im hitting uc/ew over out the gate.. think this goes extreme like we saw w NIC/Word... well... not that extreme.. nothing is that extreme lol...
im hitting uc/ew over out the gate.. think this goes extreme like we saw w NIC/Word... well... not that extreme.. nothing is that extreme lol...
im hitting uc/ew over out the gate.. think this goes extreme like we saw w NIC/Word... well... not that extreme.. nothing is that extreme lol...
Bridge, your have in-depth knowledge on these teams, are you a box-score stat-hound or do you watch most of the games?
This is the first season I've streamed sports, but it's interesting. Love that I can hit the "jump 10 seconds forward" button between plays to move the action along and skip commercials, and love that I can watch a game at my convenience, when time permits.
And I had a funny situation three weeks back. Needed the Over in a game, and needed OT to get it. Closing minute of the game, I'm rooting for the team with possession to drive down field and kick a FG to tie it up and send it to OT. I glance at the lower right hand side of my screen and notice that the stream has 28 minutes left. I look at the game clock again and see a minute left. And, based on the time differential, I realized they were going to kick the FG and I was going to get OT. It was strange knowing what was going to happen before I saw it happen on the field.
I have ESPN+, just got Pluto TV this week so I could watch the E Wash game. Thus far, it's been a fun season. Football in the Spring, what's not to love?
Bridge, your have in-depth knowledge on these teams, are you a box-score stat-hound or do you watch most of the games?
This is the first season I've streamed sports, but it's interesting. Love that I can hit the "jump 10 seconds forward" button between plays to move the action along and skip commercials, and love that I can watch a game at my convenience, when time permits.
And I had a funny situation three weeks back. Needed the Over in a game, and needed OT to get it. Closing minute of the game, I'm rooting for the team with possession to drive down field and kick a FG to tie it up and send it to OT. I glance at the lower right hand side of my screen and notice that the stream has 28 minutes left. I look at the game clock again and see a minute left. And, based on the time differential, I realized they were going to kick the FG and I was going to get OT. It was strange knowing what was going to happen before I saw it happen on the field.
I have ESPN+, just got Pluto TV this week so I could watch the E Wash game. Thus far, it's been a fun season. Football in the Spring, what's not to love?
Yeah v i watch as much as i can on sat, replay very handy sometimes ... check out NEC Front Row, has the Northeast games for free... sprung for flo football to get the colonial... way too expensive but if betting games you GOTTA be able to see a team to size them up .. not betting swac games for that reason....
i check espn box scores / play by play if needed .. want a sense of how the team plays/scores etc..... lucky off a turnover/sp teams td or legit drives .. how stopped.. 3'n outs or drive killing penalties .. get lucky/unlucky?...
also copy the ncaa team stats down in an excel template, very handy ref ..theres no d stats recorded anywhere else that i can tell ... can glean alot of other stuff like the pace w ToP used /play, penalties, turnovers, how many pts they leave in the RZ .... maybe most important, configure the rush stats to separate sacks and the sack yds or rushing is totally distorted .. still working on it but i get what i want from it for now.. basically just try to have a mental picture of what a team is likely good/bad at ... then check what sagrin/massy says which i think bookies are heavily relying on for fcs.... i try to make my picks off that before the lines are out .. the models can have absurd swings esp w the shorter conf only schedules.. we saw sagrin rank tulsa like top 10 or so after they won a couple games and played ok.st (w out their qb) close .. models dont watch games so if u watch then you're likely to be sharper than the model and for fcs that means u prob sharper than the bookies... at least opening lines ...
this week sagrin went real wacky... the delaware division in the colonial like 30 pts higher on avg than the jmu side .. says maine is 25 pt fav over jmu lol.. big sky far and away best conf .. maybe ever .. poly 4 pt favs over north dakota .. mmm kay... inntra conf/division much more realistic but some glaring discrepancies .. obvi hope the models stay this confused when playoffs start lol...
