Yeah was wondering if the ACL guy was coming back for this one ..tough to imagine but vols seemed to imagine him playing week 1 .. my guess is he's taking a year off and no risk to him he's got a huge career ahead of him .. can't come back before he's ready .
wasn't sure about the other guy but this feels like trouble to me .. is jourdan playing yet ? .. I had Tenn w questions in their secondary if they weren't fully healthy .. questions at LB .. we know their DL is still good but tough to be better with the major dude they lost ..
0
@Boisestateand8
Yeah was wondering if the ACL guy was coming back for this one ..tough to imagine but vols seemed to imagine him playing week 1 .. my guess is he's taking a year off and no risk to him he's got a huge career ahead of him .. can't come back before he's ready .
wasn't sure about the other guy but this feels like trouble to me .. is jourdan playing yet ? .. I had Tenn w questions in their secondary if they weren't fully healthy .. questions at LB .. we know their DL is still good but tough to be better with the major dude they lost ..
You and I discussed the chance of Fade Clemson Szn during the summer. I do agree they still have legit guys on that D Line but sheesh, they may go another year without beating anyone in the top 15. Ga Tech dropping from 7.5 to 3.5 is telling. I'm on the former line.
With Jawja platooning down to -3.5, how much of a hammer is -3? I'm with you on that one at multiple numbers, I do not see it, despite Georgia having a JAG at QB and some possible unsolved issues from last year. I don't know how many years we can watch Kirby Cover 4 the Heupel air raid to death with his 5 stars... And they ain't got Hendon Hooker, Tillman Hyatt, etc this time around. AND that defense was legit last year, back 4 lacking with these injuries... Georgia upgrades in the WR room. Have to wonder what is shrinking the line
2
@Bridge1
You and I discussed the chance of Fade Clemson Szn during the summer. I do agree they still have legit guys on that D Line but sheesh, they may go another year without beating anyone in the top 15. Ga Tech dropping from 7.5 to 3.5 is telling. I'm on the former line.
With Jawja platooning down to -3.5, how much of a hammer is -3? I'm with you on that one at multiple numbers, I do not see it, despite Georgia having a JAG at QB and some possible unsolved issues from last year. I don't know how many years we can watch Kirby Cover 4 the Heupel air raid to death with his 5 stars... And they ain't got Hendon Hooker, Tillman Hyatt, etc this time around. AND that defense was legit last year, back 4 lacking with these injuries... Georgia upgrades in the WR room. Have to wonder what is shrinking the line
I made the call of the century .. whatever Joz Knows is gold .. lol .. nice call once again ..
My read on Clemson so far is they have a real problem on offense .. saw Troy's little scrappy guys punch them in the mouth over n over .. saw their edge rusher beat their LT and the guard trying to help for a big sack .. worth noting starting LT Leigh was out apparently and they need him back ASAP .. you see little #44 on troy making at least 3 dude plays and quite a few others making big highlights troy looked awesome .. and offense moved the ball .. had the 2 picks early in their drives in H2 setting clem up w scores and man if they don't throw those and get a few yards and punt it then this game may have been in serious jeopardy for Clemson .. Clem ultimately did get some drives going but reallllly relying on Wesco at this point to set things up .. Troy D stopped em 5 times for punts / FG's and got another 2 turnovers .. I count Clem w 3 good drives albeit one stalled and they kicked a FG .. Clem's D set them up for easy scores twice .. couple good drives vs LSU but 2 of em went TOD and missed a FG .. one good TD drive ..
My read pre-ssn is they need to figure out who the RB is and even w Randall steppin up for 110 yds they still looked irky jerky the whole game he had a big 30 yarder but 20att 80 yds is 4 y/att beyond that .. My other read is yeah they have a few good looking WR's but they aren't deep and one injury could cause a prob .. Antonio Williams out last game prob left them hamstrung a bit .. Injury to Wesco is probably devastating for them .. really needed to get a real RB and a few depth WR's from the portal IMO .. run game suffers this week I doubt they can rely on Wesco and the D to magically bail them out .. we'll see ..
Note that King played a great game vs Colo but out last week from 'nagging lower body injury' .. He finished the colo game and this seems like such a big game you don't chance him at all vs the FCS team .. Philo did good he's a good backup to have .. if King has an injury affecting his mobility this is trouble .. Clem DC Tom Allen from PSU .. PSU had no QB put up solid yards on the ground all of last year and I suspect Clem's D can prob affect that kinda plan to a degree .. not helpful for GT if King is not able to eek out those first downs .. just something to think about and either way makes me think GT can def win a lower scoring game esp one that King grinds the clock down on their drives and keeps Clem's D in the torture chamber ..
ALSO .. gotta question LSU's win at this point.. not unimpressive to win in death valley but if Clem's offense is just that easy to dismantle then its unclear that they will be as fortunate going forward .. you see a couple drives come up empty for them if instead they didn't miss the first FG and made a couple easier ones instead of going TOD then they coulda won that one 19-17 .. roll the dice on that game a couple more times and Clem gets a little lucky and finds a way a few times ..
2
@JozKnows
I made the call of the century .. whatever Joz Knows is gold .. lol .. nice call once again ..
My read on Clemson so far is they have a real problem on offense .. saw Troy's little scrappy guys punch them in the mouth over n over .. saw their edge rusher beat their LT and the guard trying to help for a big sack .. worth noting starting LT Leigh was out apparently and they need him back ASAP .. you see little #44 on troy making at least 3 dude plays and quite a few others making big highlights troy looked awesome .. and offense moved the ball .. had the 2 picks early in their drives in H2 setting clem up w scores and man if they don't throw those and get a few yards and punt it then this game may have been in serious jeopardy for Clemson .. Clem ultimately did get some drives going but reallllly relying on Wesco at this point to set things up .. Troy D stopped em 5 times for punts / FG's and got another 2 turnovers .. I count Clem w 3 good drives albeit one stalled and they kicked a FG .. Clem's D set them up for easy scores twice .. couple good drives vs LSU but 2 of em went TOD and missed a FG .. one good TD drive ..
