Can't get too high, can't get too low in NCAAF betting. Best to prepare and study and watch too...lots of great cappers in Week #1 as I far as I can tell
Games I am eyeing: - preliminary /no angles yet but quiet leans
Kennesaw @ Indiana
Virginia @ NC St.
Iowa @ Iowa St.
CMU @ Pitt
Ole Miss @ Kentucky
Kansas @ Missouri
Miami Oh @ Rutgers
USF @ Florida
WKU @ Toledo
Ball St @ Auburn
GSouth @ USC
There are a few others....but I will watch the lines and read/weigh in....list above, I will chop down as I go and add as a play once lines are open or might just let them brew through the week. I am doing things differently for sure.
I appreciate all the nice comments and the great cappers who are flooding the forum....looks like a great year is in front of us
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
3
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
9-3 - up good units / profit in exotics
Can't get too high, can't get too low in NCAAF betting. Best to prepare and study and watch too...lots of great cappers in Week #1 as I far as I can tell
Games I am eyeing: - preliminary /no angles yet but quiet leans
Kennesaw @ Indiana
Virginia @ NC St.
Iowa @ Iowa St.
CMU @ Pitt
Ole Miss @ Kentucky
Kansas @ Missouri
Miami Oh @ Rutgers
USF @ Florida
WKU @ Toledo
Ball St @ Auburn
GSouth @ USC
There are a few others....but I will watch the lines and read/weigh in....list above, I will chop down as I go and add as a play once lines are open or might just let them brew through the week. I am doing things differently for sure.
I appreciate all the nice comments and the great cappers who are flooding the forum....looks like a great year is in front of us
I wanted IU -30, but it's -35.5 I wanted Florida -14, but it's -17.5 Damn these bookies I tell you
Sac, there is some TOTALS that we can hack down....and learn on the sides for Week 3....ya, that sucks.
I think Indiana can cover the high line but maybe the UNDER is easier.....Kennesaw with a good defense and proved they can keep their opponents honest ....Indiana should be able to score 6 TDs (3-4 first half, 2-3 second half) and tack on one field goal ....Kennesaw, they should not score more than 10 pts on Indiana...so they are good for 3, 6 ,7, 9 or 10 .... give Indiana 38 pts scored and if crazy TD on special teams or defense...max 45 ..... but I doubt that....Indiana with a soft one in Week 3 so how motivated are they for this one and next week? I am hoping the total climbs over 51
If you believe Indiana will score under 40...take the UNDER?
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
I wanted IU -30, but it's -35.5 I wanted Florida -14, but it's -17.5 Damn these bookies I tell you
Sac, there is some TOTALS that we can hack down....and learn on the sides for Week 3....ya, that sucks.
I think Indiana can cover the high line but maybe the UNDER is easier.....Kennesaw with a good defense and proved they can keep their opponents honest ....Indiana should be able to score 6 TDs (3-4 first half, 2-3 second half) and tack on one field goal ....Kennesaw, they should not score more than 10 pts on Indiana...so they are good for 3, 6 ,7, 9 or 10 .... give Indiana 38 pts scored and if crazy TD on special teams or defense...max 45 ..... but I doubt that....Indiana with a soft one in Week 3 so how motivated are they for this one and next week? I am hoping the total climbs over 51
If you believe Indiana will score under 40...take the UNDER?
@Bixby, no pressure ....tell me what you like too this week.
@Felix .... there are a couple of pinatacandidatesnext week potentially .... you do realize now you ARE my good luck charm. Baseball every day and now games once a week..... this should be easier but at times it is not
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
@Bixby, no pressure ....tell me what you like too this week.
@Felix .... there are a couple of pinatacandidatesnext week potentially .... you do realize now you ARE my good luck charm. Baseball every day and now games once a week..... this should be easier but at times it is not
This is the best Iowa's rank on offense in a long time and their defense has been preseason rated #1, 2 or #3 for a while.....Iowa St is about the same as last year and can move the ball.
The score should be as it usually is....20 - 20 or one team pulls ahead with 24 - 27 pts and the other chases usually successfully.
I am shocked to think, I actually think the OVER is the way to play THIS YEAR @ 42.5 ....OT is possible and if not, I can see a 27 - 20 or 27 - 17 type score in this passion rivalry ...even 23 - 20 would work. Would 24 - 17 likely happen? Possible but I think there are more ways to go over 42.5 with their proficiency on offense then I do the defense dominating on what looks like perfect weather day
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
This is the best Iowa's rank on offense in a long time and their defense has been preseason rated #1, 2 or #3 for a while.....Iowa St is about the same as last year and can move the ball.
The score should be as it usually is....20 - 20 or one team pulls ahead with 24 - 27 pts and the other chases usually successfully.