Yeah v i watch as much as i can on sat, replay very handy sometimes ... check out NEC Front Row, has the Northeast games for free... sprung for flo football to get the colonial... way too expensive but if betting games you GOTTA be able to see a team to size them up .. not betting swac games for that reason....
i check espn box scores / play by play if needed .. want a sense of how the team plays/scores etc..... lucky off a turnover/sp teams td or legit drives .. how stopped.. 3'n outs or drive killing penalties .. get lucky/unlucky?...
also copy the ncaa team stats down in an excel template, very handy ref ..theres no d stats recorded anywhere else that i can tell ... can glean alot of other stuff like the pace w ToP used /play, penalties, turnovers, how many pts they leave in the RZ .... maybe most important, configure the rush stats to separate sacks and the sack yds or rushing is totally distorted .. still working on it but i get what i want from it for now.. basically just try to have a mental picture of what a team is likely good/bad at ... then check what sagrin/massy says which i think bookies are heavily relying on for fcs.... i try to make my picks off that before the lines are out .. the models can have absurd swings esp w the shorter conf only schedules.. we saw sagrin rank tulsa like top 10 or so after they won a couple games and played ok.st (w out their qb) close .. models dont watch games so if u watch then you're likely to be sharper than the model and for fcs that means u prob sharper than the bookies... at least opening lines ...
this week sagrin went real wacky... the delaware division in the colonial like 30 pts higher on avg than the jmu side .. says maine is 25 pt fav over jmu lol.. big sky far and away best conf .. maybe ever .. poly 4 pt favs over north dakota .. mmm kay... inntra conf/division much more realistic but some glaring discrepancies .. obvi hope the models stay this confused when playoffs start lol...
that approach btw was good for a few weeks .. by now we shud know generally what a team has been good/bad at .. still want to know the pace and how lucky/unlucky they are, injuries if i can find them.. box score for albany and vmi this week... notice anyone missing?... didnt matter much for vmi since wr's are just THAT legit ... albany w 1 td vs Stony after looking not bad so far.. dont know if undercuffler is out w inj or what but feel way better about a del/alb under if he is...
besides injuries i think the big must know stuff at this pt in the season is very nuanced .. coach gunna play backups .. bolster the roster for fall.. good idea for alot of teams to do that.. nw state really died off, trying to pass alot more, 3 picks on first 3 drives vs lamar whose also looking like an offensive dynamo all of a sudden .. that game anyway... ive been trying to stick to playing teams w a shot at the post ssn .. still will, but if not really have to do the extra leg work to know were not betting on a teams bench... ideally look to bet on quality vs teams that arent exactly 100% in it to win it ... for some it might not even be 50% lol... would esp look at teams that looked okay but lost their shot ...
sam hoo kills nw state maybe?.. gunna be expensive but one signaling done and other tryin to build a top seed resume..
citadel will 1000% show up vs big rival woff.. are they just THAT bad?.. idk, but should be getting 14 or more ... woff w real DL issues and out of the playoffs after EPIC meltdown vs VMI ... i'd look at under here as well....
UNI still have an outside shot?... 5-3 in MV if somehow win out and beat NDSU .. close loss to SDSU and s.ill on resume.. wouldnt count on them rolling over and playing dead here.. SD idk prob try for a win if in the game.. ... h1 SD?... hope we get a total to go under with, some of UNI's points were pretty fluky last game, not sold theyve flipped any switches on.. or off...
sag w NAU-9 .. are you out of your mind?!.. no way its that low.. think Lumbos try to get in on the fun here.. they brought in a boatload of fbs xfers on d .. gotta check if theyre playing or not but gotta be more confident after last week..
mizzou state quietly 4-1 in the MV.... got nd and y-town state assuming covidians havent already cancelled the rest of their season... if not u can bet its super max effort from here..
that approach btw was good for a few weeks .. by now we shud know generally what a team has been good/bad at .. still want to know the pace and how lucky/unlucky they are, injuries if i can find them.. box score for albany and vmi this week... notice anyone missing?... didnt matter much for vmi since wr's are just THAT legit ... albany w 1 td vs Stony after looking not bad so far.. dont know if undercuffler is out w inj or what but feel way better about a del/alb under if he is...
besides injuries i think the big must know stuff at this pt in the season is very nuanced .. coach gunna play backups .. bolster the roster for fall.. good idea for alot of teams to do that.. nw state really died off, trying to pass alot more, 3 picks on first 3 drives vs lamar whose also looking like an offensive dynamo all of a sudden .. that game anyway... ive been trying to stick to playing teams w a shot at the post ssn .. still will, but if not really have to do the extra leg work to know were not betting on a teams bench... ideally look to bet on quality vs teams that arent exactly 100% in it to win it ... for some it might not even be 50% lol... would esp look at teams that looked okay but lost their shot ...
sam hoo kills nw state maybe?.. gunna be expensive but one signaling done and other tryin to build a top seed resume..
citadel will 1000% show up vs big rival woff.. are they just THAT bad?.. idk, but should be getting 14 or more ... woff w real DL issues and out of the playoffs after EPIC meltdown vs VMI ... i'd look at under here as well....
