NCAA Week 9 Ponderings

I'm a little late getting this thread up. Family stuff going on  Just a few short and sweet thoughts on some games I'm looking at this week. Home teams in CAPS. All games being played on Saturday.

Smu -3 WAKE FOREST - Bad spot for the Mustangs, off a huge revenge win at Clemson with Miami on deck. The Demon Deacons are off a bye and on a 3-0 ATS run, including back to back impressive road wins. It's Homecoming in Winston-Salem.

KANSAS -3 Kansas St. - Both teams are off a bye, with the Jayhawks looking to end a 16 game series losing streak, all as an underdog. Here they're favored, perhaps with good reason.

NEBRASKA -7' Northwestern - Since their season opening loss at Tulane the Wildcats have been getting better by the week. They're 3-1 SU, ATS and ITS (in the stats) in Big Ten play, while the Cornhuskers are are 0-5 ATS vs. Power Four opponents, including 0-4 as chalk. Oh, and QB Dillon Raiola has been sacked 25 times in those games.

OKLAHOMA -5' Ole Miss - Brutal spot for the Rebels, off a tough loss at Georgia and now facing, perhaps, the top defense in the country. The Sooners look to avenge last season's 26-14 loss in Oxford, but I'm not convinced QB john Mateer is completely recovered from his hand surgery.

Usf -4' MEMPHIS - I'm not sure who will be behind center for the Tigers. This line suggests starter Brendon Lewis won't play after being hurt early in the second half of their 31-24 loss at UAB. It might not matter. The Bulls are pretty damn good! (On a side note keep an eye on the Blazers going forward since their coaching change. They have a bye this week). 

ARKANSAS -1' Auburn - The road team has covered the last six in this series, but it's hard to trust the Tigers after two incredibly brutal losses. I think they're the better team here, but...........

UConn -10' RICE - Long road trip for the Huskies off their huge road win at Boston College. The Owls are off a bye and looking to avenge a pair of seven point losses the last two years.

WASHINGTON -4' Illinois - The Illini are off a bye and are 12-2 ATS as a conference road dog under Bret Bielema. But the Huskies are 5-1 SU and ATS at home vs. conference foes under Jedd Fisch. 

IOWA ST. -2' Byu - Feels like the wrong team MAY be favored here, but the Cougars are off a huge upset win over arch rival Utah (despite outgained by 103 total yards), and the Cyclones had a bye last week following two tough losses on the road. The 'Clones come into this game rested and hungry.

NIU -5' Ball St. - The Cardinals have won the last three meetings, all as a dog, and the last six have been decided by six points or less. The Huskies are 0-6 SU and ITS, and are 1-5 ATS this season vs. FBS competition! So can somebody, ANYBODY, tell me why the hell they're favored?

VANDERBILT -2' Missouri - The Tigers are on the road for the second straight week following their double OT win at Auburn, and they're just 1-17 SU vs. top ten SEC teams. And this just in: the Commodores are ranked #10 in the country! I really like both of these teams, and both of them won for me last week. Vandy HC Clark Lea has yet to beat Mizzou in four tries, but he's 3-1 ATS, including a 30-27 loss in Columbia a year ago. Got a feeling Diego Pavia and the 'Dores might get it done this time around.

WASHINGTON ST. -1' Toledo - In the last two weeks the Cougars have lost at Ole Miss and at Virginia by a combined five points! Seems like they ought to be laying a few more here, except that the Rockets are 7-1 ATS as road pups since 2021.

Texas -7 MISSISSIPPI ST. - Including the Red River showdown, the Longhorns have been away from home the entire month of October. This is their fourth straight road game, and they needed overtime to escape Lexington last week, a game in which Kentucky outgained Texas 395 total yards to just 179! The 'Horns are 0-3 ATS in true road games this season, and the Bulldogs are a live home dog here. Missy St. has lost their last three games, but for the season they're a money making 5-1 ATS, including 3-0 at home. It's Homecoming in Starksville and the cowbells are gonna be noisy.

Texas A&M -2' LSU - The Aggies haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1994 and are 1-6 ATS as road chalk over the last two years. This is their second straight on the road after struggling to beat Arkansas last week. The Bayou Bengals, under HC Brian Kelly, are 13-1 SU at home in night games (lost to Alabama last season), and overall are 13-5 ATS at home since he's been there. With the Crimson Tide on deck this is a must win for LSU if they have any hope of making the playoff field. 