I am shocked to think, I actually think the OVER is the way to play THIS YEAR @ 42.5 ....OT is possible and if not, I can see a 27 - 20 or 27 - 17 type score in this passion rivalry ...even 23 - 20 would work. Would 24 - 17 likely happen? Possible but I think there are more ways to go over 42.5 with their proficiency on offense then I do the defense dominating on what looks like perfect weather day
- what appears to be a very good offense with a dynamic new QB playing a good defense who has trouble scoring and should not get more than 10....is it unreasonable that Maryland will win 27 - 10 in this game?
Play #2: x Half U > Under 47 ....even if NIU scores 14, I doubt Maryland will score 34-35 points in a loose game and if they do, I have the spread covered. My prediction > 34 - 10 or 38 - 7 (NIU with the 134th rated offense preseason) Maryland has the 47th best defense and allowed 1 TD of offense in game one with FAU who has a better offensive rank
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Week#2 Plays:
Play #1 - Maryland -16.5 x 1U
- one strong defense plays one good defense
- what appears to be a very good offense with a dynamic new QB playing a good defense who has trouble scoring and should not get more than 10....is it unreasonable that Maryland will win 27 - 10 in this game?
Play #2: x Half U > Under 47 ....even if NIU scores 14, I doubt Maryland will score 34-35 points in a loose game and if they do, I have the spread covered. My prediction > 34 - 10 or 38 - 7 (NIU with the 134th rated offense preseason) Maryland has the 47th best defense and allowed 1 TD of offense in game one with FAU who has a better offensive rank
Pick #3 - Pittsburgh Under 52.5 x 1U (I am gonna also hope to take Pitt at -20.5 or -21 ....could take them up to -23)
- CMU pulled a shocker on SJSU ....they are ready for the season
-now they fly all the way east and deal with jetlag playing a much improved Pitt team who have a stronger defense this year than last which was pretty good. CMU offense is rated 128th.....SJSU could not stop the run but Pitt has always been good vs run with Naz coached teams
-I don't see CMU scoring more than last week...probably less
-Pitt, well, they should be able to put up 35 or more here....... 31 - 13 would be bad for my cover ...I see a 34 - 13 score at best for CMU or 31 to 38 vs 7-10 pts only for CMU realistically given the circumstances and in over their heads this week
-even 41 - 10 gets my UNDER
-Holstein is not the type of QB to put up big numbers and last year's numbers show that
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Pick #3 - Pittsburgh Under 52.5 x 1U (I am gonna also hope to take Pitt at -20.5 or -21 ....could take them up to -23)
- CMU pulled a shocker on SJSU ....they are ready for the season
-now they fly all the way east and deal with jetlag playing a much improved Pitt team who have a stronger defense this year than last which was pretty good. CMU offense is rated 128th.....SJSU could not stop the run but Pitt has always been good vs run with Naz coached teams
-I don't see CMU scoring more than last week...probably less
-Pitt, well, they should be able to put up 35 or more here....... 31 - 13 would be bad for my cover ...I see a 34 - 13 score at best for CMU or 31 to 38 vs 7-10 pts only for CMU realistically given the circumstances and in over their heads this week
-even 41 - 10 gets my UNDER
-Holstein is not the type of QB to put up big numbers and last year's numbers show that
I watched the Kennesaw st game and IU game in week 1.
It should be noted that Wake Forest lost their starting RB to injury after their first drive. It made Kennesaw's run D look better than it was most likely. IU's run game is no joke.
The only 2 TD's given up by IU to ODU were long runs by the QB. Kennesaw's QB has wheels as well so that's a slight concern.
But I couldn't imagine that Cignetti isn't aware of this and making it a point of interest this week in practice.
I could only lean towards IU in this game but hate that it opened at that # and has risen slightly all ready.
Good luck this week
1
@Last2thirst
I watched the Kennesaw st game and IU game in week 1.
It should be noted that Wake Forest lost their starting RB to injury after their first drive. It made Kennesaw's run D look better than it was most likely. IU's run game is no joke.
The only 2 TD's given up by IU to ODU were long runs by the QB. Kennesaw's QB has wheels as well so that's a slight concern.
But I couldn't imagine that Cignetti isn't aware of this and making it a point of interest this week in practice.
I could only lean towards IU in this game but hate that it opened at that # and has risen slightly all ready.