UNI still have an outside shot?... 5-3 in MV if somehow win out and beat NDSU .. close loss to SDSU and s.ill on resume.. wouldnt count on them rolling over and playing dead here.. SD idk prob try for a win if in the game.. ... h1 SD?... hope we get a total to go under with, some of UNI's points were pretty fluky last game, not sold theyve flipped any switches on.. or off...
sag w NAU-9 .. are you out of your mind?!.. no way its that low.. think Lumbos try to get in on the fun here.. they brought in a boatload of fbs xfers on d .. gotta check if theyre playing or not but gotta be more confident after last week..
mizzou state quietly 4-1 in the MV.... got nd and y-town state assuming covidians havent already cancelled the rest of their season... if not u can bet its super max effort from here..
Finished 'capping this week's card. Before I get to this week's choices, here's what I have to work with (record of games that qualify):
Overall 26-16, Ov 16-12, Un 10-4
Games that grade out at 5 pts or > have a record of 7-5, Ov 4-4, Un 3-1
Games that grade out at 8 pts or > are 6-1, Ov 5-1, Un 1-0
*This week's choices:
Ov in McNeese, Weber; Un in Youngstown.
No plays grade out at 5 or >.
* These may change; games may be added or dropped due to line moves today and tomorrow. I will update before game time whenever possible.
Again this week, not a lot of spots to choose from.
McNeese has been in this spot three times this season and is 1-2; no buy there.
Weber is 0-1 in this spot, and so is S Utah; no buy there, a fade if anything.
Youngstown and W Illinois have not been in this spot this season, 0-0.
Since I'm getting so few qualifying spots to choose from on totals, I've been doing some work on sides. Most situations that I've looked at come out to be approx .500, so, no value, but one spot shows promise. I have it logged in my notebook at 8-3 overall this season. Overs are of no use at 3-3 but Dogs are at 5-0 so there may be value there if that % holds. If it does, I'll look to start buying it. This week, no buys, just tracking purposes, one spot, Bucknell +7.
Buys:
Youngstown/W Illinois Un 49
Finished 'capping this week's card. Before I get to this week's choices, here's what I have to work with (record of games that qualify):
Overall 26-16, Ov 16-12, Un 10-4
Games that grade out at 5 pts or > have a record of 7-5, Ov 4-4, Un 3-1
Games that grade out at 8 pts or > are 6-1, Ov 5-1, Un 1-0
*This week's choices:
Ov in McNeese, Weber; Un in Youngstown.
No plays grade out at 5 or >.
* These may change; games may be added or dropped due to line moves today and tomorrow. I will update before game time whenever possible.
Again this week, not a lot of spots to choose from.
McNeese has been in this spot three times this season and is 1-2; no buy there.
Weber is 0-1 in this spot, and so is S Utah; no buy there, a fade if anything.
Youngstown and W Illinois have not been in this spot this season, 0-0.
Since I'm getting so few qualifying spots to choose from on totals, I've been doing some work on sides. Most situations that I've looked at come out to be approx .500, so, no value, but one spot shows promise. I have it logged in my notebook at 8-3 overall this season. Overs are of no use at 3-3 but Dogs are at 5-0 so there may be value there if that % holds. If it does, I'll look to start buying it. This week, no buys, just tracking purposes, one spot, Bucknell +7.
Buys:
Youngstown/W Illinois Un 49
Saturday morning updates:
No qualifying plays come off the board, but I have a few added spots.
Over in Lamar, Unders in Bucknell, Delaware State.
Also, Howard +9 qualifies for the same Dog spot I noted above with Bucknell (+9 now.)