My read pre-ssn is they need to figure out who the RB is and even w Randall steppin up for 110 yds they still looked irky jerky the whole game he had a big 30 yarder but 20att 80 yds is 4 y/att beyond that .. My other read is yeah they have a few good looking WR's but they aren't deep and one injury could cause a prob .. Antonio Williams out last game prob left them hamstrung a bit .. Injury to Wesco is probably devastating for them .. really needed to get a real RB and a few depth WR's from the portal IMO .. run game suffers this week I doubt they can rely on Wesco and the D to magically bail them out .. we'll see ..
Note that King played a great game vs Colo but out last week from 'nagging lower body injury' .. He finished the colo game and this seems like such a big game you don't chance him at all vs the FCS team .. Philo did good he's a good backup to have .. if King has an injury affecting his mobility this is trouble .. Clem DC Tom Allen from PSU .. PSU had no QB put up solid yards on the ground all of last year and I suspect Clem's D can prob affect that kinda plan to a degree .. not helpful for GT if King is not able to eek out those first downs .. just something to think about and either way makes me think GT can def win a lower scoring game esp one that King grinds the clock down on their drives and keeps Clem's D in the torture chamber ..
ALSO .. gotta question LSU's win at this point.. not unimpressive to win in death valley but if Clem's offense is just that easy to dismantle then its unclear that they will be as fortunate going forward .. you see a couple drives come up empty for them if instead they didn't miss the first FG and made a couple easier ones instead of going TOD then they coulda won that one 19-17 .. roll the dice on that game a couple more times and Clem gets a little lucky and finds a way a few times ..
Feels like a bonanza and was bet like that early on total up from 51 to 54.5 most spots Circa with best at 55 ..
Think the key here is we know Duke's secondary to be pretty solid and will play a tighter game this time around .. ILL got some really big passes to set their drives up but weren't very effective on the ground .. and lot of scoring set up by dukes 4 fumbles lost and interception .. and Duke surviving that early 13-14 halftime but had to be going off script in H2 as ILL .. H2 drives going downs, fumble pick, fumble TD ... ILL going TD, TD, TD, TD, FG .. I don't think we get that this time .. Manny's blitz calls and bringing pressure can oft result in some boom or bust drives and I think we see their knack for getting sacks / TFL's to show up in this one .. The big key there is Dukes D front is still pretty stout and Tulane's O flows from the run game and expect that to be much more jerky in this game ..
Tulane was also in a pretty tough spot I believe going to So Bama vs a creative HC/OC playcaller .. they did end up giving up a few TD's late in that one.. but if Duke is going to continue to limit their run game then think they'll be throwing into their 3 high safety look and probably limits their explosiveness .. think Dukes OL is solid too so would be a shame to mess this game up because of failure to call effective run plays .. messed up their entire season last year .. Good luck!
0
SMALLER
DUKE / TULANE UNDER 55 (CIRCA)
Feels like a bonanza and was bet like that early on total up from 51 to 54.5 most spots Circa with best at 55 ..
Think the key here is we know Duke's secondary to be pretty solid and will play a tighter game this time around .. ILL got some really big passes to set their drives up but weren't very effective on the ground .. and lot of scoring set up by dukes 4 fumbles lost and interception .. and Duke surviving that early 13-14 halftime but had to be going off script in H2 as ILL .. H2 drives going downs, fumble pick, fumble TD ... ILL going TD, TD, TD, TD, FG .. I don't think we get that this time .. Manny's blitz calls and bringing pressure can oft result in some boom or bust drives and I think we see their knack for getting sacks / TFL's to show up in this one .. The big key there is Dukes D front is still pretty stout and Tulane's O flows from the run game and expect that to be much more jerky in this game ..
Tulane was also in a pretty tough spot I believe going to So Bama vs a creative HC/OC playcaller .. they did end up giving up a few TD's late in that one.. but if Duke is going to continue to limit their run game then think they'll be throwing into their 3 high safety look and probably limits their explosiveness .. think Dukes OL is solid too so would be a shame to mess this game up because of failure to call effective run plays .. messed up their entire season last year .. Good luck!
Like the spot for the Pokes here off trip to Akron and easy deal at home vs N.Iowa FCS comp .. Its true this team is tough to read as the comp has been pure dirt so far .. the takeaway from Akron is they put way more yards up than the score indicates lotta partial drives and typical Wyoming elects to punt on those .. We also see first time /long loooong time they have a QB in Kaeden Anderson ..he got taken out last game after a big hit but coaches saying he's back at practice and playing .. taking their word for it but def a precaution move to not bring him back in as they were up and winning easy .. Wyoming has a good WR in Chris Durr and expect them to find a little traction on the ground in this one .. they also move unbearably slow for a team that is passing the ball and should chew thru much of the clock ..
On the flip side we Utah does look like pure fire .. Damp is doing damp things already and looking very much like a heisman already .. great OL and so far played great defense .. something to worry about because if they really wanted to drop a number here they probably could .. the big hangup is yer a giant fav on the road before a season defining game vs TTech at home next week .. you reallllly can't get Damp hurt trying to make plays in this game .. Elevation always a factor playing in Wyoming and while Utes are also at decent elevation 4200 feet we've seen texas tech the other year who plays at 3300 feet show up mauling them early and be totally exhausted by Q4 and lose the game in OT .. also like we have a night game 6pm start and again you just have to think the goal for the Utes is to get a win and get outta there ..
