BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 10

BP: LW: 1-0-1, YTD: 20-21
SM: LW: 1-0, YTD: 27-18

BRIDGE PLAYS
WASH STATE -1 
ARK / AUB OVER 57 - TIE

SMALLER
KANSAS / K-STATE -3.5 GOY 

RECAP .. 

WAZZOO .. Can't say it was Neeeeever in doubt but we called the good spot and the motivation and Wazzoo as a legit improving team really wanting this win .. we got a tough physical team playing the way those JACKRABBIT coaches taught them .. Zevi making multiple plays .. Wash State clearly outmatched in some regards .. smaller and little thinner on depth in the trenches for sure but Wazoo with sheer aggressiveness took that advantage away .. Toledo "was supposed to" burn this secondary with a couple strong WR's .. Vanderross is a legit strong dude .. once again think it was a few mistakes for them and good game plan and determination for wazzoo ..  Toledo Secondary shoulda been a mismatch the Coog pass game .. but again great mix of playcalling and some dude plays by Zevi on the scramble drills and just some great throws made it advantage Wazoo here .. Also .. Wash State shoulda been worn out after B2B long tough road games and deflated off the loss .. nonsense .. these guys were nasty the entire way .. EVERY play on D featured hard core GANG TACKLING with multiple guys crushing a pile and think that actually helped break Toledo's spirits a bit getting punched like that every play .. Toledo also showed up with what shoulda been a well rested very healthy group of starters overall ..  most starters getting subbed out early vs Kent State .. next game is in 10 days vs NILL .. really just Chip Traynum the good RB out while still having their quality #2 RB with them succumed to this spot on the paloose .. they didn't fold the tents until maybe mid Q4 but clearly up against a team that reallllllly wanted this home win and Rockets showed up making little mistakes on offense that added up and the effort they put in to early in Q1 seemed to dissipate .. Toledo even got off the mat a bit scoring a TD end of H1 and looking a bit scary driving the ball and holding wazooo thru Q3 and into Q4 putting them on their heels a bit .. Wazoo D BOOOWED UP every time .. Rockets H2 drives ended .. DOWNS, DOWNS, DOWNS, INT, DOWNS .. COOGS 28-7 .. Shoulda been 28-ZIP .. BIG WIN!

AUB / ARK .. Look .. very happy we were able to tie this up at the end .. but Auburn .. YOU HAVE GOT TO BE JOKING .. 1 TD .. 6 FG'S .. I'm glad A-MAC went 6 FOR 6 with the last one to secure the tie .. this team found a way to burn half a quarter dicking around vs this very simplistic Ark D for 15 plays just to kick a field goal .. holy smokes .. think we can tell now with certainty why Auburn STIIIINKS THIS YEAR .. I grabbed some 54.5 and if you tailed hope you won somethng .. plenty of better numbers were out there which landed at the end .. SHEEEESH.. 

KSTATE .. History repeats itself .. stuck with a GOY laying 3.5 in a road rivalry win where the line and favorite flipped unfavorably by a full TD .. even when K-State fumbled the opening kickoff and KU popped one in for a TD were any of you worried? .. oh what a time to double down THAT was, huh??!! ,.. The LION lays down the law of the jungle once again and shows the Jackal who he really is with yet another 3TD win to go along with what ended up being a 4TD ATS cover in this rivalry .. no sweat .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

WASH STATE -2.5

LET'S RUN THIS BACK .. BUT .. Don't be dumb here .. Be VERY CAUTIOUS .. 