The Delaware State/Howard Un spot grades out at 8 pts or > (6-1, Ov 5-1, Un 1-0.) If it was an Over I'd buy it, but the Un is only 1-0, not a lot of data on the play. Main reason I'm laying off though is I missed the best number by five pts. Obviously you always try to get the best number, sometimes you can't and you settle for what you can get, but I'm not jumping on a game where I missed the best number by as many as five points.
Buys:
Bucknell/Lehigh Un 50'
Youngstown/W Illinois Un 49
Saturday morning updates:
No qualifying plays come off the board, but I have a few added spots.
Over in Lamar, Unders in Bucknell, Delaware State.
Also, Howard +9 qualifies for the same Dog spot I noted above with Bucknell (+9 now.)
The Delaware State/Howard Un spot grades out at 8 pts or > (6-1, Ov 5-1, Un 1-0.) If it was an Over I'd buy it, but the Un is only 1-0, not a lot of data on the play. Main reason I'm laying off though is I missed the best number by five pts. Obviously you always try to get the best number, sometimes you can't and you settle for what you can get, but I'm not jumping on a game where I missed the best number by as many as five points.
Buys:
Bucknell/Lehigh Un 50'
Youngstown/W Illinois Un 49
Recap: 1-1
Missed with Youngstown Un by 2 pts, hit an easy W with Bucknell as they stayed Un by 44 pts.
Record: 11-3
Posted spots had a lousy day at 2-4. Overall now 28-20, Ov 17-14, Un 11-6
Games that grade out at 5 pts or > have a record of 7-5, Ov 4-4, Un 3-1
Games that grade out at 8 pts or > are 6-2, Ov 5-1, Un 1-1
From last week's post: "Since I'm getting so few qualifying spots to choose from on totals, I've been doing some work on sides. Most situations that I've looked at come out to be approx .500, so, no value, but one spot shows promise. I have it logged in my notebook at 8-3 overall this season. Overs are of no use at 3-3 but Dogs are at 5-0 so there may be value there if that % holds. If it does, I'll look to start buying it. This week, no buys, just tracking purposes, one spot, Bucknell +7."
Howard also qualified for that spot, they pushed, but Bucknell won, 6-0-1 now.
This week, back to normal, a good # of spots to choose from.
Ov in Presby, Miss Valley St, Idaho St, Sam Houston, S Utah
Un in Youngstown, 'Bama A&M, Del St, Incarnate, Murray St.
Youngstown is 0-1 in this spot, Presby 1-1, Idaho St 1-1, Weber St 0-2, Jackson St 1-0,
McNeese 2-2, Sam Houston 1-0, Del St 1-1, S Utah 0-2, Murray St 0-1.
Sam Houston grades out at > 5
'Bama A&M grades out at 8 or >
Still have to do 'capping on sides, no buys for now.
Recap: 1-1
Missed with Youngstown Un by 2 pts, hit an easy W with Bucknell as they stayed Un by 44 pts.
Record: 11-3
Posted spots had a lousy day at 2-4. Overall now 28-20, Ov 17-14, Un 11-6
Games that grade out at 5 pts or > have a record of 7-5, Ov 4-4, Un 3-1
Games that grade out at 8 pts or > are 6-2, Ov 5-1, Un 1-1
From last week's post: "Since I'm getting so few qualifying spots to choose from on totals, I've been doing some work on sides. Most situations that I've looked at come out to be approx .500, so, no value, but one spot shows promise. I have it logged in my notebook at 8-3 overall this season. Overs are of no use at 3-3 but Dogs are at 5-0 so there may be value there if that % holds. If it does, I'll look to start buying it. This week, no buys, just tracking purposes, one spot, Bucknell +7."
Howard also qualified for that spot, they pushed, but Bucknell won, 6-0-1 now.
This week, back to normal, a good # of spots to choose from.
Ov in Presby, Miss Valley St, Idaho St, Sam Houston, S Utah
Un in Youngstown, 'Bama A&M, Del St, Incarnate, Murray St.
Youngstown is 0-1 in this spot, Presby 1-1, Idaho St 1-1, Weber St 0-2, Jackson St 1-0,
McNeese 2-2, Sam Houston 1-0, Del St 1-1, S Utah 0-2, Murray St 0-1.
Sam Houston grades out at > 5
'Bama A&M grades out at 8 or >
Still have to do 'capping on sides, no buys for now.
