Ohio, Vatech and why

3-0 after hitting Sjose st. It's all about the outcomes.  Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:

            Ohio  43  63  97  144     (241)

6.5  Monroe  34  73 62  86        (148) 

the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning ohio is only better in 1 category, Total defense.  If you have read my posts - this is a similar situation as yesterdays game - however, there are a couple of things that stand out  1. The spread on the game is 6.5 2. Ohio has a composite of 241. 3. Monroe has a composite of 148. Yesterdays game - the composite was bad but not this bad.   When the composites of these teams are this high - and vegas has ohio only at 6.5 -  often you will see the underdog keep it close. In this pattern - history is on the side of  Ohio.  I'm going with Ohio and the points. 

Also, I like Va tech - will try to comeback later for minn/tt. 

Good luck all. 

      

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2-0 after cmich came thru.  Let's look at some numbers and discuss:

      Bowlgn    87  7  76  136     (212)

7.5 Sjosest    30   28  30 75      (105)

the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. To help me track trends I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is a 1 B / 3 situation - meaning BG is only better in Total def.  Based on bowl games in the past typically the 1 B team wins or covers these games (there's been 24 games played since 2009 with this similar scenario - different lines but these scenarios 2 ties, 15 1 B teams that covered or won outright and 7 favorites that have won.  Percentage wise you would think it's best to go with BG, however, the main reason for going with Sjosest. -   If the 1 B team has a composite in the 200's which BG does - take the 3 team - thus i'm on Sjose St.

Folks have asked about over/unders - i don't track them - thus i don't bet them - my lean would be under.  Good luck all.

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1-0 after smu crushed and won out right.   Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:

      Cmich     67 94   119    121       (240)

6    Wky      72  23    80      104      (184)

My first rhetorical question - why are these teams in a bowl game with composites of 240 and 180. Anyways, the data above reflects ranks for - Total off.  Total Def.  Sagarin Rank, Sagarin Sched strength.  The numbers in ( )  are composites of the sagarin ranks. 

I label each category A B C D.  What we have here is what I call a 1 A / 3 situation - meaning - Cmich is only better in Total off.

The line opened at Wky -6 - currently hovering around 6.5. 

During the season, very often you will see a lot of upsets when this is the pattern, however, you have to consider this is a neutral site for both teams.  Thus I've looked at previous bowl games since 2009 - with this scenario, typically when the underdog has a composite of 200 or more the line is a double digit for the favorite.   And very often the team that has the best sagarin composite comes out on top/covers.  

However, i'm not having a warm fuzzy regarding wky.  I recognize on paper cmich sucks and wky is clearly better (not by too much) - but the oddsmakers made wky a 6 pt favorite - why not higher - I know I know - playing in mich etc.  but still 6 pts.

The other thing - during the season wky played middle ten st -147 - composite for wky and 211 composite for midd. ten - middle ten won out right.     In other games during the season, very often the 200 team usually loses big.  Indicates, they may play down to the compettition. This was the only game where I saw the the 200 team win outright.  I'm on Cmich. tonite even thought they have a composite of 240. Don't go crazy, plenty more opportunities await.  Good luck all.     

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Let's look at some numbers and then discuss:

          SMU   95 66  78  93          (171)

12.5   Fres.   14 19   40 98          (138)

Fresno opens at 12.5, currently around 12.5 (donbest.com).  

Simply looking at the numbers one may say Fres. dominates in total off and total def. they have a better sagarin rank and are almost tied when it comes to sched. strength - thus my money is on Fres...........hold up grasshopper.

In order to get a sense of who to take in this game - you have to compare this scenario with games played previously in other bowl games (to ensure the neutral field is considered).  Looking at my data from previous seasons - their have been a limited number of similar scenarios along with a spread the same or close to 12.5 - but they indicated take the points.  Thus i'm on SMU.  I wish everyone a merry xmas, holiday etc. and a happy new year. 

I'm not sold on simply looking at consensus and doing the opposite or joining the band wagon- but I do ask myself the question - if I had to bet a life changing amount - would fres. do it for me tonite - my answer - I doubt it.  Good luck all.