Oreg State with HORRIFIC year .. they have played up in a big home spot vs Houston .. that's notable .. however you can bet your last dollar that THAT game will go down as Houston's worst performance of the year with a BAD spot .. Mistakes .. TOTAL DOWNER .. Yes we do have Wazzoo in a bit of an unfavorable spot generally speaking .. 2 BIG MASSIVE ROAD GAMES .. Nearly TWO BIG MASSIVE UPSETS .. Come back home and you get a MAX EFFORT vs Toledo for the big WIN .. and now yer going on the road to your PAC 12 RIVAL .. and Beavs at home off a bye week .. And yeah its not a forced rivalry the northwest little brother teams were all heated games .. not as heated as fighting the BIG BROTHERS Wash and Oregon But in a way its almost nastier because its a fight among equals to see whose the best .. very much a battle between the younger step brothers to see who holds the TV remote once their two big bros leave family room .. and you can imagine how surprisingly heated a battle that can be with kicking tumbling biting and throwing things around trying to at least control your little piece of the Northwest .. There's a reason in FCS they have THE BRAWL OF THE WILD and why other regional rivals like even Idaho and Wazzoo can be such a surprise show up spot .. and here we are with ROUND 1 of the PAC 2 for who gets a leg up in the bragging rights before the conference fills out next year .. yeah .. it might just in-deed be a fight over that TV remote but trust me .. THIS WILL BE A FIGHT .. 

SP+ Made this game -3 last week .. I grabbed it early before the odds went too high on -2.5 .. Don't really wanna lay -3 here .. DEF dont wanna lay more than 3 with the high intensity road rivalry spot with such one sidedly favorable lead in for Oregon State .. and there's no doubt who the books expect us to take here .. not taking big juice and not laying too many although I do expect this line might move to -3.5 and maybe beyond that .. I'd expect if there is anything left to sorta like about Oreg State that the super sharps will eventually bet this back down .. right now idk if there's much to like about the Beavs or if they're getting healthy or trying things that work .. last time I saw them they were tangled up with FCS Lafayette before pulling away late .. So really they've had effectively 2 bye weeks to get their act together now .. 

One big key here is Oregon State's special teams is OUTLIER BAD .. very much competing with ULM to see who is maybe one of the worst special teams units in history .. Wazzoo is fairly buttoned up all over and playing great inspired football .. I think they can in-deed go on the road and get another big win .. but certainly gotta consider a WIDE RANGE of where this game could in-deed end up considering the totally insanely one sided spot and lead in that the COOGS have hanging over them here .. GOOD LUCK!

BRIDGE PLAY

KANSAS -22.5

We're still pending whether Hejni will be back for the Pokes .. However he's played one game and after KU they have a final 3 games with 2 at home .. It sounded like they coulda put him in vs T-Tech .. however why send him back in such a big slaughter spot .. and this trip @KU seems like more of the same ..

OK STATE 7 STRAIGHT GAMES ending with B2B roadies @TTECH.. @KU .. this was destined to be a reallllly rough part of their schedule .. I'm keeping my ear to the ground on Hejni's status for this one but even if he's back this feels like real trouble .. My guess is OK State off a bye gets K-State at home and that's such a perfect spot to find some success and re-launch the season with your VERY CLEARLY #1 QB who got hurt about 20 minutes into the season .. Playing this spot means Hejni would need to sit one game down the stretch to preserve his redshirt and frankly they have 2 home games left and should be noted that the Pokes faithful are still filling seats in Stillwater and they will absolutely see the turnaround potential bringing Hejni back and really need him for both of those games .. and at least a potentially competitive roadie to UCF in between their home games .. Hard to imagin Hejni blowing his Redshirt because he wants to play in this TOTALY CRAPPY spot on the road .. just as hard to see is him playing vs KU and then they need to choose a game for him to sit in the last 3 . yeah I think anyone can see how the puzzle fits and playing him this week before their Bye doesn't make sense at all ..

KU is off two massive THROTTLINGS @TTECH and off their annual sunflower state BUTT POUNDING vs the Wildcats .. AT HOME .. B2B home games and booooy-O does this look like a massive "GET IT BACK" spot here .. I'd expect one of their best games of the year and total ahniallation .. Possible that OK State has some tricks up their sleeves at this point .. But man o man at this point why fret about bending over one more time when they actually migt have a good plan of attack coming up to at least end the season on a better note .. 