Friday/Saturday morning updates usually have a couple plays drop off the board and a few plays added. This week, no adds, but a lot of drops as line moves made games no longer qualify under the parameters I set.
Presby, Miss Valley St, Weber St, Incarnate, and Murray St come off the list, they no longer qualify.
And Sam Houston and 'Bama A&M no longer grade out high enough to fit as > 5 or > 8; they're just regular plays now.
I finished handicapping sides and I have no games that fit the 6-0 Dog spot this week.
I'll make my buys Saturday morning, I've put a lot of time in but I'm just not confident about any spots right now.
Friday/Saturday morning updates usually have a couple plays drop off the board and a few plays added. This week, no adds, but a lot of drops as line moves made games no longer qualify under the parameters I set.
Presby, Miss Valley St, Weber St, Incarnate, and Murray St come off the list, they no longer qualify.
And Sam Houston and 'Bama A&M no longer grade out high enough to fit as > 5 or > 8; they're just regular plays now.
I finished handicapping sides and I have no games that fit the 6-0 Dog spot this week.
I'll make my buys Saturday morning, I've put a lot of time in but I'm just not confident about any spots right now.
Thank you, Fuse; same to you, good luck with your play this week.
Recap: 1-1 last week, won with Youngstown Un, lost with Jackson St Un.
Record: 12-4
Somewhere in my posts above is a note-to-self: "Try to avoid using Deion's Jackson St in Unders." Should have followed my own advice.
Will be back tomorrow with this week's qualifying spots.
Thank you, Fuse; same to you, good luck with your play this week.
Recap: 1-1 last week, won with Youngstown Un, lost with Jackson St Un.
Record: 12-4
Somewhere in my posts above is a note-to-self: "Try to avoid using Deion's Jackson St in Unders." Should have followed my own advice.
Will be back tomorrow with this week's qualifying spots.
Qualifying spots to choose from this week, only two:
Valpo/SD Un and Del St/S Car St Un.
Well, at least they're Unders. Overs are 17-15, Unders are 12-8 on these spots this season. Not getting the same production on Unders as I did in FBS, but 60% is more than okay.
Del St is 1-2 in this spot this season, all others 0-0.
I have one early game, Valpo at 10 am, one late, Del St at 3 pm. I'm going to ride the early one, after results are in I'll make a decision on playing the later game or not. Plus, I have a match with Bridge on the Valpo spot, and it's an automatic buy for me whenever something of mine matches any of his plays.
Good luck to all with your plays this week.
Buys:
Valpo/S Diego Un 49'
Qualifying spots to choose from this week, only two:
Valpo/SD Un and Del St/S Car St Un.
Well, at least they're Unders. Overs are 17-15, Unders are 12-8 on these spots this season. Not getting the same production on Unders as I did in FBS, but 60% is more than okay.
Del St is 1-2 in this spot this season, all others 0-0.
I have one early game, Valpo at 10 am, one late, Del St at 3 pm. I'm going to ride the early one, after results are in I'll make a decision on playing the later game or not. Plus, I have a match with Bridge on the Valpo spot, and it's an automatic buy for me whenever something of mine matches any of his plays.
Good luck to all with your plays this week.
Buys:
Valpo/S Diego Un 49'
Recap: Nailed the Under with Valpo.
Record: 13-4
Last week I had only two Unders to work with. After getting a winner in the morning, I decided to lay off the later game with Del St for two reasons:
1 - I had back-to-back weeks of 1-1, I wanted to avoid the possibility of three in a row.
2 - The main reason, as noted last week, "Del St is 1-2 in this spot." I didn't want to buy a game using a team that lost 2 of 3 in the same spot. And . . . the Davidson game sailed Over by 18 pts.
This week, I only have one spot that qualifies, Davidson/Jacksonville St Ov.
I play a conservative style, because it works for me, and I lean mainly on Unders rather than Overs because more than 15 years worth of data shows me that that's where I am the most profitable. With no Unders this week, I'm going to do something a little different for me - I'm buying a side. Back on April 2, post #55, I said:
"Since I'm getting so few qualifying spots to choose from on totals, I've been doing some work on sides. Most situations that I've looked at come out to be approx .500, so, no value, but one spot shows promise. I have it logged in my notebook at 8-3 overall this season. Overs are of no use at 3-3 but Dogs are at 5-0 so there may be value there if that % holds. If it does, I'll look to start buying it. This week, no buys, just tracking purposes, one spot, Bucknell +7."
