Week 1 idea

I don’t think Coach Moore is elite.   After last season I don’t see Michigan as an elite offense. I don’t see the motivation to whip them with a ranked road game ahead.  

U of M has a poor history in big lined games

Michigan has a poor history with a road game ahead and laying more than-17.  

 I’m trying to find a line(s) and a weak team because of history and past results.  This is an opportunity.  Back to back lines over +14 in 2025 

4 times in the last 5 games in 2024 they were lined +14 or more. Covered 3 of 4 going 2-2.  The fact that Michigan’s was even lined once at +14 is telling.  4 times in last 5 games is a joke.  They are or should be in regression after a great run and NFL Coach has left.  If they have flipped into a championship type of team in the offseason I will lose.  

 8-5 in 2024.  No lines less than -22 last year.  Beat Arky State by 10 points. Lined  -3 to a crap Mich State team.  

After last year I am certain this team is in regression.  Until I see something different I’m not betting with them. There lines were very doable last season and they kept missing that’s why when they played solid teams the were lined +14 

I’m not buying a blowout this season.  No chance.  I am firm on this.  Next week will be a dog at Oklahoma and if this is a bad game they could be +14 again.  I doubt it more like +7.

if I’m wrong I’m wrong,  I’m won’t be wrong.  

I live and love Michigan, I love making money. 

Most of the words in your post refer to how bad the Lobos look on paper.  

not many, if any, about Michigan other than a new OC and Freshman QB.  

I don’t know how Michigan’s ended up beating Ohio state and Alabama to close 2024 but Ohio State had the bracket ahead of them.  Ohio State only scored 10 points.  That’s an Ohio state issue not a Michigan dominance.  Even in Michigan Championship seasons Ohio state scores.  Alabama ? It’s not like they were elite last season either. They had their issues and meandered through their season.  

I got a strong feeling, even with all the New Mexico issues and good points you made about them.   This one probably will  be tough to watch.  Boring and dull  ball game. 

Ok, ok, never said you were wrong, just gave it an "I don't know"

From 247sports; Michigan was way down near the bottom of this list of power conference teams with most returning starters a year ago with just five between offense and defense. Now, the Wolverines have a plethora of experience back, even with a handful of top NFL Draft prospects departing. 

I'm not seeing regression and the schedule is much easier. 

What I am saying is although this is an obvious spot for letdown and look ahead, Lobos roster concerns me.

GL 

Just move on, this isnt peaceful.  I appreciate you though

Sorry if I offended you, like your thread. 

"I don’t know how Michigan’s ended up beating Ohio state and Alabama to close 2024 but Ohio State had the bracket ahead of them.  Ohio State only scored 10 points.  That’s an Ohio state issue not a Michigan dominance"

This is what I saw; Michigan held Northwestern to 10 yards rushing and crushed them. Next game with Buckeyes 77 yds rushing allowed, Bama 66 total yds rushing. Not sure what Martindale found that worked but it sure did. Yet Mason Graham is gone now and he was a beast on D-line so the question is will the D keep dominating like the last three?

@UNIMAN

 I respect you because you’re concise and elite posts and results.  So when you’re opposing me it makes an impact. 

I have holes in my game because others are much much better at watching the game and being able to decipher exactly what’s happening.  Then as you just stated brake down what you saw and make a profound judgement.  

I respect you because you’re mostly all about Big10 and Michigan and successful.  

I think it was you in 2023 when I bet Hawaii + over Michigan and you made a statement of no don’t ?  I relented and even came back and gave you props and are crow after your win.  

well your here so I give you props for sticking up for Michigan again but do t sway me off this game because of the other teams problems.  

Michigan is not in 2022 or 202.  I  see them get cheap again hiring an unknown coach (to me) while other programs are elevating. 
My statement and bet is about Michigan. 

when Zmichigsn is elite with a well coached team you were right don’t bet against them against a cream puff 

This Michigan team has issues you can’t argue that. It’s on paper unless they make a new story.  
No matter who they play in the preseason in these 5 td games unless Michigan is elite they have a tendency not to elevate over 5 td lines.  It’s just not their thing until they prove otherwise.  

Teams and top 25 ranked teams all have tendencies and I try to find holes and expose them 

They have tendencies and so do the lines makers.  

my focus is beating the lines and past lines and scores and covers influences lines.  