OK.State has struggled to run and pass recently .. struggle to stop passing .. surprisingly they did hold TTECH to a very pedestrian 88 yds and 2.2 /carry on a whopping 40 carries .. but even with that TTECH resting starters still destroys them 42-zip playing Hammond their backup QB .. then playing QB 3 for H2 .. even playing QB4 for a drive late in the game .. this coulda been MASSIVE like 100-ZIP win if TTECH wanted to do that .. KU is in a spot where the starters need to feel the thrill of victory and think they'll be feelin it all day in this ABSOLUTE GET IT BACK spot . 

Texas favored over vandy…. What.  I’d have guessed vandy -6.5.    Only way vandy doesn’t cover this is they have had a tough 3 weeks…. Bama.  Mizzou and can’t think of other game.    Texas.    No way.   Not even if they improve this week….. vandy is good.    My 2 cents.   

SMALLER

JMU -6.5

Taking smaller but man o man you got these guys with a break .. and if yer JMU right now yer definitely thinking .. Is it possible for us to still be considered for this G5 PLAYOFF SPOT .. because there could be COMPLETE CHAOS in the ACC with the .. REQUIRED .. Conf champ just not being .. how does one say .. Playoff Material .. like Navy, SFLA, MEMP, all play very very tough schedules down the stretch and its possible a 2 loss surprise ends up pulling an upset in the conf champ game .. at that point the committree might have to consier their options and frankly JMU is not a bad brand and they did beat the surprise ODU Monarchs .. ON NATIONAL TV .. very impressive and very TELEGENIC group which has to be considered when game planning what the committeee might try to do here w the G5 playoff ticket ..  and played very tough w Louisville and probably wouldn't embarrass them if given a G5 bid .. they would FILL EVERY SEAT IN THE HOUSE if allowed and do it multiple times over .. this would be the ultimate pilgrimage for the JMU fan and be a really big fun story in the media .. so yeah there's intangibles that allow this DUKES team to believe they might have a shot now  .. 

S.FLA was the odds on sure thing a moment ago .. its 2 losses now .. if they win the american I do think they go .. Memp has lost to UAB and may leapfrog everyone now .. but Tulane, JMU, Boise, .... SAN DIEGO STATE .. are in a collection of 'receiving votesd' in the top 25 polls and its pretty clear that Memphis has the inside track .. but the committee can move up or down pretty much any team they want if they keep winning .. 

JMU IS once again getting the spotlight here on TUESDAY NIGHT .. another big chance to show off on TV .. JMU SHOULD LEAVE NO DOUBT THAT THEY ARE A VIABLE PLAYOFF CONTENDER in this spot .. at the very very least you will want to win this game big again .. Other intangibles .. Besides the playoffs JMU was always .. SURPRISINGLY.. gunning for their first SUN BELT conf champ this year .. it feels like they have 2 or 3 already but alas this is their first .. added motivation in this one which I imagine was circled pre-ssn because I suspect JMU looked over at Texas State announcing they were leaving the Sun Belt .. and prob did something I think alot of other teams did this year .. Throwing their hardest punch at those A-HOLES who think they're ditching you losers for bigger and better .. lotta punches thrown at these guys this year .. no way they were winning the conf .. and JMU should absolutely let them know in this one that THEY AINT SH!T and throw a friggin haymaker here .. JMU loses ALOT .. AAAA-LOT .. if they lose .. and lose a huge opportunity for the BIGGEST GOAL they have if they even just win kindof a ho-humm game here .. Texas State hasn't faced a decent D since they played ASU .. 15 pts in that one .. I think its lower scoring for them here and JMU can potentially romp if they can suppress their dangerous offense the way they did to ODU the other week .. 

@Mskeets

 On the road off 2 very verrrrry tough games .. I don't disagree on the sentiments but Mizzoo without their QB1 nearly took these guys down .. at Vandy .. and I had it a very very bad spot for Mizz in their 2nd road gm of the year .. off a HARD CORE SLUG FEST vs Aubrn at night .. then coming to INSANE crowd there for gameday everyone wants to see Pavia .. and nearly .. very very nearly got a win .. good fortune set up a couple Mizzoo scoring opps .. but Tigers had plenty of unfortunate turns in this game .. AND .. not to mention injuries .. idk how many whiskers they were away from tying the game .. or going for 2 and winning it .. which is what they almost certainly woulda done .. but on TV it didn't look like that many .. 

