That other thread seemed to be getting pretty sloppy. Starting over with the results of this little analysis.
Sagarin Rankings would forecast a line that is 3 or more points off from the actual betting line in 9 games. Those nine are listed in order of the greatest difference between Sagarin and the line.
THE team listed in the team with the "advantage" ATS according to the Sagarin rankings.
(+9.9 Wash St.)
(+8.72 Buffalo)
(+6.13 FSU)
(+5.44 Washington)
(+4.31 Duke)
(+4.04 USC)
( +3.52 Navy)
(+3.25 GT)
(+3.05 Houston)
I like Buffalo, Navy and Duke the most cause I think they have appreciable motivational edges on their opponents.
That other thread seemed to be getting pretty sloppy. Starting over with the results of this little analysis.
Sagarin Rankings would forecast a line that is 3 or more points off from the actual betting line in 9 games. Those nine are listed in order of the greatest difference between Sagarin and the line.
THE team listed in the team with the "advantage" ATS according to the Sagarin rankings.
(+9.9 Wash St.)
(+8.72 Buffalo)
(+6.13 FSU)
(+5.44 Washington)
(+4.31 Duke)
(+4.04 USC)
( +3.52 Navy)
(+3.25 GT)
(+3.05 Houston)
I like Buffalo, Navy and Duke the most cause I think they have appreciable motivational edges on their opponents.
Low roller - i just wish it was that simple.....looking at sagarin is a good start but you need to go further......i try to explain what i mean in rocafella's post wazzu/col st. I only bring it up because i've lost a ton just looking at those numbers - when i went further and looking up some more data points and comparing the line, as well as sagarin and some other data points to historical results is when i found myself picking more winners than losers. Take a look it may help - good luck to you.
Low roller - i just wish it was that simple.....looking at sagarin is a good start but you need to go further......i try to explain what i mean in rocafella's post wazzu/col st. I only bring it up because i've lost a ton just looking at those numbers - when i went further and looking up some more data points and comparing the line, as well as sagarin and some other data points to historical results is when i found myself picking more winners than losers. Take a look it may help - good luck to you.
Yah i pick games on feel and try to stick with teams i know best.Im in a bowl pool that im trying to take seriously. Some of these early bowl games are matchups I have very little feel for.
So i tried something new and resorted to the Sagarins to try to give me a starting point on looking at these teams/
As someone mentioned before, Sagarin is computer model that does not account for recent situational develpments. Like injury, coaching change, new guy getting PT or whatever. It is 100% data with no adjustment for variables that different from the past. It weighs each result of the season evenly with no emphasis on recent results over something that happened in September.
The Buffalo pick is starting to concern me with all the opposite line movement..maybe it should be a comfort.
Yah i pick games on feel and try to stick with teams i know best.Im in a bowl pool that im trying to take seriously. Some of these early bowl games are matchups I have very little feel for.
So i tried something new and resorted to the Sagarins to try to give me a starting point on looking at these teams/
As someone mentioned before, Sagarin is computer model that does not account for recent situational develpments. Like injury, coaching change, new guy getting PT or whatever. It is 100% data with no adjustment for variables that different from the past. It weighs each result of the season evenly with no emphasis on recent results over something that happened in September.
The Buffalo pick is starting to concern me with all the opposite line movement..maybe it should be a comfort.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.