Week 1 idea

Week=1 and rank<26 and o:division=FBS and line<-23 and very well documented strong ats favorite winners.  Well guess why?  There opponents won’t score a lot.  

so to take advantage of these take the favorites to cover and same game parlay their opponents team total under. 

week 1 :

Penn st vs Nevada

Georgia vs Marshall

Indiana vs OLDD

Miss vs Georgia St

i looked at other sports and the odds should be at least +150

at a record of 1-3 on these, is only -50 and 2-2 is +100,  assuming the odds are +150 

Penn st is -45 so if they cover they should limit points.  I actually think Nevada team total under will be good. 

Indy is -23 so that is iffy

Michigan-35 keep an eye on.  According to cbs site rankings U of M ranked 32 

Georgia -39

Miss -37 

WEEK 2 :

MSST

Nice info

week=2 and HF and rank<10 and ats streak>0 and o:division=FBS and po:division=FBS and total>47 and ou streak<2 and p:points<77 and line>=-35

week=2 and the top 10 team won and covered the week 1 contest.  The top 10 favorite is playing another FBS team. 

dogs are 17-5 in all season and on a 12-2 ats run 

rank<10 and week=2 and ats streak>0 and season>2014 and p:F and on:site!=neutral and oppS(W)<12 and tppS(W)<14 and o:division=FBS and line>=-35

@spottie2935

 Good stuff brotha … have a great summer 

F and H and season>2011 and rank<7 and ou streak=1 and week<13 and p:ou margin>2 and o:division=FBS

F and H and season>2011 and rank<7 and ou streak=3 and week<13 and p:ou margin>2 and o:division=FBS

Spottie - I like the technical angle and you know I love favorites...;)

Do you have any concerns about 3 of the 4 teams you listed integrating new quarterbacks in week 1 covering such collassal spreads? ...or would that be already factored by the books in the spread...Sure, these are talent and coaching mismatches...Marshall is a ClusterF***, Cignetti likes to run it up on an old D2 foe from his JMU days, as does Kiffen, and Smart not so much...But, should one consider factoring in a new QB in otherwise sound analysis early in the season?  Penn State should average 45 plus a game...Nevada almost beat SMU in Reno last season in week 0...  

week 1 :

Penn st vs Nevada

Georgia vs Marshall

Indiana vs OLDD

Miss vs Georgia St

Thanks for the post.  I wish you a successful college football season.

@LonghornHoosier

 I said all of the info I have in post one.  

the “ Marc Lawrence “based data supports the plays and lines.  It all boils down to bet what you know and eliminate teams that you feel this doesn’t pertain to.  Play all, some, or none.  

My point of this is big lined home favorites have to limit scoring to cover and late back doors have to be closed. 

I would only consider laying over 5 tds if odds were north of even and with a lot of books changing to SGP’s had me intrigued.  Otherwise waiting until the last possession of the 4th qtr to see if a bottom feeder team back door me with a -110 line?  Not interested in that torture.  

some year the data will be deadly accurate some years, tank 

The problem for this set of plays it’s only week 1 and have to wait until next season to rebound if it’s a loser.  

aldo I haven’t discovered if SGP’s will be offered on some of the big lined games like Penn St and Georgia.  Probably Indiana  but they usually regress and were exposed at the end of 2024 and I don’t consider them in there elite category. I would toss them out. Same like Ole Miss.  when’s the last time they had a big time D.  Maybe good but they never reach where the big boys end up. 

im just looking for opportunities before week 6.  Have you seen. Week 2 schedule?  There’s not much there.  A lot of teams really don’t want kisses now.  It’s not even about qualifications yo make the bracket it’s a seeding issue as well. 

A lot of this is adjustment and finding winning avenues as CFB changes. 

week 1-5 and after 12 data is more difficult.  

I have data on favorites all season too but I don’t want a conversation with you weekly.  It’s an oil and water thing with you because you’re so disrespectful. I focus on my hard efforts I don’t want or need a dysfunctional back and forth with anyone here.  

One week to cover all the past college scores and enter data then to the NFL Sunday.  

I’ll stick to dogs. they can pay better and usually the back door is money because the books added a few points to the line.  

I’ll give one of mine is fade Michigan, my team! 

their last 2 games to close out 2024 2 big dog wins. You don’t think last year carries over ?  That’s fine.

 I know it has a big impact on some cases. The books use public perception against the favorites even in week 1 in fact even more so in some isolated cases.  How the heck do they line Michigan and Bew Nexico properly after Michigan beat Ohio State and Alabama but of those lines north of 14 points 

they will certainly add points to this line and guess what ?  Michigan won’t be the Michigan of 2022 or 2023 when they were in the final 4 and the champs the year after.  They might play defense like those teams but last year scoring was a problem.  

Michigan may not even score 35 

34-3 final something like that 

In preseason games like this the first qtr won’t be an air raid attack the way I see it. 

nope this first qtr will fly by quickly like 7-0 or 10-0. 24-0 half time and quit in the 2nd half. 

week 1 if I betting big lines it’s Penn St and Georgia but Georgia was vey bad at destroying big lines last season.  

week 1 big favorites are nice opportunities because the crap team offense has no continuity and are just a mess.  That gives the super power ranked team  to get more plays and find ways to feed their stars the stats.  They need to get their NIL $$$.

this is a work in progress 

Today I was looking at non power 5 conferences do in week 1 when the favorites were greater( from -1 to -6.5 ) ats

the dogs  did well. The problem with that is line the moves. Lines of -1 to -7 are supposed to be close and the dog has an opportunity.  Hey UMass you feeling it this season as a week one small chalk? A team that closed out last season very strong for them. Now they chalk?  come on even a small line move probably wont matter. 