Another way to play this one is see if Utes can get off to a hot start up 10 or 14 zip early and I'd def look to take Wyo in game at that point if the spread moves into the 30's .. I don't see this being a full 60 min effort from Utah for reasons noted ..
Was hoping we'd get this ticked up to 24.5 or so but as of posting seeing the line tick down and were getting lot of 23's, 22.5's etc .. that's prob with the Kaeden Anderson news, coach expects him to play and doesn't think there's any issue it was a strong statement about his availability nothing iffy about it .. I will be checking in later if we hear anything contrary though .. suggest you do the same ..
1
BRIDGE PLAY
WYOMING +23.5
Like the spot for the Pokes here off trip to Akron and easy deal at home vs N.Iowa FCS comp .. Its true this team is tough to read as the comp has been pure dirt so far .. the takeaway from Akron is they put way more yards up than the score indicates lotta partial drives and typical Wyoming elects to punt on those .. We also see first time /long loooong time they have a QB in Kaeden Anderson ..he got taken out last game after a big hit but coaches saying he's back at practice and playing .. taking their word for it but def a precaution move to not bring him back in as they were up and winning easy .. Wyoming has a good WR in Chris Durr and expect them to find a little traction on the ground in this one .. they also move unbearably slow for a team that is passing the ball and should chew thru much of the clock ..
On the flip side we Utah does look like pure fire .. Damp is doing damp things already and looking very much like a heisman already .. great OL and so far played great defense .. something to worry about because if they really wanted to drop a number here they probably could .. the big hangup is yer a giant fav on the road before a season defining game vs TTech at home next week .. you reallllly can't get Damp hurt trying to make plays in this game .. Elevation always a factor playing in Wyoming and while Utes are also at decent elevation 4200 feet we've seen texas tech the other year who plays at 3300 feet show up mauling them early and be totally exhausted by Q4 and lose the game in OT .. also like we have a night game 6pm start and again you just have to think the goal for the Utes is to get a win and get outta there ..
Another way to play this one is see if Utes can get off to a hot start up 10 or 14 zip early and I'd def look to take Wyo in game at that point if the spread moves into the 30's .. I don't see this being a full 60 min effort from Utah for reasons noted ..
Was hoping we'd get this ticked up to 24.5 or so but as of posting seeing the line tick down and were getting lot of 23's, 22.5's etc .. that's prob with the Kaeden Anderson news, coach expects him to play and doesn't think there's any issue it was a strong statement about his availability nothing iffy about it .. I will be checking in later if we hear anything contrary though .. suggest you do the same ..
BRIDGE PLAYS FLA INT -3 BUFFALO -22 WYOMING +23.5 W.MICHIGAN +28 GEORGIA -5.5 (GOY) GEORGIA -6 SMALLER TROY +8 VANDY +8.5 N. TEXAS -3.5 TEMPLE +27.5 OLD DOM +9.5 AIR FORCE -2.5 E. CAROLINA -7 N.MEXICO +14.5 FLORIDA +7 (GOY) GA.SO / JVILLE OVER 55 DUKE / TULANE UNDER 55 N.MEXICO / UCLA UNDER 55.5
1
BRIDGE PLAYS FLA INT -3 BUFFALO -22 WYOMING +23.5 W.MICHIGAN +28 GEORGIA -5.5 (GOY) GEORGIA -6 SMALLER TROY +8 VANDY +8.5 N. TEXAS -3.5 TEMPLE +27.5 OLD DOM +9.5 AIR FORCE -2.5 E. CAROLINA -7 N.MEXICO +14.5 FLORIDA +7 (GOY) GA.SO / JVILLE OVER 55 DUKE / TULANE UNDER 55 N.MEXICO / UCLA UNDER 55.5
TAMU run D early results is def keeping this one at the TD mark and the D front was a concern noted in pre-ssn for them .. do they have the major dudes to shut things down .. they did give up one big play on the ground to Utah State but got TORCHED by UTSA's RB BIG TIME and even the backup threw a big pass right at the end of the gm .. much to some gamblers' dismay I'd imagine .. if the run D was buttoned up I would expect TAMU is getting under a FG with their power rating being a little stronger than ND's overall but can't do that with those early results .. Spot is max effort all the way big huuuuge revenge game and with ND already in a max effort game we can say for sure even w 2 tapes on TAMU that ND has put the most on tape so far ..
The part to like for TAMU is their OL and run game could be the best in the country and we've already seen ND's defense become very iffy vs a stronger OL this year .. if OL can pass block for Reed and they can make a few things also happen in the pass game then I'd have to expect TAMU scores the ball a few times and its a real threat to ND to win the game if ND cant plug them up .. could also indicate this game finds some decent scoring if both teams show up capable of running the ball .. big key to unlock both offenses ..
FUN BET
TEXAS A&M ML/O49.5 +575 (B365)
Correct calc odds for +220, -110 is +510 .. B365 giving us the better odds jerking them upward to take the dog and the over . Fan duel and jerky books offering jerky same game odds gives this same bet +420 .. taking the under is +400 .. total dirt balls .. so def shop around ..
As noted above both these run games might open up and thus both pass games may find traction as well .. I think its easy to remember last year with ND / TAMU 13-10 but recall diff QB's and diff group of WR's .. Unlike ND's first game not seeing any rain for this one .. that was a lock under at one point w U50.5 but it then just found a way .. I don't think we'll get as slow of a start here and really do also like the over assuming TAMU doesn't stall out running the ball .. that would be a very bad omen for them for the rest of their season!!!.. good luck!
