NCAA Week 13 Ponderings

Getting this thread up a little earlier because of a key game tonight. Lighter slate this week. Home teams in CAPS. 

Wednesday, Nov. 19th

Miami OH -2' BUFFALO - I don't get why this line hasn't dropped with the news of Redhawks QB Dequan Finn bailing on his team to get ready for the NFL. Is this kid even good enough to play on Sundays? Its gotta be a gut punch for Miami, with both teams still in the running to play for a MAC title. I'm leaning Buffalo in this one, but it's just a lean. 

More later.

Finn has been out a couple games, this was not new news.

@Boisestateand8

 I don't anything whatsoever about the kid but anyone who does that to their team should be banned for at least a year. 

What NFL team wants someone like that?    

@pjlvio

 Actually just ONE game. The backup was horrible against Toledo last week, and I'm surprised Buffalo wasn't favored here. 

Here's the rest of the Week 13 slate. Every one of these games means SOMETHING. Here are the current lines with the home teams in CAPS.

Friday, Nov. 21st

Florida St. -6' NC STATE - Both teams are 5-5 and needing one more win to be bowl eligible. There's value in this line if you like the Wolfpack, with the Seminoles off a 34-14 rout over Virginia Tech at home, and the Pack off a 41-7 blowout loss at Miami. Seems like a big number to cover for the 'Noles, given that they're 0-8 SU on the road since the start of last season, and NC State is 7-1-1 as a home dog since 2020 with six outright wins, including a 48-36 upset of Georgia Tech three weeks ago.

UNLV -2' Hawaii - These two are part of a five way tie for second place in the MWC. The Rebels have the better offense, the Rainbow Warriors the better defense. 

Saturday, Nov. 22nd - early games 

Miami FL -18' VIRGINIA TECH - The Hurricanes need a BIG win to impress the CFP selection committee. The Hokies suffered their seventh loss last week so they'll be home for the holidays, but there's an air of excitement in Blacksburg with the recent hire of James Franklin as head coach. I don't see the Hokies mailing this one in, as they'll be auditioning for their new coach. Plus, the weather promises sloppy conditions in just the third road game of the season for Miami. 

IOWA ST. -3' Kansas - Revenge game for the Cyclones, but the Jayhawks need this game more to  go bowling. Iowa St. got their sixth win LAST week, rallying from 11 points down at TCU to beat the Horned Frogs, 20-17, despite being outgained by 164 total yards.

NORTHWESTERN -3' Minnesota - The Golden Gophers are 0-4 SU, ATS and ITS (in the stats) and have been outscored by a combined 152-33, but they ARE bowl eligible. The Wildcats still need just one win to go bowling, and barely missed getting it last week with a last second loss to Michigan.

OKLAHOMA -6' Missouri - The Sooners have owned this series, but lost last year's meeting in Columbia. Mizzou QB Beau Pribula is close to returning, but Matt Zollers is likely to get his third start and will have to avoid mistakes against a ferocious Sooner defense that forced six turnovers in road wins at Tennessee and  Alabama the last two weeks. It's worth noting though that Oklahoma was outgained by 199 combined yards in those games, and the Tigers can also play some defense. Leaning Mizzou, but I liked this game a lot better at +8'.

SMU -2' Louisville - The Cardinals are 3-0 SU, ATS and ITS on the road this year, but can they get up off the mat after back to back gut wrenching losses at home to Cal and Clemson, which ended their ACC title hopes? The Mustangs are off a bye and are 13-1 SU vs. the ACC since joining the conference a year ago, including 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS at home. SMU still has a shot at the conference title if things break right.

JAMES MADISON -13' Washington St. - Third trip back east for the Cougars who nearly won at both Ole Miss and Virginia, and are 5-1 ATS and ITS in their last six games. They're still looking for their sixth win, but it'll be a tough task against the Dukes who are getting better by the week, and are in the mix for the G5 playoff berth.

Old Dominion -10' GEORGIA SOUTHERN -  The Eagles need one more win to go bowling, and are seeking revenge for a pair of losses the last two years. The Monarchs are already bowl eligible and have no shot at the Sun Belt title,.so they'll have to find their motivation elsewhere.

ARIZONA -6' Baylor - The Bears need to win one of their last two, but QB Sawyer Robinson will be facing the Big 12's best pass defense here (159.5 yards a game, 97.1 passer rating). 

Saturday afternoon games

KENNESAW ST. -6' Missouri St. - The Bears are ineligible for the C- USA title, but are petitioning the NCAA for a bowl game. They deserve it. Kenn St. is off a 35-26 loss at Jax St., while outgaining the Gamecocks by 143 yards. Its been a fantastic season for BOTH of these teams.

Duke -6' NORTH CAROLINA - The Blue Devils have face planted since their win at Clemson, and need one more win to go bowling. The Tar Heels' bowl hopes are on life support, and it'd make their season if they're able to avenge last season's 21-20 loss, when they blew a 20-0 lead.

East Carolina -2' UTSA - The Pirates are one of four teams with just one loss in the AAC and have won four straight games, including last week's huge 31-27 win at home over Memphis. The Roadrunners are out of the running for a conference title, and need one more win for a bowl game. But under Jeff Traylor they're 32-4 at home, including an eye popping 17-0 in their last five games of the season. In his last three games UTSA QB Owen McCown has completed 76% of his passes for 876 yards and seven TDs. The Roadrunners are a live home dog here!

