Posting this one early knowing the risk it will get buried tomorrow. Hopefully, some of you will find it helpful before it does. Let’s talk!
A spicy non-con matchup in Chapel Hill: TCU Horned Frogs (9-4 LY) vs UNC Tar Heels (6-7 LY). Lines are sitting at TCU -3.5, total O/U 55.5, and first half O/U 27.5. TCU’s coming off a hot finish, while UNC’s got the Hoodie himself, Bill Belichick, making his CFB debut (with plenty of offseason buzz about his sideline presence). Can Belichick scheme an upset, or does TCU’s experience carry the day? Let’s break it down.
2024 Recaps: Setting the Stage
UNC opened 3-0, then collapsed highlighted by James Madison. They clawed to 6-7 (4-9 ATS), ending with a Fenway Bowl loss to UConn. Offense was solid (31 PPG, balanced 182 rush/224 pass), but defense was middle-of-the-pack ACC.
TCU stumbled early (L’s to UCF, SMU, Houston), but flipped the script down the stretch, winning 5 of their last 6 and crushing Louisiana 34-3 in the New Mexico Bowl. Ended 9-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS. Hoover’s arm fueled a top-10 passing attack, though the run game was bottom-20 nationally. Defense allowed just 24.6 PPG and was excellent vs the pass.
2025 Outlooks: Keys to the Game
UNC Offense: Six straight seasons over 30 PPG, but losing RB Omarion Hampton (1,660 yds, 17 TD) is massive. RB Davion Gause is the next man up, but depth is thin. WR room resets after losing its top target, Kobe Paysour leads young pieces Jordan Shipp and Adrian Wilson. QB Gio Lopez (South Alabama transfer: 18-5 TD-INT, 465 rush yds, 7 TD) has mobility but limited chemistry. Veteran OL (150+ starts) stabilizes. Outlook: capable, but volatility is high.
UNC Defense: ACC-mediocre in 2024, but did rack up 41 sacks. They lost all their top tacklers and sack leaders, lots of transfer patchwork. DE Pryce Yates (UConn), LB Andrew Simpson (Boise), and S Gavin Gibson (ECU) step in. Steve Belichick’s scheme adds upside, but expect breakdowns.
TCU Offense: QB Josh Hoover (3,949 yds, 27-11) returns, but WR room reshuffled. Eric McAlister (19.5 YPC, 5 TD) and transfer Joseph Manjack should keep the passing game dangerous. UTSA transfer RB Kevorian Barnes joins a committee to fix LY’s 113th-ranked run game. OL has 90+ starts. Expect fewer bombs, more balance—28–32 PPG profile.
TCU Defense: Underrated LY (top-20 pass eff D). Front seven anchored by Deal brothers, LB Namdi Obiazor, and an elite safety duo in Jamel Johnson & Bud Clark. Only weakness: sack production (26 LY, 59th). If they boost that, this is a top-5 Big 12 defense.
Matchup & Angles
Experience edge favors TCU. Hoover is proven, the defense is cohesive, and they’ve got more answers in the trenches. UNC is exciting with Lopez and Belichick’s scheme, but without Hampton, their ceiling shrinks, especially against a defense built to erase one-dimensional attacks.
Spread (TCU -3.5): Road fave is short. TCU’s continuity and defense overwhelm UNC’s transition.
Total (55.5): Both averaged 30+ PPG last year, but Week 1 rust, UNC turnover, and TCU’s defense tilt it under. Projection in the 50–52 range.
First Half (27.5): Expect conservative scripts, defenses forcing punts, and some sloppy execution. Likely 23–24 points at halftime.
Prediction
Belichick will eventually elevate UNC, but this opener is a bad matchup. TCU’s balance and veteran defense win out against a Tar Heel squad breaking in new skill talent.
I see a final score of something like TCU 30, UNC 21
I’m looking at TCU -3.5, Under 55.5, 1H Under 27.5
I’ll finalize my pick(s) tomorrow.
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