TD 2025 CFB

It stings to not have that absolute steamrolling by Texas Tech count, but overall a very good day for both of us!

Thanks for posting here and on Action

Thanks guys, I figured it out real late last night that the second half was shortened.  Why the box scores lists Time of Possession for a total of 60 minutes is what confused me at first.  I don’t get that, but anyway.

Weird couple days, but it went very well overall for sure.  More on that later.

@TD21

 DK actually paid me today after initially only refunding my bet. I tailed quite a few plays of yours and I really look forward to seeing your posts every week. Thanks for taking the time to share your picks.

@BetsandBrewskis

Congrats on getting your bet graded as a win.  

I put in several Week 2 openers today.  No time to post, but check the app.  It’s just faster for me to click the play.  It’s not exact for what I have but close enough to see what i like.

What app?

@champlow007

I've been trying out the Action Network's app to track results.  It's quick to just click on my end and fairly close to real time when my bet actually goes in.  There is some delay for true openers showing up, but it's very good overall.  And there are some sharp guys on there to follow.  I also enjoy their podcasts. 

I should have a little more time today to post here.  Yesterday was getting to the rest of the family with too much football for me.  

Big card, probably should tap the breaks as Week 1 to Week 2 is when a lot of teams show their most incremental improvement.

WEEK 2: Locked in yesterday FWIW:

Rutgers -13.5 -110 (1u) & -15.5 -110 (1u),...... currently -14 (offshore) & -14.5, guess I coulda/shoulda waited on that first -15.5.  Dead number at -14.5, so wait for -14 if you don't have access to it, if it moves to -15 who cares.  Technically going against my #s here with a one game sample size, but the way I operate with PR #s is to intentionally overreact to the results and just know that as I evaluate the next game.  Rutgers HC wants to pull away in these non-league games.  Last week up 31-17 at halftime against Ohio U., it looked like they were in position to pull away, but they couldn't get stops in the 3rd qtr.  I think vs. Miami (OH) they are more likely to get those stops and pull away.  Miami (OH) won't score near as much as OU did last week with a young O-Line and their style of play, especially in non-league games.  I'm going from memory and not fact checking this, but pretty sure HC Martin tends to focus on MAC games over non-conference.

West Virginia -3 -110 (1u) & -3.5 -110 (0.5u)  (1.5u overall)......., currently -2.5, but as I type that FD moves from -2.5 to -3.5.  Most other shops still -3.  We'll see how much it moves, I may buyout or buyback a little on the -3.5 if I get the opportunity.  Rich Rod invented the zone read QB run offense, I just figured he also knows how to stop it somewhat (Parker Navarro is OU's offense).

North Texas -6.5 -110 (0.5u) & -9.5 (1u).... (1.5u overall)...... opener long gone, but play to -10.  -9.5 available now.

Illinois -2.5 -110 (0.5u) & -3 -110 (0.5u) (1u overall)

Connecticut +8.5 -110 (1u) ..... this one on the move obviously.  I actually grabbed the 8.5 before a 9.5 popped, but couldn't buy out.  Good with it.  Now seeing a couple of juiced -7s, and some -6.5.  Still on the move it appears.  Be smart on the key numbers.

Indiana -33.5 -110 (1u)..... Cignetti mad that he didn't cover last week vs. ODU, we'll see how he plays this.  I think he runs it up on any team if/when he can.  Not sure if we'll see -35 again, -35.5 currently.

CMU / Pitt Under 55 -110 (1u) ...... initially took U53.5, but was able to cash out when this # popped offshore.  Didn't last long.  Still like Under now.  CMU with Army coach will try to play ball control and Narduzzi should embrace the rock fight type game as well.

San Jose State +37.5 -105 (1u)  ..... they're not that bad, I'd take anything +35 or better.  I make it -30.7.

BGSU / Cincinnati Under 50.5 -115 (1u)  ..... both teams Under in Week 1.  In his first season as HC at BG, I would look at Eddie George Unders until proven wrong.  He'll be very ball control on offense.

Miami (OH) / Rutgers Under 48.5 -110 (1u)  .... see above, I don't think Miami (OH) does their part to go over.  But Schiano will try.