My 2021 chart shows me that my tracked play on sides is just 25-23 (which is why I don't play sides), Favs 12-14, Dogs 13-9. The play I referenced above finished at 11-4, Favs 5-4 Dogs 6-0-1. And when I have games that grade out at 10 or >, it's 6-1, Favs 3-1, Dogs 3-0.
J Madison grades out at 10 or >.
They were 10 or > in two other games this season, and they're 2-0 ATS.
I'll aim for 3-0.
Buys:
J Madison -14
Recap: Nailed the Under with Valpo.
Record: 13-4
Last week I had only two Unders to work with. After getting a winner in the morning, I decided to lay off the later game with Del St for two reasons:
1 - I had back-to-back weeks of 1-1, I wanted to avoid the possibility of three in a row.
2 - The main reason, as noted last week, "Del St is 1-2 in this spot." I didn't want to buy a game using a team that lost 2 of 3 in the same spot. And . . . the Davidson game sailed Over by 18 pts.
This week, I only have one spot that qualifies, Davidson/Jacksonville St Ov.
I play a conservative style, because it works for me, and I lean mainly on Unders rather than Overs because more than 15 years worth of data shows me that that's where I am the most profitable. With no Unders this week, I'm going to do something a little different for me - I'm buying a side. Back on April 2, post #55, I said:
"Since I'm getting so few qualifying spots to choose from on totals, I've been doing some work on sides. Most situations that I've looked at come out to be approx .500, so, no value, but one spot shows promise. I have it logged in my notebook at 8-3 overall this season. Overs are of no use at 3-3 but Dogs are at 5-0 so there may be value there if that % holds. If it does, I'll look to start buying it. This week, no buys, just tracking purposes, one spot, Bucknell +7."
My 2021 chart shows me that my tracked play on sides is just 25-23 (which is why I don't play sides), Favs 12-14, Dogs 13-9. The play I referenced above finished at 11-4, Favs 5-4 Dogs 6-0-1. And when I have games that grade out at 10 or >, it's 6-1, Favs 3-1, Dogs 3-0.
J Madison grades out at 10 or >.
They were 10 or > in two other games this season, and they're 2-0 ATS.
I'll aim for 3-0.
Buys:
J Madison -14
After doing my usual Saturday morning updates, I have some adjustments due to line changes.
Davidson game comes off the board, no play.
Due to the line jump to -15', J Mad is still a play, but no longer fits the higher qualifier, only grades out at 8' now, a 5-4 record on these spots.
N Dak now qualifies too, but grades out at only 5', a 12-14 record on those spots.
On the plus side, buying J Mad early in the week was the right move as we got a good # at -14.
After doing my usual Saturday morning updates, I have some adjustments due to line changes.
Davidson game comes off the board, no play.
Due to the line jump to -15', J Mad is still a play, but no longer fits the higher qualifier, only grades out at 8' now, a 5-4 record on these spots.
N Dak now qualifies too, but grades out at only 5', a 12-14 record on those spots.
On the plus side, buying J Mad early in the week was the right move as we got a good # at -14.
Recap: 0-1
Record: 13-4 totals; 0-1 sides (and that is an example of why I play only Ov/Un's.)
J Madison blew a nice a halftime lead, but was still getting me a push at -14 until I got back-doored with 8 seconds left in the game. This, after their safety dropped an easy INT two plays before that which would have ended the game.
I thought buying early in the week was the right move, getting JM at -14 (grading out to 10 or >) but the opposite was true because by game time they were -17', which graded out to a diff of just 7'. With that pt differential it no longer qualifies as a play and would be taken off my board.
The only total I had, Davidson Ov, came off my board when the line moved up. I should have bought that one early - it went Ov by about 21 pts.
With only five games on the schedule, I really didn't expect to get anything this week, BUT . . . I have two spots:
N Dak/J Madison Un 53 and S Ill/S Dak St Un 54'
Unders finished the season at 13-9, 59%
REALLY don't like the N Dak/J Mad #, so much so that I may fade it and take the Ov.