I know I am running in here but let me finish making a point of what I am doing 

casino gambling like cards or roulette.  In this case I’ll run with roulette.  

It’s not standard in sports to have a roulette wheel with 36 number and 2 zeros on every line.  Door call odds are adjusted weekly as the odds maker adjust to public perception 

all the casino games are fixed.  You spread know the wheel won’t change it’s 36+2 numbers.  

sports get adjusted and the data I use exposes that.  Elite patient concise sports bettors that play one or 2 games a week like yourself are going to exceed what I do in a lot of cases.  

on the other hand I still do what I do and win money.  

so yea you’re great a mind I respect your words and when you post you’re going to sound more concise and on point.  What I do is bring something different 

Anyways thanks for reading 

M-GO BLUE

Michigan, Texas Georgia Alabama, all the big boys have tendencies and meanderings.  
I spend most of my time finding about their successes and failures based upon lines and data.

The line is a focus because a person or group of people are trying to find a fair line that doesn’t expose a books profits. They don’t over inflate because many sharp big betters will kill em.  Yet in Vegas, every Saturday and Sunday people line up early in the morning to get all their parlays in.  It’s insanity. 

Im not a football expert but I understand betting and perception. 

what happens lasted year from a football perspective a little less of an impact than on what bettors remember.  They remember Michigan closed out 2024 as an elite team and they are not.  They were lined by smart people as +14 in big games too many times because they are not elite.  To start the year now they are being lined as a top 20 team.  They didn’t show that u til they beat 2 teams last season and those lines weren’t supposed to be close.  

This New Mexico game is certainly scary as it appears but -35 looks to me like the lines maker is exposing a well known public Michigan team and the majority can’t bet New Mexico. 

I have the book side in what looks to be a mediocre season for an elite team in what could be a few extra points because of how they finished last season.  

as far as me and you.  Nothing but respect. What you put on paper here is proof. 

rock on 

Sports book odds are adjusted weekly as the odds maker adjust to public perception.

typo and  

I sound super simpleton but the point is more about roulette being straight up odds. 

When any why I bet a lot of games and bet against an impact team like an army and Indiana last season .? 

Done  people see me doing this and are appalled ?  

Zket me as this to you before I begin.  How may of these excellent teams are there in a season?  How many of these keep dominating continuously and repeatedly without meandering? 

Now what I learned is it’s dangerous to fade a team that comes out of nowhere that didn’t have a great season the year before. 

Missouri kinda did that in 2023 and 2024.  Here is the thing about this.  When these teams lose the elite talent it takes time for the lines to adjust back to where they were before elevation.  

Michigan qualified last season Georgia struggled covering too. Coastal Carolina App state and Louisiana Lafayette all went through cover excellence.  The lines increased and couldn’t maintain their elite talent levels. 

This season ? 

Alabama Michigan Notre Dame Ohio State Missouri Colorado are  all possible candidates to regress and I have more searching to do.  

The big 12 BYU ,Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado. 

I won’t speak on Colorado too much.  People are psycho about them. They are getting more roster balance but losing the top guns and those big plays might set them back.  I think their schedule is more difficult so if they are favorites I’m certainly looking to fade.  Lot of dog lines last season and proof be told they won and covered because of the qb and WR talent.  Its all knew this year.  Lines are important. 

Missouri too nice balanced qb controlled the game and kept and protected the ball.  Managed the game to give the opponents less opportunities.  

Cant wait 

Can't wait either! 56.5

And I've said this a hundred times on Covers, my Michigan bets always seem to be my worse plays. So go with what you think! 

For me it works like this; My early preception is Michigan likely to cover this 1st game. A respected capper posts the opposite. So I post mainly to get more info why your going that way and add your reasonings to mine. You make good points, this new OC??? Guy lasts about 2 yrs at one place and moves on. Elite?, no not top 5 for sure. 

I’m taking some of those teams to go under their team total but I will definitely take a few times out but I’m not sure yet. I’ve been studying Phil Steele magazine and a lot of those teams are dumpster fire. Thanks for the info it all makes sense ????????????????

Not sure where that 56.5 came from?????? Had dogs on my lap, I'll blame them.