(CONT.) - character limit I guess

Houston -13.5 -118 (0.9u) ..... seeing -12.5 now, so I missed on this number.  Like Houston under 2 TDs.  Rice is a good story with the new HC and upset win, but just high on Houston this year compared to the market in their HC's 2nd year.

Tulsa -1.5 -110 (0.5u) & -2.5 -110 (0.25u)  ...... Tulsa should be improved with new HC Lamb, but they beat a depleted ACU offense with key transfers out.  NMSU didn't do much on offense vs. Bryant.  Tulsa seems like better team to me, but we shall see ("that's why they play the games").

CMU +21.5 -110 (0.75u) .... same reasons as above on this game's total.  Correlated parlay too maybe something to consider here.

Troy +33.5 -110 (0.75u)  .... seemed like too many points for a Clemson team that couldn't run the ball and doesn't really have a solid RB figured out yet.  And Troy figured it out on offense in the 4th qtr.  Caught up on #s since I locked this in.  Make it more like -27, so my feel on the opener aligns with my numbers.

Akron +35.5 -110 (0.5u)

Iowa / Iowa State Under 44.5 -110 (0.5u)

Delaware / Colorado Under 49.5 -110 (0.5u)  ..... thinking CU Unders with their adjustment in style on offense this year until proven otherwise.  Delaware will play hard I think.

Auburn -41.5 -110 (0.5u) ..... this number popped very very briefly only.  I listed -43.5 in the App.  Play to -44.5/-45 I would say.  They're not going to be able to help it to score on BSU.  Mike U. is a great guy, but unfortunately after week 1 results, have to fade them here.  It's a year 0 situation I think.

South Alabama +10.5 -110 (0.25u) ..... just felt like a big number at home.  USA run D maybe a little concerning after Week 1 results, but I think it's inflated slightly due to the Tulane/NU score.  5-0 turnover battle there.  Just ran numbers, arrived at -9.2 for now, so feel not too bad.  Small play.

Thanks, TD, good stuff.

@gcowboy

   Good Luck to you moving forward!

Forgot a Lookahead Line that I took over the summer, this was actually available in the last few days so put it in the app then.  Will have to keep an eye on this line, if it comes back down at all, still might recommend OU. 

And cleaning up the formatting on the Tulsa play.  

Houston -13.5 -118 (0.9u) ..... seeing -12.5 now, so I missed on this number.  Like Houston under 2 TDs.  Rice is a good story with the new HC and upset win, but just high on Houston this year compared to the market in their HC's 2nd year.

Tulsa -1.5 -110 (0.5u) & -2.5 -110 (0.25u)  ...... Tulsa should be improved with new HC Lamb, but they beat a depleted ACU offense with key transfers out.  NMSU didn't do much on offense vs. Bryant.  Tulsa seems like better team to me, but we shall see ("that's why they play the games").

CMU +21.5 -110 (0.75u) .... same reasons as above on this game's total.  Correlated parlay too maybe something to consider here.

Troy +33.5 -110 (0.75u)  .... seemed like too many points for a Clemson team that couldn't run the ball and doesn't really have a solid RB figured out yet.  And Troy figured it out on offense in the 4th qtr.  Caught up on #s since I locked this in.  Make it more like -27, so my feel on the opener aligns with my numbers.

Akron +35.5 -110 (0.5u)

Iowa / Iowa State Under 44.5 -110 (0.5u)

Delaware / Colorado Under 49.5 -110 (0.5u)  ..... thinking CU Unders with their adjustment in style on offense this year until proven otherwise.  Delaware will play hard I think.

Auburn -41.5 -110 (0.5u) ..... this number popped very very briefly only.  I listed -43.5 in the App.  Play to -44.5/-45 I would say.  They're not going to be able to help it to score on BSU.  Mike U. is a great guy, but unfortunately after week 1 results, have to fade them here.  It's a year 0 situation I think.

Oklahoma -2.5 -110 (0.5u) vs. Michigan .... edited and updated the post here.