Michigan -14' MICHIGAN ST.- Sparty isn't very good but they are 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog, and if there's a game on the schedule that they are bound to get up for it's this one. Wouldn't be surprised if "Little Brother" hangs around in this one.

As always, thoughts and opinions are welcome and encouraged.

Forgot about this one

Tennessee -8' KENTUCKY - The Volunteers have covered the last six in Lexington, and 10 of the last 11, BUT the last four of those has been decided by six points or less. The Vols are on the road again after dropping one at Alabama, and in four SEC contests are allowing an average of 437.3 yards and 36.5 points a game. The Wildcats don't have that kind of firepower, but they're much better at home than on the road. They hung with Ole Miss in Week Two, losing by seven, and last week had 395 total yards against the vaunted Texas defense in a 16-13 loss in OT. 

Another note on the Ole Miss - Oklahoma game. I forgot to include the distraction factor, with Lane Kiffin being mentioned as a candidate to replace Billy Napier at Florida. We all saw how a similar distraction affected Nebraska last week with the Matt Rhule to Penn St. speculation. Boomer might be the way to go here, but John Mateer will have to have his "A" game.

On NIU -5 over Ball St, I am struggling to find the justification as well.

Only things I can come up with is how poorly Ball St has been on the road this year (0-4 SU) and out scored 28-146 but the competition has been better than NIU (Purdue, Auburn, UConn and WMU). NIU has played games in this series close and perhaps they have some revenge in a rivalry series that will end after this year.  Tough to justify though - line looks really stinky.

@MalaysiaHorn

I think I'll leave that game alone, but definitely leaning Testicle St. BOL this weekend! 

GL this weekend 

@mjm1012

 You too! 

Some further thoughts on Texas A&M v. LSU - The combined  history with these two teams sez take the home team, and I'm still leaning that way. But fundamentally, the Aggies are playing better all the way around. The Tigers' offensive line has been a problem all season, and LT Tyree Adams is out for this game. LSU hasn't been able to run consistently and QB Garrett Nussmeier has struggled. And on defense, star LB Whit Weeks is doubtful to play. Again, the history sez take LSU, and they are BY FAR the more desperate team. I just don't know if that's enough reason to back them here.

@Boisestateand8

 Im big on Rice this week. I like Wake and Memphis too. 

I did get off Ole Miss, I'm glad you said something I just mistyped in my thread. I actually added a little more to Miss State. 

Good luck brotha 

@Yanasaur

 BOL to you too mah man! 

Another game that caught my eye

CINCINNATI -3' Baylor - i normally avoid home favs in Homecoming games, but the Bearcats are 20-5 this century in such games. The Bears are giving up over 31 points and over 400 yards a game, including 180 on the ground (4.4.YPR). Good luck trying to slow down Brendan Sorsby (1718 yards passing with 17 TD passes and just one interception) and the Bearcats' offense, which rushes for about 185 yards a game at 6.1 YPR! Actually, BOTH teams can move the ball, but I trust Cincy's bend but don't break D more than Baylor's. The Bears are also -7 in net turnovers. No official plays yet, but definitely leaning Cincinnati.

Not sure who will suit up at QB for Wake. Starter Robbie Ashford missed the last game at Oregon St. but Deshawn Purdie bombed the Beavers for 270 yards and four TD passes in relief. I'm really liking the job Jake Dickert is doing with this team. They're getting better by the week. 

Thanks for the write ups! With you on Miss state, vandy, wash, and Cincy! Good luck! 

@pointnshoot24

 I'm not on the Huskies, or the Illini either for that matter. Too close to call. But yeah I like the other three. BOL bud! 

The line movement suggests Brendon Lewis isn't playing for Memphis, but wow! +6' now! If it hits seven I might have to snap the rubber band. 

Always love your insight. GL this weekend

Boise St. -21 NEVADA  O/U 50' - This is a big spread. Not sure I wanna lay it, but it feels like the Broncos could score 40 or 50 all by themselves. I'm not a totals player but it's hard to see how this one doesn't go over.

@CusDAmato1

 BOL to you too my friend! 

The line has flipped in the Toledo v. Washington St. game. The Rockets are now favored. Weird game. 

And THIS why I don't play totals.