NCAA Week Ten Ponderings

I'm on a nice two week run (10-0-1 ATS) after a tough first half of the season. Here's a list of games I'm looking at this week with the current lines. Home teams in CAPS.

Thursday, Oct. 30th

Tulane -5' UTSA - The Green Wave have a massive showdown at Memphis next week, but they better not look past a desperate Roadrunners team that needs two more wins to qualify for a bowl. Jeff Traylor's teams always finish strong. UTSA is 20-5 SU in its' last five games of the season, including 14-0 at home! Home dog is the play here.

Friday, Oct. 31st

Memphis -14 RICE - The Tigers are off a HUGE Homecoming win over USF, with another huge game with Tulane on deck. Rice is 3-1 ATS as a double digit dog, including last week's double overtime win and cover over UConn.

SYRACUSE -2' North Carolina - The Tar Heels have shown a pulse the last two weeks, losing by three at Cal and in OT vs. Virginia. The Orange haven't been the same since their upset of Clemson, when QB Steve Angeli was lost for the year. They're 0-4 since, losing by average score of 35-13.

More later.

Saturday early games

UCONN -11' Uab - The Blazers are off a bye, and may have caught Memphis in a look ahead spot two weeks ago, when they stunned the Tigers, 31-24, as a 23' point dog (outgained Memphis 470 yards to 362, rushed for 219 on 41 carries). But UAB also may have found new life behind interim HC Alex Mortenson and new starting QB Ryder Burton (20 of 27 for 251 yards, three TDs). The Huskies are off a 37-34 double OT loss at Rice, and allowed 300 yards rushing in the process. Might have to "Ryde" with the Blazers here.

OHIO ST. -20' Penn St. - Number seems a mite high, but who knows what to expect from the Nittany Lions with an interim HC and a frosh QB making his second start against the best defense in the country. I'm not stepping in front of the Buckeyes here.

Miami FL -12' SMU - This is the first game outside the state of Florida for the Hurricanes. The Mustangs are off a last second,13-12, loss at Wake, which snapped their 11 game ACC win streak since joining the conference a year ago. Both teams allow less than three yards a carry in the run game, and both teams can rush the passer. With both teams having one conference loss, this is probably an elimination game.

NORTH TEXAS -6' Navy - The Midshipmen are 17-3 SU over the last two years (7-0 this year), and they come into this one as a dog for the first time this season. The Mean Green have yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record, and were blown out at home by USF. They also struggled to a 45-38 OT win at Army, allowing the Black Knights to rally from a 21-0 deficit. Navy is better than Army.

TEXAS -3 Vanderbilt - The Commodores are 11-3 ATS  as a dog in their last 14 tries, 8-1 on the road. I'm not gonna fade that, but the road weary Longhorns return home for the first time in over a month. For all the talk about their defense, they've given up 838 combined yards in a pair of OT wins at Kentucky and Mississippi St. Maybe that will change with some home cooking. QB Arch Manning may or may not play.

BAYLOR -3' Ucf - The Knights are better than their 4-3 record (1-3 in the Big 12). They're 6-1 ITS (in the stats) and rush for 208 yards a game (5.8 YPR). Meanwhile the 4-4 Bears are 1-6 ATS , including 0-5 vs. the Big 12. And against FBS competition they're allowing 36 points and 432 yards a game, including 204 YPG rushing (4.8). I think the wrong team is favored here.

Saturday afternoon 

Georgia -7' Florida (Jacksonville) - With Billy Napier as coach, the Gators lost to the Bulldogs in all three meetings by scores of 42-20, 43-20 and 34-20. But now Napier is gone and there's no telling how Florida will respond in this one, but the line seems a mite short. I don't see Georgia losing this.

Texas Tech -7 KANSAS ST. - Six games into the season the Red Raiders were looking like they'd win the Big 12 in a runaway, but an injury to QB Behren Morton led to an upset loss at ASU, and last week against Oklahoma St. they lost backup Will Hammond for the season. The good news is, Morton is back for this huge game in Manhattan vs. the resurgent Wildcats. K St. has won three of its' last four games (4-0 ATS) after a 1-3 start, averaging about 38 points a contest. TTU looks to snap an eight game series losing streak, but Morton has to stay in the game.

BOISE ST. -17' Fresno St. - With the Bulldogs off two blowout losses there's no line value here. The Broncos had their hands full at Nevada last week, their offensive line is being pushed around and leading receiver Chris Marshall is suspended for this game. This one is a hard pass for me.