South Alabama +10.5 -110 (0.25u) ..... just felt like a big number at home.  USA run D maybe a little concerning after Week 1 results, but I think it's inflated slightly due to the Tulane/NU score.  5-0 turnover battle there.  Just ran numbers, arrived at -9.2 for now, so feel not too bad.  Small play.

TD 

Took a couple lookahead lines this morning:

Georgia -6.5 -115 at Tennessee (0.4u)

Florida +4.5 -105 at Miami (1.3u)

WEEK 2 College Extra & FCS: 

Bucknell -6.5 -110 (2u)

Boise State -24.5 -115 (1.4u)

Stephen F. Austin -2.5 -115 (1u)

Boise State / Eastern Washington Over 54.5 -110 (0.75u)

@TD21

 I saw that Boise play early this morning. If you made the bet on FD, I hit that line maybe 20 mins before you did.

@Laroja

Great work!  And I’m chuckling a little bit about the timing because I had it locked in and in the app, then went back to bed.  Posted here about an hour later when I got up for good.

EWU defense is pretty bad IMO.

Bumped play to 2u.

FWIW, here is everything I've locked in over the last 18.5 hours.  Should have a couple more in the morning.

WEEK 2 College Extra & FCS: 

Boise State -24.5 -115 (2u)  WIN

Boise State / Eastern Washington Over 54.5 -110 (0.75u)  WIN

EWU +36.5 -110 (LIVE) (0.3u) LOSS ,..... not posted here, just full disclosure.  Had the +44.5 queued up, but didn't get it locked in, then took this number a couple drives later.  Lost by half a point.

ADDITIONS IN BOLD:

Buffalo / St. Francis Under 49.5 -110 (5u)

McNeese State +21.5 -110 (4u)

Western Carolina +21.5 -105 (4u)

Western Carolina ML +1000 (risk 0.3u to win 3u)

Washington -26.5 -115 (3u)

Southern Miss -9.5 -115 (3u)

Illinois State -24.5 -110 (2.5u)  .... decided not to list -28.5 in the app once all locked in, so not listed there at all.  Probably still a play.

Bucknell -6.5 -110 (2u)

Illinois State / Morehead State Over 48.5 -110 (1u)  ....same, not in app at 49.5 now, but should be fine for a play at 49.5.

Bethune-Cookman +58.5 -110 (1u)

Massachusetts / Bryant Under 52.5 -110 (1u)

Stephen F. Austin -2.5 -115 (1u)

Nevada -6.5 -115 (0.75u)

Minnesota -43.5 -110 (0.5u)  .... looking to try for a middle here if this moves or in-game.

6-Leg parlay long shot:

Connecticut ML +202, Western Carolina ML +640, Buffalo/St. Francis Under 49.5 -110, Southern Miss -13.5 -115, Mississippi State ML +195, McNeese State +21.5.  Risking 0.23u to win 103.3u.

6-Leg parlay alt lines, etc:

Iowa +7.5 -215, Connecticut +10.5 -170, Western Carolina +18.5 -110, Buffalo/St. Francis Under 49.5 -110, Mississippi State +10.5 -184, McNeese State +21.5 -110.  Risking 0.1u to win 2.5u.

I’m going to do an honorary tail on your Buffalo/St Francis under plays, because I like your work and I’ve rarely seen you post 5 unit plays. Best of luck!

WEEK 2 College Extra & FCS: 

Friday:

Boise State -24.5 -115 (2u)  WIN

Boise State / Eastern Washington Over 54.5 -110 (0.75u)  WIN

EWU +36.5 -110 (LIVE) (0.3u) LOSS 

Saturday:

Buffalo / St. Francis Under 49.5 -110 (5u)

McNeese State +21.5 -110 (4u)

Western Carolina +21.5 -105 (4u)

Western Carolina ML +1000 (risk 0.3u to win 3u)

Washington -26.5 -115 (3u)

Southern Miss -9.5 -115 (3u)

Illinois State -24.5 -110 (2.5u)  .... my bad yesterday, I did put it in the app after waiting.