Just a few hints on how my thought process works but of course I’m keeping my secrets 

week 1 some unders already played.  Those totals almost always  move down and against me. I don’t need to wait to bet those.  I have the data from last season just sitting there. It’s all documented. 

@JJWoods

 Always great to see you brother let’s have a tremendous season. 

Don’t  be shocked if I don’t post much.  I may give it a rest.  At least until week 6 that’s when my data is on point. 

Give me a good ole crap team that isn’t a favorite every week that pops up as a favorite this week.  They are also not playing a team that can’t score and rarely wins.  

Middle team vs middle team and the in season meanderings that usually take place.  UNLV I was against a few time I think.  Colorado was a $$$ for me the last 2 seasons.  Vandy and Mizzu (when they were not laying like a top 10 team) 

How about fading Georgia since their 65-7 championship romp over TCU? talk about taking a team away from bettors.  9-18 ats since and 2024 was a big part of all those losses.  

Kets see how the cash cow Notre Dane goes this season.  

Remember those 2024 lines? After a loss to Niu? Yes -7 to Purdue !  Yeah Purdue that only won one game vs Indy state in week 1 

Those simpleton lines will be gone.  

NOTD 29-11 ats last 40 games ?  Yet make the championship with a preseason loss to NIU 

@spottie2935

Speaking about Michigan :

In preseason games like this the vs New Mexico, first qtr won’t be an air raid attack the way I see it. 

nope this first qtr will fly by quickly like 7-0 or 10-0. 24-0 half time and quit in the 2nd half. 

I hate typing on my phone a lot if improper word corrections 

rank<7 and HF and ats streak<-1 and week>4 and C and season>2015 and t:losses=0

Any team ranked 1 thru 6 that failed to cover in 2 games in a row after week 4 this week is a conference game since and including 2016 and our home favorite ranked team has no losses 

What top ranked good teams do? 

limit opponents points.  

season>2013 and o:losses<4 and rank<12 and HF and 10>week>1 and o:division=FBS

 not good at covering home favorite spreads

Not good at going over totals

that’s right these highly ranked teams are 58.4% likely to hold their opponents so that the game has a very strong Chance to remain under.  Overs take both teams to score points usually and big home favorites don’t score enough points to cover their overlined spread.  After all the books make it difficult to beat them?  
put a highly ranked team on TV and inflate the line.  Bet favorites and lose your money bet over lose more. 

quality teams are high quality because of the studs in defense.  Not only that but betting unders eliminates the potential of a qb injurys and offensive turnovers.  

the highest ROI when betting unders in games with highly ranked teams is when their opponents are only in short ou streaks 

Last season results 

o:losses<4 and rank<12 and HF and 10>week>1 and o:division=FBS and 2>o:ou streak>-2 and season=2024

Season = 2024 

since 2013 

That’s right over 60% these strong  teams have strong tendencies not to score enough points to leap over their lined totals and also limit their opponents.  Football is about the line of scrimmage, scoring points is secondary to limiting opponents opportunities.  Unders and fogs cover and make money. 

Week=1 

so we start and last season is different that the opening game of the new season.  Now maybe the new team that tried to improve last season terrible results.  Maybe they excelled I. The transfer portal.  Some of this data is questionable here now and going forward. 

on the flip side to this is a to z and all position roster improvements and depth takes time.  

Week one, they say, defenses are ahead of offenses.  

Week 1 Overs

week=1 and F and H and season>2017 and rank=None and tpS(W)<4 and line<-3

these bad teams as home favorites playing any division team(FCS included) don’t elevate.  These coaches are trying to build week 1 momentum and trying to get a home favorites win in a game they should win.  They are not trying to smash the total over.  Bad teams just need wins and are t good enough to elevate the totals consistently to go over.  Under is over 65%.  

week=2 and ou streak>0 and tpS(W)<9 and season>2017 and o:division=FBS and division=FBS and total>55 and H

week =2 in an all FBS matchup and in a home game so the results are not duplicates last week the home teams game went over and the home team didn’t have 9 season wins the year before.  The total is 55.5 or more. 

not many results but when it happens is strong ROI

I don't know.......?

Have you looked at Lobos projected starters? I see 15 of 22 are transfers and not much there. To me the biggest threat is Abraham Williams at cornerback and not for his defense rather he was an outstanding kick returner at Weber State. Whole secondary could be transfers. QB #1and #2 no FBS experience. 

See it this way;

Pro- Look ahead Sooners on deck. No need to open Mich new OC's playbook. Good chance freshman QB for wolv's. New coach for Lobos appears to have functionally sound teams in past. Turned Idaho around 1st yr. Mich WR room not experienced. Under Eck, Idaho gave Ducks a game in last year's opener.

Con-Looks like last years top Lobo players hit the portal. Much of projected starters with any exp are Weber St, Stephen F. Austin type transfers. Projected Lobos QB missed spring and has played in one game at Idaho. Report of spring Lobo scrimmage said play was sloppy, defense dominated 2nd string QB. 

Could be Wolv's just walk through this with vanilla run game. 

Could be Wolv's 2nd and 3rd strings keep scoring 2nd half.