@Last2thirst I watched the Kennesaw st game and IU game in week 1. It should be noted that Wake Forest lost their starting RB to injury after their first drive. It made Kennesaw's run D look better than it was most likely. IU's run game is no joke. The only 2 TD's given up by IU to ODU were long runs by the QB. Kennesaw's QB has wheels as well so that's a slight concern. But I couldn't imagine that Cignetti isn't aware of this and making it a point of interest this week in practice. I could only lean towards IU in this game but hate that it opened at that # and has risen slightly all ready. Good luck this week
Good intel bro
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@Last2thirst I watched the Kennesaw st game and IU game in week 1. It should be noted that Wake Forest lost their starting RB to injury after their first drive. It made Kennesaw's run D look better than it was most likely. IU's run game is no joke. The only 2 TD's given up by IU to ODU were long runs by the QB. Kennesaw's QB has wheels as well so that's a slight concern. But I couldn't imagine that Cignetti isn't aware of this and making it a point of interest this week in practice. I could only lean towards IU in this game but hate that it opened at that # and has risen slightly all ready. Good luck this week
-do not be fooled by Ole Piss offensive blast ....they now have to step up and play a pretty darn good defense that held a Toledo team to 10-2 for a long time in their game (start of 4th Q ) before 28 pts erupted in that half.....
-Calzada was held to under 100 yds throwing and I doubt he does much better against a strong Ole Miss defense
-Kentucky will be lucky to score 14-17 pts
-Ole Miss QB Simmons got picked off 2x vs a weak Georgia St defense.... now he steps up vs a very good Kentucky defense?
-Ole Miss will have to navigate their offense in this one a little more conservatively now and so I do see them scoring over 31 most like and if they do....well, that will only force their defense to play that much better with the time they have on the sidelines watching their offense on the field do their job
Worse case: 35 - 14/17
Likely case: 27 -17, 27-14
Like the last two years, this total does not end up with a final score far above 40 pts
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #4 Ole Miss/Kentucky Under 51.5 x 1U
-perception total for sure by Vegas
-do not be fooled by Ole Piss offensive blast ....they now have to step up and play a pretty darn good defense that held a Toledo team to 10-2 for a long time in their game (start of 4th Q ) before 28 pts erupted in that half.....
-Calzada was held to under 100 yds throwing and I doubt he does much better against a strong Ole Miss defense
-Kentucky will be lucky to score 14-17 pts
-Ole Miss QB Simmons got picked off 2x vs a weak Georgia St defense.... now he steps up vs a very good Kentucky defense?
-Ole Miss will have to navigate their offense in this one a little more conservatively now and so I do see them scoring over 31 most like and if they do....well, that will only force their defense to play that much better with the time they have on the sidelines watching their offense on the field do their job
Worse case: 35 - 14/17
Likely case: 27 -17, 27-14
Like the last two years, this total does not end up with a final score far above 40 pts
Have my eye on this Farmageddon Total....its down to 41.5 this morning which is now playable but still not at the IDEAL NUMBER which would be below 38 in a 'PERFECT WORLD' but I won't need that number in my opinion....under 40.5 I hit this one fairly hard ....still worth a HALF U stab now but gonna wait
If you can believe it.....I just got 52 for the OLE MISS/Kentucky game UNDER 52 x 1U ....it went up after I wrote that haha
I see Maryland has climbed from -16.5 to -18 ....good shopping last night late
Pitt total coming down too..
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Have my eye on this Farmageddon Total....its down to 41.5 this morning which is now playable but still not at the IDEAL NUMBER which would be below 38 in a 'PERFECT WORLD' but I won't need that number in my opinion....under 40.5 I hit this one fairly hard ....still worth a HALF U stab now but gonna wait
If you can believe it.....I just got 52 for the OLE MISS/Kentucky game UNDER 52 x 1U ....it went up after I wrote that haha
I see Maryland has climbed from -16.5 to -18 ....good shopping last night late
Play #5 - Wisconsin -28 x HALF U vs MTSU (yes -27.5 would have been ideal but missed it)
-MTSU could not beat a D2 team and their offense is only as good or perhaps slightly better than MiaOh (they might score 1-2 FGs in this game or 1 TD maybe....their defense is nowhere near MiaOh
-4-5 TDs scores should not be an issue for Wisconsin vs this defense and tack on 1-2 FGs...but I suspect they go for it instead on close 3rd and short to prepare for higher competition in the BIG10 where they will need it so 5+ TDs is very likely scored by them
Eyeing:
USF-Florida - strong lean to OVER 54.5 but keep and eye on weather first ....hurricane season!