1
SMALLER
TEXAS A&M +7
TAMU run D early results is def keeping this one at the TD mark and the D front was a concern noted in pre-ssn for them .. do they have the major dudes to shut things down .. they did give up one big play on the ground to Utah State but got TORCHED by UTSA's RB BIG TIME and even the backup threw a big pass right at the end of the gm .. much to some gamblers' dismay I'd imagine .. if the run D was buttoned up I would expect TAMU is getting under a FG with their power rating being a little stronger than ND's overall but can't do that with those early results .. Spot is max effort all the way big huuuuge revenge game and with ND already in a max effort game we can say for sure even w 2 tapes on TAMU that ND has put the most on tape so far ..
The part to like for TAMU is their OL and run game could be the best in the country and we've already seen ND's defense become very iffy vs a stronger OL this year .. if OL can pass block for Reed and they can make a few things also happen in the pass game then I'd have to expect TAMU scores the ball a few times and its a real threat to ND to win the game if ND cant plug them up .. could also indicate this game finds some decent scoring if both teams show up capable of running the ball .. big key to unlock both offenses ..
FUN BET
TEXAS A&M ML/O49.5 +575 (B365)
Correct calc odds for +220, -110 is +510 .. B365 giving us the better odds jerking them upward to take the dog and the over . Fan duel and jerky books offering jerky same game odds gives this same bet +420 .. taking the under is +400 .. total dirt balls .. so def shop around ..
As noted above both these run games might open up and thus both pass games may find traction as well .. I think its easy to remember last year with ND / TAMU 13-10 but recall diff QB's and diff group of WR's .. Unlike ND's first game not seeing any rain for this one .. that was a lock under at one point w U50.5 but it then just found a way .. I don't think we'll get as slow of a start here and really do also like the over assuming TAMU doesn't stall out running the ball .. that would be a very bad omen for them for the rest of their season!!!.. good luck!
Jackets have been OUR darlings for like 3 years, but I do question the spread moving to 3. Philo being viable is a huge upgrade for them over former King replacements, they were dealing with Mac level guys before he enrolled. However, they need King at some level of health to scare Clemson. Vs Colorado the run game was rolling, in this one they're gonna need something from WR/TE, namely the speed guys. On the other side, if Troy can cause that kind of mischief and LSU and stonewall them, Tech is probably in between. That defense seems well schemed again and pass rush is a little better. How much will Clemson be a dumpster fire on the road? I do agree they don't have a dude at RB and the line has looked very average. Blake Baker basically blitzed 6/7 every play in the second half, and Klubnik could not do anything.
Shrinking to 3 scares me but like I said I took 7.5.
On your other point, totally agree that while that is a big win for LSU it may be overrated. La tech had a salty D last year but LSU either crawled through that game or couldn't blow it open. By the way, USCe another one where this happened in worse fashion... waiting to be tagged. Anyway, Florida has some guys that can get after Nuss and I imagine we get a 100 effort from them this week as they tend to play up for Napier.
1
@Bridge1
Jackets have been OUR darlings for like 3 years, but I do question the spread moving to 3. Philo being viable is a huge upgrade for them over former King replacements, they were dealing with Mac level guys before he enrolled. However, they need King at some level of health to scare Clemson. Vs Colorado the run game was rolling, in this one they're gonna need something from WR/TE, namely the speed guys. On the other side, if Troy can cause that kind of mischief and LSU and stonewall them, Tech is probably in between. That defense seems well schemed again and pass rush is a little better. How much will Clemson be a dumpster fire on the road? I do agree they don't have a dude at RB and the line has looked very average. Blake Baker basically blitzed 6/7 every play in the second half, and Klubnik could not do anything.
Shrinking to 3 scares me but like I said I took 7.5.
On your other point, totally agree that while that is a big win for LSU it may be overrated. La tech had a salty D last year but LSU either crawled through that game or couldn't blow it open. By the way, USCe another one where this happened in worse fashion... waiting to be tagged. Anyway, Florida has some guys that can get after Nuss and I imagine we get a 100 effort from them this week as they tend to play up for Napier.
Yeah I can't do much at 3 points here it feels like it could go 3 either way .. catching 6 would be a play if I knew King had no lingering mobility issue .. Not saying he does I wouldn't have played King vs FCS if he even had a hang nail and might have held him out anyway just not worth the risk they were okay w out him yeah Philo is up n comin dude but dreams pretty much dead if he isin't full go in all the big games this yr .. yeah GT such a good n fun play over the years remember when we were going over like 3.5 and 4.5 and needing multiple 20 point upsets to pull it off and got those no problem hahahaaaaa!!!.. But yeah big picture GT likely not as strong at OL, DL, DB, WR this year .. one man show in Colorado comeback .. King is A DUDE KING ..
LSU's Center got hurt first play vs LA Tech and he was a dude .. then another I think tackle got hurt .. man o man that could be real trouble .. yeah like LA Tech's D still salty even w the DC leaving they got a no F around hit squad .. still playin that 3-man D made things a little tricky for LSU passing .. eventually did seem like LSU's speed got to em broke some big runs but overall pretty unimpressive day .. LSU's D didn't give up anything .. la tech lucky on a blown cover very late in the game .. Hard to say what to do w Tech's offense yet or if there's an issue .. I think the more promising thing here is that while we don't see Bullock at QB Kukuk won the 3 way comp w Baker and idk if Bull was #2 and he's just sitting out weighing his options but I'd count on better QB play than LY which wasn't great but wasn't that bad 2k yds 65% 14-3 wasn't the reason they stunk surprised they couldn't do better .. but yeah La Tech offense turn the key on O might be a fun year for them but haven't seen the light yet ..
