I like to go through and project each game for the week before I look at the lines in order to give me a less biased outlook. Week 1 always brings about quite a few odd lines. These are the ones I've noticed.
Connecticut (+23.5) : I understand this line. It's a team off of a 13-0 season battling a team off of a 3-9 season. I still think UCF wins 10-11 games this season, but I don't see them near the top of the country in margin of victory ... especially while they are adjusting at the beginning of the season. The offense should be near as explosive as last season but TreQuan Smith was one of the most underrated receivers in the country and somebody will have to step up in order for 50+ point weekly upside to be there. I love UConn and this line because I expect UCF to struggle out of the gate defensively losing their two best back seven players. Talent will eventually prevail but I have this one at closer to 42-27.
Wake Forest (-7.5) : Dave Clawson is one of the most under-appreciated coaches in the country and I jsut refuse to believe he can't get this team ready enough to beat Tulane by more than a touchdown in week 1. Clawson's teams always outperform expectations as they have been 28-20 ATS since he got there. Their offense should be able to even improve off a breakout year. Tulane might be able to keep for a quarter or two, but Wake knows that they will have very few gimmies this year and should step on the gas. I have Wake 38-21.
Syracuse (-6) : I want to pick Syracuse as a breakout candidate but it is so dificult with their schedule. The offense should finally find its peak under Babers this year with Dungey back behind center. The defense looked good enough last season through the first 9 weeks to at least give their offense a chance, but something fell apart down the stretch. Something we have to imagine should be worked on as Syracuse did make huge strides on D last season compared to 2016. We know that Babers will be after as many points as he can find. He's going up against a MAC defense who has lost its core. Syracuse covers this one 37-24.
Colorado (-6) : I've bet on Colorado only beind favored by single digits in this game for consecutive years. They were favored by 3 last and 8 the year before. Both games - Colorado dominated. They've held their little brother to 10 total points in those games. Colorado may struggle to score some points at times this year which may give them issues against some of the high flying Pac 12 teams. Their defense will be stout for a third year in a row against one of the Rams weaker and younger teams to date. 31-20 Buffs.
I like to go through and project each game for the week before I look at the lines in order to give me a less biased outlook. Week 1 always brings about quite a few odd lines. These are the ones I've noticed.
Connecticut (+23.5) : I understand this line. It's a team off of a 13-0 season battling a team off of a 3-9 season. I still think UCF wins 10-11 games this season, but I don't see them near the top of the country in margin of victory ... especially while they are adjusting at the beginning of the season. The offense should be near as explosive as last season but TreQuan Smith was one of the most underrated receivers in the country and somebody will have to step up in order for 50+ point weekly upside to be there. I love UConn and this line because I expect UCF to struggle out of the gate defensively losing their two best back seven players. Talent will eventually prevail but I have this one at closer to 42-27.
Wake Forest (-7.5) : Dave Clawson is one of the most under-appreciated coaches in the country and I jsut refuse to believe he can't get this team ready enough to beat Tulane by more than a touchdown in week 1. Clawson's teams always outperform expectations as they have been 28-20 ATS since he got there. Their offense should be able to even improve off a breakout year. Tulane might be able to keep for a quarter or two, but Wake knows that they will have very few gimmies this year and should step on the gas. I have Wake 38-21.
Syracuse (-6) : I want to pick Syracuse as a breakout candidate but it is so dificult with their schedule. The offense should finally find its peak under Babers this year with Dungey back behind center. The defense looked good enough last season through the first 9 weeks to at least give their offense a chance, but something fell apart down the stretch. Something we have to imagine should be worked on as Syracuse did make huge strides on D last season compared to 2016. We know that Babers will be after as many points as he can find. He's going up against a MAC defense who has lost its core. Syracuse covers this one 37-24.
Colorado (-6) : I've bet on Colorado only beind favored by single digits in this game for consecutive years. They were favored by 3 last and 8 the year before. Both games - Colorado dominated. They've held their little brother to 10 total points in those games. Colorado may struggle to score some points at times this year which may give them issues against some of the high flying Pac 12 teams. Their defense will be stout for a third year in a row against one of the Rams weaker and younger teams to date. 31-20 Buffs.
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