S Dak St defense is world's better than SE LA, but still not crazy taking an Un at 54' in a S Ill game after they and SE LA topped 100 pts two weeks back, and they hit 65 vs a decent Weber D last week.
None of these four teams have qualified as an Un for this season, so I have no team records to look at.
No buys, yet.
Recap: 0-1
Record: 13-4 totals; 0-1 sides (and that is an example of why I play only Ov/Un's.)
J Madison blew a nice a halftime lead, but was still getting me a push at -14 until I got back-doored with 8 seconds left in the game. This, after their safety dropped an easy INT two plays before that which would have ended the game.
I thought buying early in the week was the right move, getting JM at -14 (grading out to 10 or >) but the opposite was true because by game time they were -17', which graded out to a diff of just 7'. With that pt differential it no longer qualifies as a play and would be taken off my board.
The only total I had, Davidson Ov, came off my board when the line moved up. I should have bought that one early - it went Ov by about 21 pts.
With only five games on the schedule, I really didn't expect to get anything this week, BUT . . . I have two spots:
N Dak/J Madison Un 53 and S Ill/S Dak St Un 54'
Unders finished the season at 13-9, 59%
REALLY don't like the N Dak/J Mad #, so much so that I may fade it and take the Ov.
S Dak St defense is world's better than SE LA, but still not crazy taking an Un at 54' in a S Ill game after they and SE LA topped 100 pts two weeks back, and they hit 65 vs a decent Weber D last week.
None of these four teams have qualified as an Un for this season, so I have no team records to look at.
No buys, yet.
They screwed me last week, but I like them in this spot, at this number. And I'm going to give them a second chance.
They turned slacker in the second half last week, could have cost them. I expect better clock management and clock control, and I expect to get a full effort for full four quarters this week.
There are a couple houses still at 2' but -3 is the number most people can get today, so that's what I'll use here.
Buys:
J Madison - 3.
They screwed me last week, but I like them in this spot, at this number. And I'm going to give them a second chance.
They turned slacker in the second half last week, could have cost them. I expect better clock management and clock control, and I expect to get a full effort for full four quarters this week.
There are a couple houses still at 2' but -3 is the number most people can get today, so that's what I'll use here.
Buys:
J Madison - 3.
Agree if goin JM now at 3 is the best time....W games on real ESPN and nothin else exciting on i think we can expect the fan favs to get bet up prekick... could see it slam back, ND the fav on both sagrin and massy but think that'll be a real late move, maybe wont happen at all w duke dollars expected i mean at 3 in a home playoff how could there not be .. twice as many students and they're all 100x more football rabbid than yer average SEC school.. lol...
Agree if goin JM now at 3 is the best time....W games on real ESPN and nothin else exciting on i think we can expect the fan favs to get bet up prekick... could see it slam back, ND the fav on both sagrin and massy but think that'll be a real late move, maybe wont happen at all w duke dollars expected i mean at 3 in a home playoff how could there not be .. twice as many students and they're all 100x more football rabbid than yer average SEC school.. lol...
Bridge,
It's a tough call, similar teams, similar execution, similar qualities. I give just a slight edge to James Madison, but I could easily make the case for taking the three points also. I'm just hoping that the winning edge will be found in James Madison's lackluster performance in the second half last week, hoping they learned something from it, hoping it reminds them to stay focused all four quarters this week.
Good luck to you today...
Bridge,
It's a tough call, similar teams, similar execution, similar qualities. I give just a slight edge to James Madison, but I could easily make the case for taking the three points also. I'm just hoping that the winning edge will be found in James Madison's lackluster performance in the second half last week, hoping they learned something from it, hoping it reminds them to stay focused all four quarters this week.
Good luck to you today...
Recap: 1-0
Record: 14-5
NAILED that sucker, as J Mad was in control the entire game. It played out as if I wrote the script: ball control, clock control, wear out the N. Dak defense, lure the safeties in with the run, setting them up for mid-range and deep passes, solid defense for 4 quarters, no slacking off in the second half like the previous week. Easily the best investment I made this season.
From last week: "REALLY don't like the N Dak/J Mad #, so much so that I may fade it and take the Ov."
I don't like fading Unders in college football as they usually have my highest W %, but that was the right call as the game did go Over.