I also saw alot of mistakes by texas in their road game .. they have a SUPER ACE punt returner that can literally win them games ..the defense is legit dangerous .. if it wasn't they'd have rolled over and died in the last 2 ROAD games .. now back in Austin .. 

Books know EVERYONE loves Vandy .. Wants to see them win .. the ONLY people in the universe that wanna see The Texas win this game are in-deed their fans .. You can bet your last dollar the books know that and are laying the trap-o-rooski out there once again after everyone's been collecting week after weeek on these guys .. they know where the money is gunna floood in from .. I'm not saying they're right w their line .. But they can put pretty much anything they want out there right now and THE VANDY MONEY TRAIN will be doubling down on it this week .. 

That's just how I see this one .. yeah for fun I'm sure I'll have some fun bucks on Vandy ML in a parlay .. GO PAVIA .. #PAVIA4HEISMAN300-1BABY!!!

@Bridge1

 Yes sir… it’s 3 very tough games… they beat LSU too…. That’s is 3 slobberknocker s.   In a row… now 4…  I have not seen anything from Texas that would win any of these 3 games… vandy outside shot at playoff… I’m playing vandy ml…. Texas will have to play their best yet… and for 4 qtrs… to get this victory…. They have yet to do that.    My 2 cents.   Appreciate your time n efforts.    I think I followed some of your preseason plays.  San Diego st over was great.   I also have 29 bucks on Virginia to win ACC…. At 82 /1.    Ish.    

@Mskeets

Nice .. Yeah I did grab a small on Vandy +3 from Czrs when those came out .. it was gone quick .. think points are huge in this one .. and while we didn't need em last time and for the most part could get under a FG, man o man it was not assured that even getting it under 3 woulda been a save place .. I hit ML last time thinking the game could very well play out with all sorta FG's safeties and wacky scoring .. Mizz nearly landed a safety and coulda had doink'd a FG and went TO on downs at the 1 yd line, hail mary coulda snuck in too .. lotta ways that coulda ended with Vandy not winning by a full TD .. or not winning at all .. Mizzoo hits that FG and gets either the safety or the TD and whole diff ending plays out w out needing hail marys lol ..  

yeah SDSU becoming my fav play .. becoming more forrrrreal every week now and we'll see if they can present a real challenge to Boise as BRIDGE PRE-SSN SUPERFANS are clutchin those 60-1's too ..

BRIDGE PLAY

SAN DIEGO ST -10

Hit this -7.5,-9.5 for smaller when these dropped in the AM .. I know its more now I'm not gunna say how to play it .. certainly if this dips back to 10 I'd say go for it .. maybe smaller beyond?.. feels like either in a good way or maybe a bad way .. one way or another .. it may even not matter .. hopefully in a good way lol .. 

SP+ Line last week gave us ~12 and maybe just start working on this number saying its bigger than we're getting but also consider baked in there are numerous games where Wyoming most certainly enjoyed an HFA adjustment much larger than the SP+ model standard and no doubt would boost some of their power rating here .. we can also say SDSU in their new stadium off a recent bye week and off a nice win maybe coasting a little here but they're in a pretty solid spot off a bye and off a good roadie to Fresno which is not an easy place to play but they made pretty short work of them w the new QB in there .. Fresno's keys to any game is their run game and they have some good RB's in Donelson and Rayshon Luke as the horses pulling former NDSU head coach's hard nosed pro style run heavy offense here .. but they got STUUUUFED for 45 yds and 2/carry .. made Fresno pass the ball ALOT and went 20/42 182 yds .. under 5/att .. nothing long longest 14 yds .. 2 picks .. QBR 18.. Goose egg'd Fresno at home .. D also ran back a TD .. FG kicker 3/3 long of 50 .. dude's been an ACE .. SDSU with 2 turnovers themselves and held on drives to 3 FG's .. certainly coulda been a bigger knockout .. 