0
@JozKnows
Yeah I can't do much at 3 points here it feels like it could go 3 either way .. catching 6 would be a play if I knew King had no lingering mobility issue .. Not saying he does I wouldn't have played King vs FCS if he even had a hang nail and might have held him out anyway just not worth the risk they were okay w out him yeah Philo is up n comin dude but dreams pretty much dead if he isin't full go in all the big games this yr .. yeah GT such a good n fun play over the years remember when we were going over like 3.5 and 4.5 and needing multiple 20 point upsets to pull it off and got those no problem hahahaaaaa!!!.. But yeah big picture GT likely not as strong at OL, DL, DB, WR this year .. one man show in Colorado comeback .. King is A DUDE KING ..
LSU's Center got hurt first play vs LA Tech and he was a dude .. then another I think tackle got hurt .. man o man that could be real trouble .. yeah like LA Tech's D still salty even w the DC leaving they got a no F around hit squad .. still playin that 3-man D made things a little tricky for LSU passing .. eventually did seem like LSU's speed got to em broke some big runs but overall pretty unimpressive day .. LSU's D didn't give up anything .. la tech lucky on a blown cover very late in the game .. Hard to say what to do w Tech's offense yet or if there's an issue .. I think the more promising thing here is that while we don't see Bullock at QB Kukuk won the 3 way comp w Baker and idk if Bull was #2 and he's just sitting out weighing his options but I'd count on better QB play than LY which wasn't great but wasn't that bad 2k yds 65% 14-3 wasn't the reason they stunk surprised they couldn't do better .. but yeah La Tech offense turn the key on O might be a fun year for them but haven't seen the light yet ..
Didn't realllly wanna bet into this one .. if there's such a thing as a perfect game in football Bama played very verrrry close to that last week vs ULM and it wouldn't seem like a spot to lay 3 scores vs anything more than a ham sandwich as this maybe coulda been -16.5 if they played last week, eh?! ... that said we got some confirm that Wisco's ham sandwich of a QB Danny O'neill is set to start this week / holding out Billy Edwards .. if they're smart they won't play him at all and try to win a few conf games .. O'Neill stunk as SDSU's QB and very clear #1 QB in edwards .. saw some pundits talking about O'neill over the spring and basically saying he's not a B10 QB and frankly last year he wasn't even an MW QB .. maybe he is now but this feels like 100% trouble .. Wisco is unbearably slow moving and my sense here is for bama to cover they reallllllly need to get that ball back quick and not let Wisco turn in the 8 play drives that run off 5+ minute and punt/pin bama way back .. D needs to get nasty and get the ball
I can't imagine Bama responding to to their gut check, questioning them as football players, etc and simply throwing a no hitter vs ULM only to d!ck around this week .. unclear if they get the good WR back but Germanni or whatever his name is has come on as maybe not the most pure talent but is clear leader in that WR room .. Possible they get their RB back .. Bama might be served well by getting them 'some' action this week vs a decent opponent .. as we expected the starters, the backups and even the bench got in on the fun last week and I think starting group would love to cheer them on again late in this one .. risk management is critical .. easy win / play backups vs the relatively more challenging opponents is a winning move IMO .. Bama w a bye on deck before the massive game @UGA and its true they need all systems go in that one but man if they F around here its a baaaad omen for them ..
Also really like the under but at 46.5 .. think very possible we can get a cover and keep Wisco scoring to a minimum with O'neill at the helm .. rare instance we like the fav and the under so shop around those jerkey books and find one that gives us the bigger odds .. should be +264 for 2 games at -110 .. B365 gives us best odds .. couple others hard rock gives us 3.5 but they're at -21.5 .. MGM has -20.5 / 46.5 but won't let us parlay that combo.. so ..
FUN BET
BAMA -21 / UNDER 46.5 +410 (B365)
2
SMALLER
ALABAMA -21
Didn't realllly wanna bet into this one .. if there's such a thing as a perfect game in football Bama played very verrrry close to that last week vs ULM and it wouldn't seem like a spot to lay 3 scores vs anything more than a ham sandwich as this maybe coulda been -16.5 if they played last week, eh?! ... that said we got some confirm that Wisco's ham sandwich of a QB Danny O'neill is set to start this week / holding out Billy Edwards .. if they're smart they won't play him at all and try to win a few conf games .. O'Neill stunk as SDSU's QB and very clear #1 QB in edwards .. saw some pundits talking about O'neill over the spring and basically saying he's not a B10 QB and frankly last year he wasn't even an MW QB .. maybe he is now but this feels like 100% trouble .. Wisco is unbearably slow moving and my sense here is for bama to cover they reallllllly need to get that ball back quick and not let Wisco turn in the 8 play drives that run off 5+ minute and punt/pin bama way back .. D needs to get nasty and get the ball
I can't imagine Bama responding to to their gut check, questioning them as football players, etc and simply throwing a no hitter vs ULM only to d!ck around this week .. unclear if they get the good WR back but Germanni or whatever his name is has come on as maybe not the most pure talent but is clear leader in that WR room .. Possible they get their RB back .. Bama might be served well by getting them 'some' action this week vs a decent opponent .. as we expected the starters, the backups and even the bench got in on the fun last week and I think starting group would love to cheer them on again late in this one .. risk management is critical .. easy win / play backups vs the relatively more challenging opponents is a winning move IMO .. Bama w a bye on deck before the massive game @UGA and its true they need all systems go in that one but man if they F around here its a baaaad omen for them ..
Also really like the under but at 46.5 .. think very possible we can get a cover and keep Wisco scoring to a minimum with O'neill at the helm .. rare instance we like the fav and the under so shop around those jerkey books and find one that gives us the bigger odds .. should be +264 for 2 games at -110 .. B365 gives us best odds .. couple others hard rock gives us 3.5 but they're at -21.5 .. MGM has -20.5 / 46.5 but won't let us parlay that combo.. so ..