VANDERBILT -8' Kentucky - The Wildcats have turned things around after a 2-5 start winning three straight, including upset wins over Auburn and Florida. They still need one more win for a bowl invite, and are in revenge mode after being upset at home by Vandy a year ago. The Commodores are off a bye and still harbor hopes of a CFP berth if they win out, but they've given up a combined 72 points in their last two games, losing at Texas and needing overtime to get past Auburn. The 'Cats could claw their way to at least a cover in this one.

OREGON -10' Usc - This seems like a big number, but the Trojans are 3-12 ATS in true road games outside the state of California under Lincoln Riley, although all three spread wins were as a dog. Both of these teams can score, but the Ducks have a decided advantage on defense allowing well over 100 yards a game less than USC does. Oregon could dominate this game with a run game that averages 233.6 yards a game (6.3 YPR) against a USC defense that allows 145.8 YPG (4.4). The Ducks also excel against the pass allowing opponents to complete just over 50% of their passes for 127.3 yards a game. The Ducks could fly.

Tulane -9' TEMPLE - The Green Wave are one of four teams in the AAC with one loss, and are a G5 frontrunner for the G5 playoff berth. But they rarely blow anybody out, and the Owls are off a much needed bye and hungry for a bowl bid. K.C. Keeler has done a great job with this team and they could be dangerous here.

Michigan -14 MARYLAND - The Wolverines are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games and have Ohio St. on deck, but the Terrapins have lost six straight games and have been outscored by a combined 114-36 in November. Yuck.

TROY -10 Georgia St. - The Trojans laid a 33-0 egg at ODU last week, but are still alive in the Sun Belt East Division after Southern Miss lost last week. Now they just have to win against the hapless Panthers, who are 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS vs. FBS competition and are playing out the string.

HOUSTON -1' Tcu - The Horned Frogs' offense has vanished in their last three games and they were blown out at BYU last week. The Cougars are off a bye and still have a shot at a Big 12 title if things break right. But it's hard to forget that home loss to WVU.

UTAH -17' Kansas St. - The Utes are off three straight blowout wins since losing at BYU, and are still in the running for the Big 12 title. K St. is just trying to get to a bowl game after a disastrous start to the season. They'll have a better shot at it next week vs. Colorado.

Nice job man 

Saturday evening games 

GEORGIA TECH -2' Pittsburgh - HUUUUUGE showdown in the ACC. The Panthers were outclassed at home by Notre Dame in a 37-15 beatdown. Frosh QB Mason Heintschel had his worst day as a starter, throwing for just 126 yards and a pick against the Irish, but the Yellow Jackets' defense isn't anywhere near as good as Notre Dame's. The Rambling Wreck beats you with an offense that averages nearly 500 yards a game, led by superstar QB Haynes King (2259 yards passing, 807 yards rushing). If Georgia Tech wins this they'll play in the ACC title game. If Pitt wins things get messy.

PENN ST. -7' Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are off a bye following the impressive debut of true freshman QB T.J. Lateef, who took over for injured starter Dillon Raiola. At UCLA two weeks ago, Lateef completed 13 of 15 passes for 205 yards and three TDs. The Nittany Lions are also starting a frosh QB. Ethan Grunkemeyer will make his fifth start after taking over for Drew Allar, and led Penn St. to a convincing 28-10 win at Michigan St., snapping a five game losing streak. But even with that win, the Lions are just 1-5 ATS as chalk, and need to win out to get to a bowl game. 

Byu -3 CINCINNATI - The Cougars rebounded from a 29-7 beatdown at Texas Texas Tech with a 44-13 rout of TCU. The Bearcats were blasted at Utah, 45-14, three weeks ago, and after a bye were upset at home by Arizona, 30-24. QB Brendan Sorsby was just 26 of 61 for 375 yards combined in those two losses, with two TD passes and three interceptions. He's too good a QB to have three bad outings in a row. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bearcats bounce back here and create major chaos in the Big 12.

Ohio St. line dropped from -32' to -29', which to me is an indication the Buckeyes will be down their top two receivers today to keep them healthy for Ann Arbor next week. 

To clarify, Minnesota is 0-4 SU, ATS and ITS on the road this year. I omitted the "on the road" part in my game writeup. My bad.

Oklahoma is now down to -5' over Mizzou with the news that Tigers QB Beau Pribula is going to start. Just how healthy he's gonna be is another question entirely. If the Tigers can avoid mistakes they have a chance here. The Sooners don't scare anyone on offense, and have been outgained by a combined 299 yards (instead of the 199 I posted above) in road wins at Tennessee and Alabama the past two weeks. Feels like it could be a regression game for them.

SMU is now -4' over Louisville, jumping a key number. Was leaning Mustangs but I'm passing this one.

JMU is now up to 14' over Wazzu. Tough call here.

Update on afternoon games

ECU is down to -1' over UTSA. I was hoping it would go the other way. Roadrunners are still the play.

Tulane has dropped to -7' over Temple. Was hoping it would go to +10.

Troy is now -9' over Georgia St. I like the Trojans but I'm not sure about their QB situation.