I like getting anything better than what SP+ says here because think we have Wyoming in an incredibly difficult spot on the road and one I I think they may not be up for AT ALL .. I noted this exact spot pre-ssn as **VERY DIFFICULT POSSIBLE MELTDOWN SPOT** because they had 2 very tough games vs Utah and Colorado before their bye and since then its been .. what I expected pre-ssn .. to be all the toughest stuff on their conf schedule.. UNLV, SJSU, @AF .. then you have THE BIGGEST MOST IMPORTANT GAME ON THE ENTIRE SCHEDULE .. Colorado State .. THE BORDER WAR.. A very OLD N TOUGH Rivalry from 1899 .. 117 meetings .. Got the Rams in a revenge spot at home to win back THE BRONZE BOOT and this one was maybe the most important one with CO.ST jetting off to the PAC next year without Wyo and the future of the entire rivalry in doubt .. WYO had this circled in REDRUM pre-ssn w all systems go to be ready for THIS SPOT .. a 100000% MUST MUST MUST WIN GAME because CO.ST can go to the PAC if they want .. and yeah it played out as expected .. there is no way they were leaving with THAT BOOT .. 

Fast forward to this week .. yeah I just cannot see them being ready for what's coming .. Wyoming has a decent D and might give SDSU some trouble but they're offense is not good and they haven't faced a good D really since Utah in week 3 .. SDSU's is awesome .. they stop the run, have a legit pass rusher maybe 2 but lot of guys can get after it and the secondary is actually the best part so lot to like ..  their offense is solid with legit run / pass identities . and one of the best all around special teams groups that has exceptional FG kicker and punt return game with everything else looks decently above average .. Wyoming's is borderline terrible w punt and kickoff teams having particularly bad marks .. and they they haven't played many teams w particularly good ST's yet so just like not playing many good D's and being away from home just seems to add up here as a fish outta water and one prob still drunk n happy about the big win last week I'd imagine ... AZTECS however are on a mission to take the conf and maybe beyond getting some votes in the AP now and at least some national attn now .. team is good in all phases and good spot vs what I thought pre-ssn was HORRIFIC .. yeah I'm layin it here w our boys .. GOOD LUCK!

@Mskeets

One note to consider .. UVA very likely neeeeeeds to get to the champ game with no conf losses .. the only good one loss sitch for them is if they are tied in conf record with either Ville or Miami .. if its both or some 3-way combo of pretty much anyone then UVA will almost certainly get tiebreaker'd out of it based on the win % of their conf opponents .. would be sad to miss out on a fun payday after such a fun ride .. and this is such a seat of yer pants team that its tough to imagine they win them all .. could happen .. I could see them going @CAL this week and losing .. 

If considering a hedge the way I'm doing this is I want to see if Duke can lose @Clemson .. if they do then Duke will have 2 conf losses and be out of a potential 1-loss tiebreaker .. it was SO HUGE for WAKE to have that MIRACLE win last week because SMU w 1 loss still has to play Miami .. we want Miami to win that one .. Miami has to play PITT as well in the finale which could / should give Pitt it's 2nd loss .. we also want Louisville to lose either to Clem or @SMU giving them 2 losses .. AND .. we need GT to win out .. frankly I think GT has a great QB in Haynes King but really isin't THAT good of a team all around and is totally beatable if UVA makes the champ game w them .. that's the matchup we'd want .. Would be tough to face Miami at this point I think if they go it means UVA is not going .. so don't really have to hedge vs them .. I'd certainly see if things start lining up next week where should UVA have a loss in their final few games then they will still make the champ game .. and yeah .. ALOT has to happen to get that great deal .. I also may not be seeing every possible hitch in that plan either so do your own research and don't just inject my strategy because the internet guy said it was safe n effective.. ga'hilt .. 

here .. can't attest to all the accuracies but this helps calc the calculable tiebreakers for champ games .. there's still a 5 trillion permutations but might be handy later in the year to consider how teams might proceed in tiebreakers in different scenarios .. 

https://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=fb

@Mskeets

So to sum it up .. The best situation for us is Duke loses vs Clemson next week and we obvi want UVA can beat Cal and Wake .. and we still need other things to happen but if they can do that then I think pretty good chance we're in a situation where UVA can lose a really tough looking spot @Duke which is right before the big rivalry w VT .. obvi we then need to beat VT .. and hopefully we're heads up in a 1 loss tie vs (EITHER) Miami OR Louisville .. we'd beat Ville based on heads up win .. beat Miami on common opponent (Ville) we won they lost to em .. 