Indiana -21 MARYLAND - The undefeated Hoosiers are giving up a boatload of points here, but damn these guys are good! The Terrapins have dropped their last three (3-0 ATS, 0-3 ITS) by a grand total of ten points, but I'm not stepping in front of Indiana.

Pittsburgh -14' STANFORD - Ever since the Panthers decided to go with frosh Mason Heintschel at QB  they've been an offensive machine. They've won four straight games (4-0 ATS, and ITS), averaging over 41 points a game, and are in the running for an ACC title. But this is a long road trip, and the Cardinal will be a tricky out at home, where they are 3-0 SU.  

Virginia -5' CALIFORNIA - The Cavaliers have won six straight, but they've been living dangerously with three of their last four games going into OT and the fourth one was a narrow escape over Wazzu. They're also 0-4 ITS during that stretch, and now are on their second straight road trip, and a long road trip at that. The Golden Bears need one more win for bowl eligibility, but it's worth noting they gave up 357 yards rushing in a double OT loss at Virginia Tech last week.

ARKANSAS -4' Mississippi St. - The hard luck Bulldogs have lost four straight, twice in OT and another by a mere two points, but they've been a money maker going 6-1 ATS this season. This is their best chance to end a 16 game drought in the SEC. Their last win came in 2023 against these same Razorbacks. Could be a case of deja vu, with Arkansas on a six game losing streak, allowing 40 points a game. Missy St. has played just one bad game all season. 

@D-Town

Saturday evening 

OLE MISS -12' South Carolina - The Gamecocks have disappointed this season, but played both Mizzou and LSU tough on the road, and gave Alabama a HUGE scare at home last week in a 29-22 loss. The Rebels are solidly in the CFP mix at 7-1, but as good as they are, six of their eight games have been decided by eight points or less. 

SAN DIEGO ST. -10' Wyoming - The Cowboys are off a 28-0 win against a bad Colorado St. team, but they've been hit and miss all season. I'm far more impressed with the Aztecs, off a 23-0 shutout at Fresno St. Since being blown out at Wazzu in Week Two, they've gone 5-0 SU, ATS and ITS, with four of their five wins by 21 points or more. Lay it if you play it.

Georgia Tech -5' NC STATE - The ACC figures to get a massive shakeup after this week's games with the top teams hitting the road against teams capable of pulling an upset. That includes this game. The Yellow Jackets haven't looked dominant on the road and the Wolfpack COULD be dangerous on Homecoming. 

FLORIDA ST. -10' Wake Forest - I love the job first year coach Jake Dickert is doing with the Demon Deacons. They're getting better by the week and are off a 13-12 upset win over SMU, overcoming five turnovers and holding the Mustangs to just 246 total yards. They've covered their last four games (3-1 SU), and get this; they're 2-2 in ACC play, which is one more conference win than the Seminoles have had in the last two years (1-11, and have lost nine straight, including 0-4 SU and ATS this season)! It's Homecoming in Tallahassee and I'm not sure it's gonna be a happy one.

TENNESSEE -3 Oklahoma - On one hand we have a fairly resistable force (Oklahoma's offense) vs. a moveable object (Tennessee's defense). On the other hand we have an irresistible force (the Vols' offense) vs. a fairly immovable object (the Sooners' defense). Tough call in this one.

Usc -4' NEBRASKA - Under Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are 0-10 ATS as chalk outside the state of California. The Cornhuskers are a flawed team, but have scored at least 27 points in six of their eight games. If they do that here they have a good chance at an upset.

UTAH -10 Cincinnati - At first glance I was leaning towards the Bearcats, but with Evan Pryor, their top RB out, and with the late 10:30 Eastern start time for Cincy I'm gonna let this one go, even though they ARE 3-0 ATS on the road this year. With two conference losses this is a must win for the Utes.

SAN JOSE ST. -1' Hawaii - The Rainbow Warriors are 6-2 SU, 6-1 ATS and 7-1 ITS. In MWC play they've covered all four as a dog, including outright wins at Air Force, home against Utah St. and at Colorado St. The Spartans have just ONE win vs. a FBS team. Hawaii is the better team getting points. Seems like a no brainer to me.

As always thoughts and opinions are welcome! BOL!

Nice job. I love UCF, first game I bet this week. Just added Stanford too. At first I didnt want to step in front of Indiana but decided to risk it. 

Good luck brotha 

@Yanasaur

Good luck to you too my friend! 

Would Utah -7' be a play for you?

@befus

 Would be a lean is all.