The running dogs did good last week going 9-4-1. If I had waited on Oregon I could have avoided the push. But who knew? Until the day of kickoff it looked like it was going to hit 2.5 instead of 4. The two teams I should have left alone are Army, who wasn't actually a running dog, and Air Force giving DD to a well coached battle tested Wyoming team. Here are my first two running dogs. I've got something like 19 this week, but I'm going to be a little more selective this week. The running dogs have killed it the last two weeks, but they are due for a little regression.
The running dogs did good last week going 9-4-1. If I had waited on Oregon I could have avoided the push. But who knew? Until the day of kickoff it looked like it was going to hit 2.5 instead of 4. The two teams I should have left alone are Army, who wasn't actually a running dog, and Air Force giving DD to a well coached battle tested Wyoming team. Here are my first two running dogs. I've got something like 19 this week, but I'm going to be a little more selective this week. The running dogs have killed it the last two weeks, but they are due for a little regression.
what exactly is a running dog to you Doc? this is time of year you start hitting them, best wishes Brotha
A running dog is a team who is the dog in their game that (on paper) rushes the ball better than their favored opponent. That number includes how well the running dog runs the ball as well as how good their defense is at stopping the run. When the 'probable running dog' actually outrushes their favored opponent, they cover the spread over 60% of the time. This season when the spread has been +3 or less the team that has outrushed their opponent has covered in 48 of the 71 games! Which is pretty crazy. I like to start using this system from about the 6th week on after I've accumulated more data on these teams.
what exactly is a running dog to you Doc? this is time of year you start hitting them, best wishes Brotha
A running dog is a team who is the dog in their game that (on paper) rushes the ball better than their favored opponent. That number includes how well the running dog runs the ball as well as how good their defense is at stopping the run. When the 'probable running dog' actually outrushes their favored opponent, they cover the spread over 60% of the time. This season when the spread has been +3 or less the team that has outrushed their opponent has covered in 48 of the 71 games! Which is pretty crazy. I like to start using this system from about the 6th week on after I've accumulated more data on these teams.
@DrStrangelove 48 of 71 is great, interesting my number have Jax line around 4 so they agree with you, I may go with them or the over
Because of JS running ability that keeps the clock moving, I'm leaning more towards the under in that game. But the total has come down from the opener 62.5 to 60 so I haven't played it yet. But I still may play it small. BOL this week.
@DrStrangelove 48 of 71 is great, interesting my number have Jax line around 4 so they agree with you, I may go with them or the over
Because of JS running ability that keeps the clock moving, I'm leaning more towards the under in that game. But the total has come down from the opener 62.5 to 60 so I haven't played it yet. But I still may play it small. BOL this week.
Quote Originally Posted by Brooklyncapper: This is really helpful he’s good, just a slow starter, this time of year it’s a great idea to look in here, he’s very solid on big12 also Doc is good keeps
Quote Originally Posted by Brooklyncapper: This is really helpful he’s good, just a slow starter, this time of year it’s a great idea to look in here, he’s very solid on big12 also Doc is good keeps
Dr. Strangelove is one of the few threads I try to check regularly…..if that means anything. Solid capper in my opinion. A Kentucky just seems “off” this year- a good rushing game comes in handy against them - will do some digging on that one myself! Arky at home where it looks like they can win…I’m surprised St. has a better rushing game but they do- thanks for bringing that to my attention! GL this week!
Dr. Strangelove is one of the few threads I try to check regularly…..if that means anything. Solid capper in my opinion. A Kentucky just seems “off” this year- a good rushing game comes in handy against them - will do some digging on that one myself! Arky at home where it looks like they can win…I’m surprised St. has a better rushing game but they do- thanks for bringing that to my attention! GL this week!
Dr. Strangelove is one of the few threads I try to check regularly…..if that means anything. Solid capper in my opinion. A Kentucky just seems “off” this year- a good rushing game comes in handy against them - will do some digging on that one myself! Arky at home where it looks like they can win…I’m surprised St. has a better rushing game but they do- thanks for bringing that to my attention! GL this week!
Kentucky had a rough season running the ball last year after they lost 3 OL and their OC. Last year they averaged just 121 ypg rushing and gave up 145 ypg rushing. With those kinds of stats I'm kind of surprised they even won 7 games. Stoops did a good job getting them back to a bowl. This year they are a little more stable on their OL and are averaging 152 ypg rushing with an excellent 5.9 ypc. But until their last two games against UGA and Mizzou they haven't really played anybody. Their rushing defense is also better than last year. This year they are giving up just 92 rushing ypg for a 3.1 average compared to 145. At this point their pass defense isn't quite as good as it was last year. Overall, if you want to go by stats alone, UK should be at least as good as last year given their competition. But it's still up in the air if UK can hang on to those same stats with teams like Tenn, Bama and Louisville still on their schedule.... In the SEC Tennessee, South Carolina and Miss St. are all running dogs this week. GL
Dr. Strangelove is one of the few threads I try to check regularly…..if that means anything. Solid capper in my opinion. A Kentucky just seems “off” this year- a good rushing game comes in handy against them - will do some digging on that one myself! Arky at home where it looks like they can win…I’m surprised St. has a better rushing game but they do- thanks for bringing that to my attention! GL this week!