We also realllly want GT to win out .. Miami beats them in a 1 loss tiebreaker .. and frankly I think we could be showing up to the champ game as a MASSIVE DOG if UVA has to play Miami .. and probably rightfully so .. Def would be a terrible way for our journey to end being like 2 TD dogs to a likely surging Miami squad as they clean up down the stretch with likely big massive wins coming up lol .. 

Welp .. Good luck to us here!!!  

POSTED WK 8

BRIDGE PLAY

UGA / FLORIDA +7.5 

Posted last week .. mmmmm... Kinda surprised and maybe stepping in it here .. this is THEEEEE Big Massive Game of the year for Florida .. off a bye .. coach fired spot .. lot to lean on motivation-wise for the Gators to show up on a neutral field and take a chance to get a big win vs THEIR BIGGEST RIVAL whose beaten them in 4 straight and 7 of the last 8 .. and really the only year they won was 2020 covid year whose stats we all kinda just throw out .. a year to forget otherwise and frankly most teams just sorta got lucky that year when they won or lost .. there were only like 30 fans in the stands too .. it doesn't even count these guys have lost 7 straight to UGA they need a win and its an epic motivation spot in so many ways .. can't discount the feeling of booting UGA from the conference hunt and maybe even killing their playoff dreams or at least playing their part in that .. yeah the 'our season sucks and so will yours' motivational angle is so real .. saw it last yr vs Ole Miss in the big spot .. UGA is good but I think had a much easier time vs Ole Miss' D at home the other week and there's a good chance GUN STOCK turns back into a bit of a pumpkin in this one with this D FRONT bearing down on him .. we'll see .. 

GAME OF THE YEAR PRE-SSN PLAYS FOR WK 10.. 

SMALLER

PENN ST +4.5 GOY

FLORIDA +9.5 GOY

Welp .. one of these aged slightly better lol .. and .. yeah .. holy smokes .. I've seen OSU -21's out there .. just INSANE .. I can understand some upsets massive ones .. but was PSU never ever really ever good this whole time or ever going to compete in this game or some others ?.. were they bad last year but just happened their way into the semi finals after beating SMU at home and drawing Boise in the next round .. I get the QB changed to GRUNK recently but gotta wonder if a change there might be helpful .. I just really can't believe it its practically the same team and how in the world are they rated this badly this year .. is OSU really better than last year losing like an entire NFL team ?.. hard to believe ..  

I will say OSU for how amazing they've looked they were in a legit tangle with Texas at home and we know at this point #ARCHISCHEEKS and .. man o man this is wild .. My hope is to see PSU muster up a punch here .. one that lands .. Frankly if so I think the GOY line can actually maybe come close to having a chance .. in Q1 at least and maybe even most of H1 lol .. Good luck!

Love San. Diego st, I was shocked last week that I didn't see anyone having them at. -3 @ fresno at, actually read some favoring Fresno. St, that defense is for real, one of the easier wins. Last week, also s.miss. staying under most people's radar last 2 weeks yet have won and covered easily, along with Troy. Maybe because everyone loves betting the Big TV games , a cover is a cover, and lines will always be sharper with the big schools on national TV, books know those get the attention...also ga tech laying under 7 ???  Thank God for college football and basketball the 2 sports. A person can still handicap ..nfl is becoming crazy..I was thinking of going against James Madison, , Texas st can be dangerous and I think they were off last week, glad to see Kennesaw st line drop...good football on Tuesday 

Gl 

@Bridge1

 Kansas now -26....playable?