This week, only one qualifying spot, J Mad/S Houston Ov 47
Overs finished the year 17-15 for a small profit, not a high enough W % for me to invest in here.
I'll likely have some action for fun, not sure on what - side or total - small money though, and no buy recommendations.
Odds are I won't have anything that qualifies as a play in the championship game, so I finish Spring football at 14-5 (73%) posted here.
Looking forward to the upcoming FBS season.
Good luck to all this weekend.
See ya in August . . .
Recap: 1-0
Record: 14-5
NAILED that sucker, as J Mad was in control the entire game. It played out as if I wrote the script: ball control, clock control, wear out the N. Dak defense, lure the safeties in with the run, setting them up for mid-range and deep passes, solid defense for 4 quarters, no slacking off in the second half like the previous week. Easily the best investment I made this season.
From last week: "REALLY don't like the N Dak/J Mad #, so much so that I may fade it and take the Ov."
I don't like fading Unders in college football as they usually have my highest W %, but that was the right call as the game did go Over.
This week, only one qualifying spot, J Mad/S Houston Ov 47
Overs finished the year 17-15 for a small profit, not a high enough W % for me to invest in here.
I'll likely have some action for fun, not sure on what - side or total - small money though, and no buy recommendations.
Odds are I won't have anything that qualifies as a play in the championship game, so I finish Spring football at 14-5 (73%) posted here.
Looking forward to the upcoming FBS season.
Good luck to all this weekend.
See ya in August . . .
Thanks Bridge, the same to you.
I had a good time comparing notes and hunting for W's with you this FCS season, hoping to do the same when FBS rolls around.
MLB Record: 0-0
SF+130,
Balt +145
Min -110 (gm 1)
Thanks Bridge, the same to you.
I had a good time comparing notes and hunting for W's with you this FCS season, hoping to do the same when FBS rolls around.
MLB Record: 0-0
SF+130,
Balt +145
Min -110 (gm 1)
College football is where I have the most success and make my largest wagers, but I'm doing well with MLB so I want to try to start sharing that here, too. Here's how I 'cap - I track 7-8 different systems I developed through the years. Once the database has enough games logged, I eliminate the ones that are worthless and focus on the ones that have value. With two months of data accumualted, it's time to start investing. This year, I'll use the following three situational plays for the remainder of this year. (The initials are name tags I use to refer to each play, so I don't have to type "Play#1" etc. every day.)
Play #1 (GP): 49-32
Play #2 (WF): 132-148
Play #3 (BB): 65-50
At first glance you'd dismiss WF spots due to the record, but it's my highest earner. It uses nothing but dogs, and a $100 bettor's net would be +$3,899
GP spots are at +$2,200, BB +$1,231
Just like I did with my FCS posts above, I'll post all plays that qualify each day. I don't play them all, I post them for record keeping purposes and in case anyone is looking for an additional angle on a game. The ones I buy will be at the end of each day's posts.
Here at covers I'm at 1-2, -$80 for MLB.
I'll start posting plays this weekend or Monday at the latest. I'll post MLB here so that all my sports are in one thread.
And the ride begins . . .
College football is where I have the most success and make my largest wagers, but I'm doing well with MLB so I want to try to start sharing that here, too. Here's how I 'cap - I track 7-8 different systems I developed through the years. Once the database has enough games logged, I eliminate the ones that are worthless and focus on the ones that have value. With two months of data accumualted, it's time to start investing. This year, I'll use the following three situational plays for the remainder of this year. (The initials are name tags I use to refer to each play, so I don't have to type "Play#1" etc. every day.)
Play #1 (GP): 49-32
Play #2 (WF): 132-148
Play #3 (BB): 65-50
At first glance you'd dismiss WF spots due to the record, but it's my highest earner. It uses nothing but dogs, and a $100 bettor's net would be +$3,899
GP spots are at +$2,200, BB +$1,231
Just like I did with my FCS posts above, I'll post all plays that qualify each day. I don't play them all, I post them for record keeping purposes and in case anyone is looking for an additional angle on a game. The ones I buy will be at the end of each day's posts.
Here at covers I'm at 1-2, -$80 for MLB.
I'll start posting plays this weekend or Monday at the latest. I'll post MLB here so that all my sports are in one thread.
And the ride begins . . .
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