Bucknell -6.5 -110 (2u)

Added: Mercyhurst -11.5 -112 & -120 (1.5u)

Illinois State / Morehead State Over 48.5 -110 (1u)  

Bethune-Cookman +58.5 -110 (1u)

Massachusetts / Bryant Under 52.5 -110 (1u)

Stephen F. Austin -2.5 -115 (1u)

Nevada -6.5 -115 (0.75u)

Added:  Tennessee Tech -2.5 -115 (0.75u)

Added:  UT - Rio Grande Valley +7.5 -110 (0.75u) .... game not listed in app.

Minnesota -43.5 -110 (0.5u)

6-Leg parlay long shot:

Connecticut ML +202, Western Carolina ML +640, Buffalo/St. Francis Under 49.5 -110, Southern Miss -13.5 -115, Mississippi State ML +195, McNeese State +21.5.  Risking 0.23u to win 103.3u.

6-Leg parlay alt lines, etc:

Iowa +7.5 -215, Connecticut +10.5 -170, Western Carolina +18.5 -110, Buffalo/St. Francis Under 49.5 -110, Mississippi State +10.5 -184, McNeese State +21.5 -110.  Risking 0.1u to win 2.5u.

Added:  5-Leg parlay long shot:

Kansas ML +188, St. Francis / Buffalo Under 50.5 -110, UT-Rio Grande Valley ML +162, Mississippi State ML +195, McNeese State ML +740.  Risking 0.14u to win 50.0u.

WEEK 2 College Extra & FCS: 

Friday:

Boise State -24.5 -115 (2u)  WIN

Boise State / Eastern Washington Over 54.5 -110 (0.75u)  WIN

EWU +36.5 -110 (LIVE) (0.3u) LOSS 

Saturday:

Buffalo / St. Francis Under 49.5 -110 (5u)

McNeese State +21.5 -110 (4u)

Western Carolina +21.5 -105 (4u)

Western Carolina ML +1000 (risk 0.3u to win 3u)

Washington -26.5 -115 (3u)

Southern Miss -9.5 -115 (3u)

Illinois State -24.5 -110 (2.5u)  

Added:  Wofford / Richmond Under 40.5 -110 (2.5u)

Bucknell -6.5 -110 (2u)

Mercyhurst -11.5 -112 & -120 (1.5u)

Illinois State / Morehead State Over 48.5 -110 (1u)  

Bethune-Cookman +58.5 -110 (1u)

Massachusetts / Bryant Under 52.5 -110 (1u)

Stephen F. Austin -2.5 -115 (1u)

Nevada -6.5 -115 (0.75u)

Tennessee Tech -2.5 -115 (0.75u)

UT - Rio Grande Valley +7.5 -110 (0.75u)

Minnesota -43.5 -110 (0.5u)

6-Leg parlay long shot:

Connecticut ML +202, Western Carolina ML +640, Buffalo/St. Francis Under 49.5 -110, Southern Miss -13.5 -115, Mississippi State ML +195, McNeese State +21.5.  Risking 0.23u to win 103.3u.

6-Leg parlay alt lines, etc:

Iowa +7.5 -215, Connecticut +10.5 -170, Western Carolina +18.5 -110, Buffalo/St. Francis Under 49.5 -110, Mississippi State +10.5 -184, McNeese State +21.5 -110.  Risking 0.1u to win 2.5u.

5-Leg parlay long shot:

Kansas ML +188, St. Francis / Buffalo Under 50.5 -110, UT-Rio Grande Valley ML +162, Mississippi State ML +195, McNeese State ML +740.  Risking 0.14u to win 50.0u.

I see that my consecutive weeks streak of easy blowout winning tickets being voided is in tact at two straight weeks.  SMH, Minnesota game needed to go another 1 minute & 15 seconds to hit 55 minutes to be graded.   I'll see if I can find another one for next week.

Gl TD.  I find it interesting you put 5 units on a qb whose first name is Judy ??????.   Plenty of game left for her to cover though. Bol 

@JEFFMARKETCAP

Yeah, unfortunately his defense looks like there's a few more on that side of the ball. 

The QB is playing because the expected starter is out for unspecified reasons.  I may have got a little too cute with this one, but we'll see how it plays out.  Hope you're enjoying some college football today!