Dawgs gonna bark

51-2 at home. Highest O output of season  last two outings.  D playing better,now #20 in nation..Tx recent passing success agst weakest secondaries in SEC. Mostly post catch / run  yardage. UGA has better QB. Frankly,tired of Mr Hype. KS recent success agst Sark. However,not too hot ats historically.  Have a weak fondness for teasers...moreso on the gridiron. Let's tease UGA down to zero and the total up to 54.5 and go Under.  GL to all from Ga. Nice and warm. Anybody wanna play The Augusta National?  I'm 100 yds away. 89 my one time. Didn't play too good.

This may be the heaviest bet game...handle wise...of the weekend. Imo. And as we all know, where big monies involved,often funky " developments" affecting spread, risk liability,exposure for books,etc... Hence,I personally like,at times, to take the spread out of the pic,as I did here. Yes,it may be futile and a waste. I ain't no big whale or like.Not a teaser,EV expert. John Ferguson was family friend. ??It's all for fun,enjoy the challenge. And yes,UGA grad. Old fart. And no expert on the team. So,tread lightly. I do think they will win. Cooking coming in,lots of momentum and weapons. 

And lastly,decided to look at Massey ratings. Obviously, theoretically better later in season,larger sample size. Potentially. Looked at O,D and SOS rankings. UGA...9,8 and 6. Tx...15,5 and 15.  Agreed w the 6 spread.  Is all this statistically significant,worth... probably not.

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I like this...UGA flat and Under that nos. We got two of the best Ds in the country ,that have played two of the toughest schedules.  Now,watch em score 70.  There ain't never no certainty, only probabilities. With money MGMT the key. 

Come on....give me some thoughts,feedback.

I like UGA. I think it’s a bad matchup for Texas. Manning is the check down king. He dumps it off to his talented receivers and lets them do the work. The problem is KS plays 3-4 defensive scheme and they are disciplined. They will smother it. 

The other problem is that even if Texas finds success in the 1st half by changing things up, there is nobody better at half time adjustments than KS. 

I’m gonna lay the 6 and not even worry about it. 

@jpitty

 KS superb at halftime adjustments last few seasons. Basically,shutting teams down. Seen this over and over again repeatedly.

48,38 split as of now. Tix,handle on UGA.

47,43.  36,41 Under. Any significant movement closer to kickoff will be of interest.  Athens will b rocking tomorrow night...with a full day to " prepare".  Only drawback is there will b way too many damn commercials, with telecast too long. Last recent night prime time tv telecast,the totality of telecast start to first half end took two and one half hrs. Granted,lots of drawn out reviews. Even announcers questioning  what's the deal.  Enthusiasm here in Ga is high. 

David Pollack's predicts 24-17. Assume folks know ex UGA All American.  Sounds good to me. Obviously,his fb knowledge,insight is way beyond me...and most. 

Horns crush the Georgia Saturday night. Better OL play recently and GA missing some key top Dawgs.

Hookem.

Mline too. Alternate Mline Texas -6 LARGE.

@Logic123

 Best of luck. Should b good. No big deal. UGA deep.Didnt hurt last weekend in convincing win on the road. 

One more thing. I ain't no Billy Walters. I'm often wrong. Yet,my UGA posted plays here quite good.  Only UGA grad in the world who betted on both Ala and FL. Teased both up to 14.5.  didn't need in hindsight.  Don't tell anybody as I'd be tarred and feathered . NFL teasing record is good.  More of a value guy..Hence,I could be dead wrong tomorrow.  You just never know.  Employ proper risk,money MGMT. Quality over quantity. Pick your spots. Be a sniper.

Excuse me. Believe that Bama nos was 8.5. They playing well now. Met dude recently sitting at same table,coffee shop who played for Bama and KS. Practice squad mostly but did play in four or five games.  D Line.  Great guy. Interesting hearing his comments on program,culture Saban and like. Gotta admire anyone who walks on there. 

Tebow talking about UGA steady improvement,evolving on both sides of the ball,esp offense.  Moreover,we did rush for 300 agst miss St last week. Pretty robust, multifaceted attack. He mentioned Stocktons elite level of play also.  Frankly, I expect Stockton to outplay Manning. Further, understand Manning didn't throw it past 16 yds down field last outing.  Dinking it again los. UGA secondary could b vulnerable, esp w a mediocre pass rush,havoc metric. Tx explosive receivers,yds after catch.

Did I see a 4.5? Interesting. You never know the dynamics,motives behind such a large move. Yet,in looking at the ML wagering,I'm seeing 84/66 Tix,handle split on UGA.  This ain't Billy Bob and Ernest from Dawsonville.  I would think. Beautiful day down here. Be very surprised if UGA loses. With a mediocre running game,I doubt seriously Manning is gonna beat us...and KS.  Could b wrong. Won't b the first time. Looking at it from a probability PT of view. 

DK is showing 70% of bets on Georgia -4.5 but only 45% of the handle . Wise guys love Texas and I’m starting to also. Hard to think Georgia can contain Texas receiving core which makes me believe close game . Texas defense just good enough 

@VegasVandal

 Interesting. Funny how different sites reflect different data. We'll just have to see. 

If you wanna put your money on a QB with a qbr of 63.1, 59th in nation vs 89.4, 3rd in nation,on the road, have at it.  Agst a team 51-2 at home of late. Further,a rushing game not in top 50 vs 24th in nation.  I like my dumb money play.  Esp w no spread.

Agst a team 51-2 at home of late. That sharp money must be onto something. 

Perhaps some of you old farts know Sonny Moore and his PR system. Been around a long time. Says this line way too short. Connelly has it 4.4. You can't PR these youngsters emotions...

So this is the Manning that's gonna beat us ? Still a long way to go. Yet,we typically dominate second halves.  Looking promising.

@fts1409

 You sure know your UGA football.. hope this play cashes for you! I teased GA down last night to -.5 and got Utah-8.5 down to -2.5..  let’s have a good 2h! 

@Dubcity4

 Well,Thank you Sir..That's very nice of you. I don't know about that. I try to pick my spots where I feel I may have a discernible edge. And felt that here w a variety of factors. No expert on Xs and Os,schemes,tendencies,et all.  We may get blown out second half and Arch looks like a Heisman candidate again. KS repeatedly makes best halftime adjustments in the country. Over and over. Hopefully,the trend will continue. GL on your plays...

Give em hell Kirby.