-last couple of games have gone 59/62 pts in 2022 and 2021
Play #6 - Toledo/WKU UNDER 59.5 x 1 U
-headline for Toledo August 5th > "Toledo Boasts One of the Best Secondaries in the Group of Five"
-that is what they need vs WKU who QB McIvor is off to a great start with over 700 yds in 2 games
-last year WKU won 26-21 at home.....Toledo a lot stronger on defense and offense this year but WKU has a better defense too
I do not expect one team to go Over 31 pts in this one and if they do, it will be Toledo who will want to be methodical with their drives when they do get the ball, rather than quick strikes.....to keep McIvor on the sidelines
Best score in this one: 31 - 27/28 type of score but more likely to be 28-21 .......Toledo winning.....I see some value in taking WKU with their QB but Toledo is a decent defense to contend with holding Calzada from Kentucky to under 100 yds throwing
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #5 - Wisconsin -28 x HALF U vs MTSU (yes -27.5 would have been ideal but missed it)
-MTSU could not beat a D2 team and their offense is only as good or perhaps slightly better than MiaOh (they might score 1-2 FGs in this game or 1 TD maybe....their defense is nowhere near MiaOh
-4-5 TDs scores should not be an issue for Wisconsin vs this defense and tack on 1-2 FGs...but I suspect they go for it instead on close 3rd and short to prepare for higher competition in the BIG10 where they will need it so 5+ TDs is very likely scored by them
Eyeing:
USF-Florida - strong lean to OVER 54.5 but keep and eye on weather first ....hurricane season!
-last couple of games have gone 59/62 pts in 2022 and 2021
Play #6 - Toledo/WKU UNDER 59.5 x 1 U
-headline for Toledo August 5th > "Toledo Boasts One of the Best Secondaries in the Group of Five"
-that is what they need vs WKU who QB McIvor is off to a great start with over 700 yds in 2 games
-last year WKU won 26-21 at home.....Toledo a lot stronger on defense and offense this year but WKU has a better defense too
I do not expect one team to go Over 31 pts in this one and if they do, it will be Toledo who will want to be methodical with their drives when they do get the ball, rather than quick strikes.....to keep McIvor on the sidelines
Best score in this one: 31 - 27/28 type of score but more likely to be 28-21 .......Toledo winning.....I see some value in taking WKU with their QB but Toledo is a decent defense to contend with holding Calzada from Kentucky to under 100 yds throwing
figuring out where the public or the syndicates will push the line is key, either bet right away if you feel its the best line you'll get or if you feel it will move to where you will like it then wait.... I grabbed USF at 17.5 I do not see it going up
1
figuring out where the public or the syndicates will push the line is key, either bet right away if you feel its the best line you'll get or if you feel it will move to where you will like it then wait.... I grabbed USF at 17.5 I do not see it going up
figuring out where the public or the syndicates will push the line is key, either bet right away if you feel its the best line you'll get or if you feel it will move to where you will like it then wait.... I grabbed USF at 17.5 I do not see it going up
For sure Rum I love 'momentum' line watchers like yourself....its a real art
USF might be the Army or Indiana of this year....so good on your for getting +17.5
I am putting in the time for comparatives and correlations of past year data and this year trends week to week.....and each team's ratings of SP+ on offense/defense << I also feel a check of boxscores/injury report is warranted and tape of game for the next step if I have time.
The pratfalls of following or just reading angles that makes sense and buying in without doing the homework tend to lead to blaming and that is something I personally am taking control of in all my handicapping ....horses, MLB, NCAAB and now NCAAF.... its a lot more fun when you win.
All the best on your week Week 2
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by RUM151:
figuring out where the public or the syndicates will push the line is key, either bet right away if you feel its the best line you'll get or if you feel it will move to where you will like it then wait.... I grabbed USF at 17.5 I do not see it going up
For sure Rum I love 'momentum' line watchers like yourself....its a real art
USF might be the Army or Indiana of this year....so good on your for getting +17.5
I am putting in the time for comparatives and correlations of past year data and this year trends week to week.....and each team's ratings of SP+ on offense/defense << I also feel a check of boxscores/injury report is warranted and tape of game for the next step if I have time.
The pratfalls of following or just reading angles that makes sense and buying in without doing the homework tend to lead to blaming and that is something I personally am taking control of in all my handicapping ....horses, MLB, NCAAB and now NCAAF.... its a lot more fun when you win.
Indiana Total is inching up..... that was what I was hoping for.
52.5 Total now << I did say I thought if the total went over 51, its in play so might as well take this now
Play #7 INDIANA UNDER 52.5 x HALF U....this leaves me room to add if it goes to 53.5/54
Pitt starting to take off.....have to decide if I wait or take the -22.5 ...23 is not a good and maybe -22.5 isn't either....I just see CMU in a tough tough spot here with time zones changed 2 weeks in a row
These are my line thoughts with 3 days to go till first games Friday
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Indiana Total is inching up..... that was what I was hoping for.
52.5 Total now << I did say I thought if the total went over 51, its in play so might as well take this now
Play #7 INDIANA UNDER 52.5 x HALF U....this leaves me room to add if it goes to 53.5/54
Pitt starting to take off.....have to decide if I wait or take the -22.5 ...23 is not a good and maybe -22.5 isn't either....I just see CMU in a tough tough spot here with time zones changed 2 weeks in a row
These are my line thoughts with 3 days to go till first games Friday
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I love 'momentum' line watchers like yourself....its a real art 
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