From my studies bowl games impact week 1 and or 2 and in some cases all season. 

In Michigans case I used being a multiple +14 point dog as my clue in.  The problem here is: 

my original theory <-23 point lines are against bad teams.  Bad teams don’t cover because they don’t score.  Will that impact Michigan. That’s the question.  Michigan will be working on things.  I don’t see the continuity of a 60-0 game it’s more a 40 or less point game. So according to what I’m looking for in post one :  how many does Michigan score and the same for New Mexico. 
On that note isolate this as Michigan has an elite defense in most seasons and in most season no matter how good or bad Bew Mexicos offense is they are not scoring >10 now they can but I can’t see it.  

really my whole argument  is Michigan close to 35 and less. They had an issue scoring last season and are starting out ready to fire? They could but that’s brings in Oklahoma the following week. P

New Mexico is a possible team Michigan blows away.  If they do bigger opportunities arise.  

week 1 are not the best plays especially in this case.  Of course I want a better team to bet on than New Mexico. 

reasons against Michigan 

Oklahoma on deck 

last season offensively not up to usual standards 

finished off last season great 

negative big dog lines is weakness in power ratings.  

Successful Dog wins as the last thing most remember elevates their ratings and regression off that. 

Let’s see if it’s 63-0 or closer to 31-0 both are possible the way i see it

Thank you everyone for the good communication. 

Michigan is 12-24 ATS when they are -31 or higher

since and after 2016 they are 2-8 ATS 

since and after 2016 in weeks 1 and or 2. 0-5 ATS 

Not many results to know how bad those 5 teams were compared to New Mexico.

ptevious opponents:

Cincy 2017

Mid Tenn 2019

Hawaii 2022

East  Carolina 2023

UNLV 2023

failed to cover any of them. 

@czar2k4ever

@UNIMAN

 Thx for the communication.  My first impression was incorrect.  You brought clarity.  

To fully summarize the best bet against Michigan will be on Oklahoma if Michigan  covers against New Mexico.  The data suggests a fade of Michigan in both games.  

Checking here on Covers the Wolv's covered both week 1 and week 2 in 2016 as a fav >-31. Also covered week 1 in 2022 as -31. 

But I get your point(s).

Line <-31 not including so it’s depending on the line they count. 

t:team=MICH and week<3 and line<-31 and season>2016 

if I could send photos here I would but yea you get my point.  The data makes a bet on Michigan horrible but it’s how much does michigan score 

I see 0-5 or 0-5-1 

I want them to cover this I’ll lose but my data will heavily be against them the next week and I doubt with what Michigan has going on Oklahoma will be a big problem. 

Teams that finished strong in 2024. 

qualifications :  had to play in at least a bowl game and covered in the bowl game 

Ended 2024 with no cover fails and if a push is involved it’s only one push.  If a push is involved I counted it as a cover.  These team all covered their last 5 games of the season and pushes are counted as wins 

Not dame and a few exception will be listed with reasons and records.  All records are ats including the bowl game. 

AZ state 7-0

UTSA 5-0 

Florida 9-1      I added the games before their ats loss because 9-1 is incredible.  Usually underlined team and that will be corrected the following season 

Minny 8-1 

Not Dame  10-2 

Mizzu 5-0

TCU 5-0 

OH ST  covered all bracket games 

other possible regression teams 

MARSHALL 5-0 and  only 1 or 2 other ats failures. Incredible season.  Now it seems they have roster departures 

Baylor didn’t make the list above because of a bowl failure.  I like Baylor week 1 but after they beat Auburn they will have more difficult lines than 2024 

Jansas and Air Force finished strong because the start was very poor 

Boston college and Duke failed the last game or bowl but before that were awesome 

Service academies that are dogs in their games and after the 2015 season 

Army 25-18 ATS

AIR FORCE 17-10-2 

NAVY 34-25-3 

MARINES 0-0 

run the ball, control the clock and limit the opponent scoring output. All one has to do to win  big big money is wait for these teams.  Hammer the plays and cash out. 

p:F and pp:F and ppp:F and 5>ats streak>-2 and rank<26 and p:rank<26 and week<8 and o:ats streak<2 and o:rank=None and -5>line>-17 and season>2009 and o:streak>-2