Quote Originally Posted by jp1lsu:
Are you a Bama guy? I only ask because I am curious why this is a max bet. I went with NCSU ML, South Carolina ML, and UGA +1.
I dont get the buying of points in some of those plays. Maybe its a different school of thought, but I would rather take SC +130 than SC +3.5 at what -125? It could also be "betting units" where I play smaller and absorb more risk with ML plays. IMO the chances of SC winning outright or losing by more than 4 is greater than the odds surrendered by purchasing a half point. Dont get me wrong, we are on the same side of play.
I also lean OU, but I dont like them before the whole RRR as road chalk (concerned). Cincy might just be that bad though. Not a trend guy by any means, but over the past 3 years UT and OU were both favored the week before RRR. UT went 1-2 ats but 3-0 SU. OU went 1-2 ats and 2-1 SU. Not a great week to take these to as fav's, especially on the road.
All that being said, I also lean UT and OU. Like I said, I dont buy into what happened 3 years ago. Its still a no play for me at this point, but that could change.
I went with Fresno ML, but this might really be a bad spot to take them based on what they did last week and what Ole Miss did last week. In terms of perception. I think we all agree we have no idea how good or how bad Ole Miss is at this point, but they have been real bad thus far.
I know what a disaster UNT is right now, but I know some good cappers that went with UNT ML. They are more in love with the odds than the x's and o's, but they think that dd is too much in the SBC with these two teams. No play for me.
Overall, I dont see a game on your card that I dont think can win/cover. You've been around long enough to know what I am talking about.
BTW, I had Troy (sort of big) last week. UAB's WR hip was down before he hit the endzone.
BOL
Yes, I am a well-connected Bama fan. You might be the only person on Covers that doesn't know that. LOL!!! I have written about this game extensively in 3 different threads and started one of my own (which you have visited). I'll let those speak for me on this game.
I only bought a half of a point in the USCe game, no others. No argument with you on your South Carolina rationale. I will be on them ML as well. I posted them at +3.5 because I made it a "Best Bet" so I took the conservative approach. I honestly don't see how that loses.
Absolutely love Tejas. I only like Oklahoma for the reasons you state. This play is as much a fade on Cincy as anything else.
My first inclination was to lean Fresno, but I just gotta think Ole Siss puts up a tough fight at home for God's sake. Long trip for Fresno.
UNT's top 2 QBs are out for this game. WR will be playing QB. That caused the line to jump from 6.5 to 10. Moreover, FAU has had 2 weeks to prepare for this home game. Playing UNT ML with a WR behind center takes some brass balls!!! Not sure smart it is though.
I saw the replay of the Troy Hail Mary play. It certainly didn't look like a TD to me. Agree that might be the of the year!!!
BOL this weekend JP!!!