Vandy is candy. Sometimes it’s all about the quant, and figures don’t lie. Remember that time in high school math when you learned that if A = B and B = C, then A = C? Well, in this glorious pigskin equation, Vanderbilt is "A," South Carolina is "C," and our common denominator, our magical middleman, is the Virginia Tech Hokies, who apparently decided to be the control group in this scientific experiment of gridiron dominance. Remarkably, the Hokies opened the season at home against South Carolina and then hosted Vanderbilt last week – so we have a direct comparison…so here we go:
South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt didn't just win against the Hokies; they treated them like a piñata at a 5-year-old’s birthday party, thrashing them 44-20.
Vandy had 490 yards of offense against VT. South Carolina had 328 yards of offense against VT. South Carolina's offense was a gentle summer breeze; Vandy’s was a category 5 hurricane of first downs and touchdowns.
The Commodores held the Hokies to 248 yards of offense. Virginia Tech totaled 336 yards against the Gamecocks.
Vandy ran the ball for 7.1 yards per carry against the Hokie defense. Against that same defense, South Carolina could only muster 3.2 yards per carry.
Vandy has the very experienced Diego Pavia at quarterback: the guy is a serious dude who has ice in his veins and is a first down making machine who has won a number of big games. South Carolina has Lanorris Sellers, a guy who's an athlete but, let's be honest, is a bit of a wild card. He's like a grenade with the pin pulled out—you never know if it's going to be a firecracker or a total explosion.
South Carolina benefitted from 2 interceptions in their game against VT, otherwise they might have lost outright. Vanderbilt, in their own game, actually lost the turnover battle, and still steamrolled the Hokies. They were so dominant, they could afford to hand out free possessions like a generous uncle at Christmas and still come out on top.
Vanderbilt had 23 first downs against the Hokies, while South Carolina was only able to come up with 16 first downs when they had the ball against Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech only had 16 first downs against Vandy, yet they were able to get 19 first downs against South Carolina.
That, my friends is the tale of the tape. So, let's look at the grand finale. The transitive property tells us that if Vandy is so much better than the team that South Carolina barely scraped by, then Vandy must be an absolute juggernaut compared to South Carolina. This isn't just about a spread; it's about a fundamental mismatch. Giving Vanderbilt 5.5 points is like giving a Ferrari a 5-minute head start in a race against a tricycle. Grabbing the points and the road dog in this one.
0
@Bridge1
vanderbilt +5.5 SOUTH CAROLINA
Vandy is candy. Sometimes it’s all about the quant, and figures don’t lie. Remember that time in high school math when you learned that if A = B and B = C, then A = C? Well, in this glorious pigskin equation, Vanderbilt is "A," South Carolina is "C," and our common denominator, our magical middleman, is the Virginia Tech Hokies, who apparently decided to be the control group in this scientific experiment of gridiron dominance. Remarkably, the Hokies opened the season at home against South Carolina and then hosted Vanderbilt last week – so we have a direct comparison…so here we go:
South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt didn't just win against the Hokies; they treated them like a piñata at a 5-year-old’s birthday party, thrashing them 44-20.
Vandy had 490 yards of offense against VT. South Carolina had 328 yards of offense against VT. South Carolina's offense was a gentle summer breeze; Vandy’s was a category 5 hurricane of first downs and touchdowns.
The Commodores held the Hokies to 248 yards of offense. Virginia Tech totaled 336 yards against the Gamecocks.
Vandy ran the ball for 7.1 yards per carry against the Hokie defense. Against that same defense, South Carolina could only muster 3.2 yards per carry.
Vandy has the very experienced Diego Pavia at quarterback: the guy is a serious dude who has ice in his veins and is a first down making machine who has won a number of big games. South Carolina has Lanorris Sellers, a guy who's an athlete but, let's be honest, is a bit of a wild card. He's like a grenade with the pin pulled out—you never know if it's going to be a firecracker or a total explosion.
South Carolina benefitted from 2 interceptions in their game against VT, otherwise they might have lost outright. Vanderbilt, in their own game, actually lost the turnover battle, and still steamrolled the Hokies. They were so dominant, they could afford to hand out free possessions like a generous uncle at Christmas and still come out on top.
Vanderbilt had 23 first downs against the Hokies, while South Carolina was only able to come up with 16 first downs when they had the ball against Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech only had 16 first downs against Vandy, yet they were able to get 19 first downs against South Carolina.
That, my friends is the tale of the tape. So, let's look at the grand finale. The transitive property tells us that if Vandy is so much better than the team that South Carolina barely scraped by, then Vandy must be an absolute juggernaut compared to South Carolina. This isn't just about a spread; it's about a fundamental mismatch. Giving Vanderbilt 5.5 points is like giving a Ferrari a 5-minute head start in a race against a tricycle. Grabbing the points and the road dog in this one.
Gott'em dude .. 9.5 open at fan gott'em there and some at 8.5 the line sat there overnight last saturday .. tend to agree under a TD ..
Note that beating up VT is huge esp in blacksburg whils SCAR was on a neutral and while scar def had the upper hand from the jump they also got the quick score off the bat and the punt returns .. legit TD's but struggled otherwise putting drives together VT able to get them off the field ..
Should note the problems for VT started stemming from their OL .. 2 guys got hurt and were already short handed .. jumbled their starters around and put in a bunch of new guys clearly not ready for what Vandy was bringing .. these weren't the same issues SCAR was dealing with but pretty much the same result with VT just unable to get much going on offense outside a few drives .. but what was also missing vs Vandy was alot of those deep ball big time catches that VT was making vs SCAR .. yeah its a roadie to tough environment and tough B2B road spot but its early in the year and hope it doesn't throw Vandy off their game much .. they knew what they were in for to start this season and .. so far ... ohhhhh sooooo goooood! ... good luck!