Love it

Monroe it is.

On Ohio gl to us

Vatech 

Does your data figure in the x- factors....homefield advantage for ULM and the superior athletes they have?

You may be on to something here.  I see a lot of peeps on ULM because of home field advantage....  How did they turn out for DUKE (N. Carolina) and UCLA (San Diego)?  Also, a lot of peeps are jumping on the small ML for Rutgers.  Rutgers wanted a BCS game, they may not be as motivated here.  I am leaning VT with you.  Good luck today! 

on ULM and Rutgers    Rutgers Defense will stuff VaTech.

I was thinking these are "Overlook Games"  Ohio is not a very efficient team and thus Ulm may not be mentally ready and have been enjoying the bowl festivites a little too much

Does anyone know, is TheBuddah the same capper as DaBuddha?

ASR, your opinions are better than mine..  I am thinking that ULM will have the same result as WKENT did in their 1st ever bowl game.  CMU is not good by any stretch, but they have been there and done that.  Same situation here, OHIO is far from good, but they do have experience.  Then again, these are just my crappy opinions...

Minnesota:
Passing: Max Shortell (853)
Rushing: Donnell Kirkwood (848)
Receiving: Derrick Engel (267)

Texas Tech:
Passing: Seth Doege (3934)
Rushing: Kenny Williams (779)
Receiving: Eric Ward (974)

Somebody.....explain how MINN has a shot? Pls explain it as if I'm a six year old. And draw stick figures to illustrate if necessary.

ULM just too athletic....too skilled....and too quick for Ohio. Maybe if Bobcats had 11 Tettletons....but they don't.

ULM 31

OH 17

All steel - I figure the linemakers take that into consideration - I just try to follow the patterns based on previous scenarios/results - mimic history.

Puck - i'm not  dabuddah  

Billysims - what I've realized is after many lossess of using gut feel and simply looking at what's on paper to make a decision - sports don't work that way - so the system I use attempts to take the gut feel out of it and simply go with the pattern. 

When I was in college in 1986 - we use to do the opposite of what everybody else did - won a ton - then I tried to do that in 1989 - lost my behind - then I looked at data but realized if u do everything on paper u still lose - now it's a percentage thing - if I hover and make a few great - is this guaranteed of course not but percentage wise I think we have a good shot with ohio and va tech.

indiobear - that thought crossed my mind as well - but once again simply looking at the numbers - I think ohio can keep this close and possibly when su. 

Thanks for the well wishes - good luck all.

TheBuddha,

Isn't Minn/TTech game a similar scenario as SMU/Fresno St?

However, there are some angles to consider when comparing both games.

1) Game is in Texas/June Jones going back to Hawaii

2) Minny can't score/SMU proved many times they could score

What do you think about this game?

TheBuddha,

Isn't Minn/TTech game a similar scenario as SMU/Fresno St?

However, there are some angles to consider when comparing both games.

1) Game is in Texas/June Jones going back to Hawaii

2) Minny can't score/SMU proved many times they could score

What do you think about this game?

TheBuddha,

Isn't Minn/TTech game a similar scenario as SMU/Fresno St?

However, there are some angles to consider when comparing both games.

1) Game is in Texas/June Jones going back to Hawaii

2) Minny can't score/SMU proved many times they could score

What do you think about this game?

Bank it

Humilde - they are different scenarios -  1 B/ 3 vice 1 D/3 for Smu.  The field, june jones return etc are warm fuzzies - at the end of the day it's the players and their will to win - if those things come into play and have any validity - the oddsmakers would display that in the line - thus I don't get hung up on that nor injuires - unless it's the qb.  When you analyze a game - you have to consider the opening line and then let your system (whatever it is) derive at who to take.  Still getting my data together on that one - will post later.

Like I said before there is a madness to your theory!!!!

Thank you Buddha. Going by your theory this game is very much alike the SMU(although Minny isn't a 200+ team) game but...I'll wait for your analysis...