Sjose st and why

2-0 after cmich came thru.  Let's look at some numbers and discuss:

      Bowlgn    87  7  76  136     (212)

7.5 Sjosest    30   28  30 75      (105)

the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning BG is only better in Total def.  Based on bowl games in the past typically the 1 B team wins or covers these games (there's been 24 games played since 2009 with this similar scenario - different lines but these scenarios 2 ties, 15 1 B teams that covered or won outright and 7 favorites that have won.  Percentage wise you would think it's best to go with BG, however, the main reason for going with Sjosest. -   If the 1 B team has a composite in the 200's which BG does - take the 3 team - thus i'm on Sjose St.

Folks have asked about over/unders - i don't track them - thus i don't bet them - my lean would be under.  Good luck all.

-------------------------------------------------------------

1-0 after smu crushed and won out right.   Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:

      Cmich     67 94   119    121       (240)

6    Wky      72  23    80      104      (184)

My first rhetorical question - why are these teams in a bowl game with composites of 240 and 180. Anyways, the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. 

I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is what I call a 1 A / 3 situation - meaning - Cmich is only better in Total off.

The line opened at Wky -6 - currently hovering around 6.5. 

During the season, very often you will see a lot of upsets when this is the pattern, however, you have to consider this is a neutral site for both teams.  Thus I've looked at previous bowl games since 2009 - with this scenario, typically when the underdog has a composite of 200 or more the line is a double digit for the favorite.   And very often the team that has the best sagarin composite comes out on top/covers.  

However, i'm not having a warm fuzzy regarding wky.  I recognize on paper cmich sucks and wky is clearly better (not by too much) - but the oddsmakers made wky a 6 pt favorite - why not higher - I know I know - playing in mich etc.  but still 6 pts.

The other thing - during the season wky played middle ten st -147 - composite for wky and 211 composite for midd. ten - middle ten won out right.     In other games during the season, very often the 200 team usually loses big.  Indicates, they may play down to the compettition. This was the only game where I saw the the 200 team win outright.  I'm on Cmich. tonite even thought they have a composite of 240. Don't go crazy, plenty more opportunities await.  Good luck all.     

----------------------------------------------------------

Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:

          SMU   95 66  78  93          (171)

12.5   Fres.   14 19   40 98          (138)

Fresno opens at 12.5, currently around 12.5 (donbest.com).  

Simply looking at the numbers one may say Fres. dominates in total off and total def. they have a better sagarin rank and are almost tied when it comes to sched. strength - thus my money is on Fres...........hold up grasshopper.

In order to get a sense of who to take in this game - you have to compare this scenario with games played previously in other bowl games (to ensure the neutral field is considered).  Looking at my data from previous seasons - their have been a limited number of similar scenarios along with a spread the same or close to 12.5 - but they indicated take the points.  Thus i'm on SMU.  I wish everyone a merry xmas, holiday etc. and a happy new year. 

I'm not sold on simply looking at consensus and doing the opposite or joining the band wagon- but I do ask myself the question - if I had to bet a life changing amount - would fres. do it for me tonite - my answer - I doubt it.  Good luck all.

latech - add up the sagarin ranks - it's a composite. 

All - Thanks for the well wishes - same to you. 

 latech - titan - i put a post in the strategy section - a while back called CFB - System to consider - which is basically a step by step on how I handicap games - not sure if it is still there - but that might help you.  Basically, It's recording data and trying to mimic history.   Figure out trends and apply them to upcoming games along with looking at the vegas opening line. 

Humilde - the cincy duke game - that's an interesting game - not a lot of trends in that scenario - still researching but may avoid that game.

Coitus - i try not to get hung up on coaching changes or injuries - unless it's the qb - i figure the players want to win and all the other stuff will not distract them - thus i stick to the data and trends. 

i'm near dc - cloudy and kinda cool with a breeze - if your thinking about an over/under.