1
@iamhuge
Gott'em dude .. 9.5 open at fan gott'em there and some at 8.5 the line sat there overnight last saturday .. tend to agree under a TD ..
Note that beating up VT is huge esp in blacksburg whils SCAR was on a neutral and while scar def had the upper hand from the jump they also got the quick score off the bat and the punt returns .. legit TD's but struggled otherwise putting drives together VT able to get them off the field ..
Should note the problems for VT started stemming from their OL .. 2 guys got hurt and were already short handed .. jumbled their starters around and put in a bunch of new guys clearly not ready for what Vandy was bringing .. these weren't the same issues SCAR was dealing with but pretty much the same result with VT just unable to get much going on offense outside a few drives .. but what was also missing vs Vandy was alot of those deep ball big time catches that VT was making vs SCAR .. yeah its a roadie to tough environment and tough B2B road spot but its early in the year and hope it doesn't throw Vandy off their game much .. they knew what they were in for to start this season and .. so far ... ohhhhh sooooo goooood! ... good luck!
BRIDGE PLAYS FLA INT -3 BUFFALO -22 WYOMING +23.5 W.MICHIGAN +28 GEORGIA -5.5 (GOY) GEORGIA -6 SMALLER TROY +8 VANDY +8.5 ALABAMA -21 N. TEXAS -3.5 TEMPLE +27.5 OLD DOM +9.5 TEXAS A&M +7 AIR FORCE -2.5 E. CAROLINA -7 N.MEXICO +14.5 FLORIDA +7 (GOY) GA.SO / JVILLE OVER 55 DUKE / TULANE UNDER 55 N.MEXICO / UCLA UNDER 55.5
FUN BET BAMA -21 / UNDER 46.5 +410
1
LET'S GOOOO!
BRIDGE PLAYS FLA INT -3 BUFFALO -22 WYOMING +23.5 W.MICHIGAN +28 GEORGIA -5.5 (GOY) GEORGIA -6 SMALLER TROY +8 VANDY +8.5 ALABAMA -21 N. TEXAS -3.5 TEMPLE +27.5 OLD DOM +9.5 TEXAS A&M +7 AIR FORCE -2.5 E. CAROLINA -7 N.MEXICO +14.5 FLORIDA +7 (GOY) GA.SO / JVILLE OVER 55 DUKE / TULANE UNDER 55 N.MEXICO / UCLA UNDER 55.5
Man-O-Man think we're in the bag here .. Nico pick to seal the loss last week vs UNLV and you gotta get up off the mat and just beat up this little new mexico team, a really good spot to do that at home .. or quit .. UCLA has absolutely chosen to quit .. fire those coaches ASAP because this team is measuring north of 300000 Rontgen with the full blown radioactive meltdown they're having .. can def drag the rest of the athletic department down if they sit on their hands much longer .. still a B10 schedule to look forward to and man o man could be 0-12 .. WOW!
0
SMALLER
NEW MEXICO +14.5
Man-O-Man think we're in the bag here .. Nico pick to seal the loss last week vs UNLV and you gotta get up off the mat and just beat up this little new mexico team, a really good spot to do that at home .. or quit .. UCLA has absolutely chosen to quit .. fire those coaches ASAP because this team is measuring north of 300000 Rontgen with the full blown radioactive meltdown they're having .. can def drag the rest of the athletic department down if they sit on their hands much longer .. still a B10 schedule to look forward to and man o man could be 0-12 .. WOW!
SMALLER NEW MEXICO +14.5 N.MEXICO / UCLA UNDER 55.5
Forgot one .. Shockingly that game had a wide variance on final scoring .. NMEX .. and NMEX alone .. actually had a chance to take that one over ..
CONF FUTURES NEW MEXICO MW CHAMPS .. 100-1 (ESPN)
Hit after the game and ESPN is down to 60-1 now .. Shop around .. It's a sure thing long shot, playing Boise on the road even but .. man o man been looking for some team in the MW to present a potential challenge this year and maybe its SJSU or Air Force we still have yet to see much of .. Yeah NMEX probably flames out, we've just seen them so far beat a totally hapless team that quit .. but feels to me also like they made UCLA quit with grit and toughness and good ole fashioned MW style play running the ball and playing tough defense .. we have some advantages in NMEX with a decent conf schedule even w Boise on the road and a tough no thrills home field advantage that presents significant elevation and wind .. factors the home team can often take advantage of .. most importantly we have new coach, new qb, new attitude and man o man after last night I'd mark this as '100% BUY IN' all the way .. Coach can make demands of his players in pursuit of a special season .. I
If they aren't total fools gold they certainly can 'make the champ game' IMO as the field outside of Boise has wayyy too many uncertainties baked into it .. might show up unbelievably giant underdogs if playing champ game @Boise .. BUT .. we're getting the requisite odds here I think ..
Shop around I don't think all the books link their odds up to move around same time like the spreads seem to .. and you should get wild variances in what is available out there for our dudes here .. GO LOBOS!!!
0
SMALLER NEW MEXICO +14.5 N.MEXICO / UCLA UNDER 55.5
Forgot one .. Shockingly that game had a wide variance on final scoring .. NMEX .. and NMEX alone .. actually had a chance to take that one over ..
CONF FUTURES NEW MEXICO MW CHAMPS .. 100-1 (ESPN)
Hit after the game and ESPN is down to 60-1 now .. Shop around .. It's a sure thing long shot, playing Boise on the road even but .. man o man been looking for some team in the MW to present a potential challenge this year and maybe its SJSU or Air Force we still have yet to see much of .. Yeah NMEX probably flames out, we've just seen them so far beat a totally hapless team that quit .. but feels to me also like they made UCLA quit with grit and toughness and good ole fashioned MW style play running the ball and playing tough defense .. we have some advantages in NMEX with a decent conf schedule even w Boise on the road and a tough no thrills home field advantage that presents significant elevation and wind .. factors the home team can often take advantage of .. most importantly we have new coach, new qb, new attitude and man o man after last night I'd mark this as '100% BUY IN' all the way .. Coach can make demands of his players in pursuit of a special season .. I
If they aren't total fools gold they certainly can 'make the champ game' IMO as the field outside of Boise has wayyy too many uncertainties baked into it .. might show up unbelievably giant underdogs if playing champ game @Boise .. BUT .. we're getting the requisite odds here I think ..