Kentucky had a rough season running the ball last year after they lost 3 OL and their OC. Last year they averaged just 121 ypg rushing and gave up 145 ypg rushing. With those kinds of stats I'm kind of surprised they even won 7 games. Stoops did a good job getting them back to a bowl. This year they are a little more stable on their OL and are averaging 152 ypg rushing with an excellent 5.9 ypc. But until their last two games against UGA and Mizzou they haven't really played anybody. Their rushing defense is also better than last year. This year they are giving up just 92 rushing ypg for a 3.1 average compared to 145. At this point their pass defense isn't quite as good as it was last year. Overall, if you want to go by stats alone, UK should be at least as good as last year given their competition. But it's still up in the air if UK can hang on to those same stats with teams like Tenn, Bama and Louisville still on their schedule.... In the SEC Tennessee, South Carolina and Miss St. are all running dogs this week. GL
Thanks guys. Looks like a little line movement on the Jacksonville St spread. The line opened at 9 and was quickly bet down to 7 and is now up to 7.5, which is a little unusual. I believe there is still a little confusion about Jack State's power ranking in their first season as an FBS team. Which is why I didn't bet the double wide on this game. But I do like the way they run the ball (214 ypg) and WKU gives up 194 ypg rushing.
Thanks guys. Looks like a little line movement on the Jacksonville St spread. The line opened at 9 and was quickly bet down to 7 and is now up to 7.5, which is a little unusual. I believe there is still a little confusion about Jack State's power ranking in their first season as an FBS team. Which is why I didn't bet the double wide on this game. But I do like the way they run the ball (214 ypg) and WKU gives up 194 ypg rushing.
My big fingers did it again. Should have typed W. Kentucky seems off this year (not A Kentucky) Looks like Jax St rushed all over them - the Hilltoppers offense just isn’t very explosive this year. I knew W Kentucky offense was not explosive this year but I didn’t trust Jax St- good call!
My big fingers did it again. Should have typed W. Kentucky seems off this year (not A Kentucky) Looks like Jax St rushed all over them - the Hilltoppers offense just isn’t very explosive this year. I knew W Kentucky offense was not explosive this year but I didn’t trust Jax St- good call!
@DrStrangelove My big fingers did it again. Should have typed W. Kentucky seems off this year (not A Kentucky) Looks like Jax St rushed all over them - the Hilltoppers offense just isn’t very explosive this year. I knew W Kentucky offense was not explosive this year but I didn’t trust Jax St- good call!
Jax St played great. 262 yards rushing to 89 for WKU. They were a HUGE running pup. They were also one of my trifecta teams. Better running game and better defense that was playing at home. My trifecta teams are 5-0 this season.
@DrStrangelove My big fingers did it again. Should have typed W. Kentucky seems off this year (not A Kentucky) Looks like Jax St rushed all over them - the Hilltoppers offense just isn’t very explosive this year. I knew W Kentucky offense was not explosive this year but I didn’t trust Jax St- good call!
Jax St played great. 262 yards rushing to 89 for WKU. They were a HUGE running pup. They were also one of my trifecta teams. Better running game and better defense that was playing at home. My trifecta teams are 5-0 this season.
I've got 5 teams on my list that aren't running dogs, but they are the better running teams with a spread of -3 or lower. I haven't decided yet if I want to make them a full play, but the 5 teams are NMST -3, Tulsa -3, Cincy -3, Toledo -2.5 & ULL -3
I've got 5 teams on my list that aren't running dogs, but they are the better running teams with a spread of -3 or lower. I haven't decided yet if I want to make them a full play, but the 5 teams are NMST -3, Tulsa -3, Cincy -3, Toledo -2.5 & ULL -3
NMST is the better running team. But the main problem I have with this game is the old trend of when a team wins on the road as dogs the previous week (UTEP) and are made the dogs the next week at home, have a good record of covering the spread. UTEP falls into that category. By the way FAU does too this week. They'll be playing UTSA and getting +3 at home. I kind of like what I saw from the UTEP QB last week making his first start on the road. He threw for 175 in the first quarter. Yes, I know it was FIU. But that was still pretty impressive. I think at home he can make just as good a showing against a NMST defense that is giving up about 250 ypg passing. The UTEP coach is an idiot, but I think they finally found their guy at QB. It only took him 7 games.
NMST is the better running team. But the main problem I have with this game is the old trend of when a team wins on the road as dogs the previous week (UTEP) and are made the dogs the next week at home, have a good record of covering the spread. UTEP falls into that category. By the way FAU does too this week. They'll be playing UTSA and getting +3 at home. I kind of like what I saw from the UTEP QB last week making his first start on the road. He threw for 175 in the first quarter. Yes, I know it was FIU. But that was still pretty impressive. I think at home he can make just as good a showing against a NMST defense that is giving up about 250 ypg passing. The UTEP coach is an idiot, but I think they finally found their guy at QB. It only took him 7 games.
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