...

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #124
BA , My Friend , you owe your best effort to those who are going
to pay for your services , and you have the honor and integrity to
provide that for them . The key to this is to not let the jealous and
dysfunctional that pervade this Forum to cause you to lose focus.

A few helpful tips for you  as you embark on this endeavour :

1. The better your record is , the more likely your detractors will be
   to not to acknowledge it or respect it. Kinda perverse isn't it

         Ignore them and let your record speak for itself

2. In trying to share information with others that may be helpful to
   them in improving their skills , you will get one of three possible
   responses.

a, Those who truly desire to improve their skills will learn and also
    thank you for taking the time to share.

b. Those who already " know it all " will ignore you , refuse to learn
    from it and not respond to you.

c. Those who hope you fail at this so they can feel better about
    their own lack of knowledge and ability at capping CFB.
    You cannot help anyone in this group with your skills and ability.

Understanding this , should help maintain your focus as you go
forward with this. For me , in my 37 years of capping CFB , I was
able to keep focused on the task at hand by constantly trying to
improve my skill and accuracy level , always trying to do better at
this than I did the year before. You would be amazed at how much
improvement you can achieve in 37 years using that philosophy
and never " being content " with the level dictated by latest results.

That focus does a lot to help tune out the " noise "

Blessings and Good Luck to you , my Friend      
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

BA - Its different now...You are not just some anonymous grumpy poster on Covers.com anymore...You will be judged by the accuracy of your picks, and folks will now hold you accountable.    As far as COMBATO, me and others, we can say whatever we want...So, I will be watching you.   So attack me if you want.   Urban and few others will defend you.   But, if you are not transparent with this forum, you will be called out...So, I figure its a win win win...You do your thing.   We will tail and/or purchase if we want.  If you are consistently good, you and Covers and your followers will be rewarded.   If you are not, you will be quickly marginalized, and that legendary status that you have worked so hard to develop will be tarnished.  So in the words  of Al Davis..."Just Win Baby"...


He’s always been transparent, he is Covers football & he’s always been a huge asset to this forum

He’s never been dishonest & he will be a legend whether he wins this year or not 

I like you LH but couldn’t disagree more, I don’t know who the other guy in this conversation is so I won’t address him

nobody has ever bothered BA & he’s provided more info to this forum over the years than anyone, period , tons of insane info we all use, he puts more time in than anyone 

now he’s being somewhat challenged , that’s just silly , he’s beyond proven, what happens going forward won’t change that 


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