Shop around I don't think all the books link their odds up to move around same time like the spreads seem to .. and you should get wild variances in what is available out there for our dudes here .. GO LOBOS!!!
UCONN/DEL ... It's a huge game for Delaware but they are off a massive game and long road travel and playing at elevation .. they played last week very hard IMO 60 mins of football at elevation .. UCONN had their game IN .. THE .. BAG .. and blew it at the end .. Its an older FCS rivalry yes so expect a punch from Delaware here .. that said I think Del can throw a punch but I expect them to die off at some point in this game .. they have a big conf game on deck and wouldn't surprise me if they spent most of their game planning time in the last few weeks thinking of throwing a punch vs the Buffs and what to do vs FIU next week .. much more so than what to do vs UCONN .. although in-deed its possible with first FBS/FBS home game they see this as the big win spot .. Del losing their QB week 1 is also a worry for them, new guy I thought did play tough ..
UCONN PLAY: ... Look for a Delaware early scripted play big strike from their QB .. he had a couple nice big throws last week .. maybe take UCONN -2.5 or so? ... or .. look for teams playing tough in H1 .. I think Delaware will trail off some point in H2 after the very very hard work they put in up in Boulder last week ..
OHIO / OHIO STATE .. Ohio off 2 very big P4 games and now on the road .. I think they come out throwing a punch and we really like the QB he's such a major dude who might even lead them to B2B conf champs because he's just too much dude for MAC comp .. Expect their best punch early but understand they are off a near massive upset and beat WV in really a down WV spot at home .. Massive game for Ohio last week ..
OSU PLAY: .. The big hit we're looking for is for Ohio to pull Navarro in Q4 .. look back at Bobcat football games we see routinely Albin pulled his QB for the entire Q4 in blowout losses and new HC is a promo from Albin .. Albin was promo'd after Frank Solich left .. I expect bobs to have a very similar coaching ideology even in a transition this year .. it also makes no sense to play Navarro the entire game if its a sure thing loss .. Considering he's basically the etire team and considering OSU's spot with a bye on deck this feels like Tee-Em-Up time I'd expect we get Navarro pulled in Q4 again and we prob get OSU dominating all of garbage time .. considering their defense we'd expect that to mean shorter field / easier time scoring .. good luck!
WYOMING / UTAH .. I expect Utah to try to get a lead and kill the clock on this game .. get home without injuries .. biggest game of the year on deck ..
TOTAL PLAY: I'd expect Utah to move quick into a winning position and play a little slower with probably less scoring late in this one .. if it's 21-3 by H2 I'd expect fewer than 3 scores and certainly play H2 U21.5 and prob take 17.5 depending on what we see in the flow of the game ..
0
IN-GAME IDEAS
UCONN/DEL ... It's a huge game for Delaware but they are off a massive game and long road travel and playing at elevation .. they played last week very hard IMO 60 mins of football at elevation .. UCONN had their game IN .. THE .. BAG .. and blew it at the end .. Its an older FCS rivalry yes so expect a punch from Delaware here .. that said I think Del can throw a punch but I expect them to die off at some point in this game .. they have a big conf game on deck and wouldn't surprise me if they spent most of their game planning time in the last few weeks thinking of throwing a punch vs the Buffs and what to do vs FIU next week .. much more so than what to do vs UCONN .. although in-deed its possible with first FBS/FBS home game they see this as the big win spot .. Del losing their QB week 1 is also a worry for them, new guy I thought did play tough ..
UCONN PLAY: ... Look for a Delaware early scripted play big strike from their QB .. he had a couple nice big throws last week .. maybe take UCONN -2.5 or so? ... or .. look for teams playing tough in H1 .. I think Delaware will trail off some point in H2 after the very very hard work they put in up in Boulder last week ..
OHIO / OHIO STATE .. Ohio off 2 very big P4 games and now on the road .. I think they come out throwing a punch and we really like the QB he's such a major dude who might even lead them to B2B conf champs because he's just too much dude for MAC comp .. Expect their best punch early but understand they are off a near massive upset and beat WV in really a down WV spot at home .. Massive game for Ohio last week ..
OSU PLAY: .. The big hit we're looking for is for Ohio to pull Navarro in Q4 .. look back at Bobcat football games we see routinely Albin pulled his QB for the entire Q4 in blowout losses and new HC is a promo from Albin .. Albin was promo'd after Frank Solich left .. I expect bobs to have a very similar coaching ideology even in a transition this year .. it also makes no sense to play Navarro the entire game if its a sure thing loss .. Considering he's basically the etire team and considering OSU's spot with a bye on deck this feels like Tee-Em-Up time I'd expect we get Navarro pulled in Q4 again and we prob get OSU dominating all of garbage time .. considering their defense we'd expect that to mean shorter field / easier time scoring .. good luck!
WYOMING / UTAH .. I expect Utah to try to get a lead and kill the clock on this game .. get home without injuries .. biggest game of the year on deck ..
TOTAL PLAY: I'd expect Utah to move quick into a winning position and play a little slower with probably less scoring late in this one .. if it's 21-3 by H2 I'd expect fewer than 3 scores and certainly play H2 U21.5 and prob take 17.5 depending on what we see in the flow of the game ..
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