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Posted: #15

he is right you hedge on the last leg of a parlay because it happens 1 team usually messes  it up
 
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Posted: #16

You fkn see... this is why you fkn hedge!!!

DePaul with zero points for the first fkn 6 minutes...what a bad luck fkn asshole!!!!

 
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Posted: #17

2 mootherfukkin points in almost 10 minutes...you see!!! This is why you fkn hedge...ask me again!!! You bad luck fkn prikk!!!! ( in my joe pesci voice)

 
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Posted: #18

Looking goid... these boys lighting it up..I think i got this 4 teamer....about to chill have a brew and a shot call it a night...my brain cant take it any longer...hopefully this ends good...back at it in the morning.. 

 
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Posted: #19

No disrescept to anyone here.

But, only BASEBALLFANATIC has any idea what he is talking about.  Everyone else is 100% WRONG mathematically.

If you bet 500 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer (just making up #s) - and you are going to hedge last leg, just bet 400 on a 3 teamer (or whatever) - it is MATHEMATICALLY SUPERIOR b/c you only pay 3 games of juice instead of 5.  Hedging is absolutely stupid mathetmically.

Parlays are NOT sucker bets - they just increase variance but EV is same.

If you have one bet - you lose 4.54% on average right (1/21).  If you bet 2 teamer - you lose roughly 9% on average and a 3 teamer is 13% on average right (100 pays 600 so you lose 100 for risk of 800 = 12.5%).
- but the EV isn't lower b/c you are in fact 3x the capital risk (leverage) - so you are basically leveraging a negative EV play - hence the term "sucker bet" - but if you think you have positive EV (why bet otherwise) - its just changing distribution.

Anyways, BEFORE anyone starts to bash etc.  Think for a minute.. Use your brain.  Instead of betting a 4 teamer - i.e. bet on A, B, C, and D then hedge by betting on D*, why not do a 3 teamer and bet on A, B, and C only.  You get same win if A, B, and C win (doesn't matter what happens in D/D* game) - but you pay LESS JUICE to get there.

It's simple if you go into Excel and just build out a simple rolling parlay calculator (should be less than 20 minutes to do) and see yourselves.

Good luck all.
 
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Posted: #20

Here's a better way to show it:

You said you bet 300 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer - and hedged 500 on the end so you either win 200 or win 2500.

So, if you had lost 1 of the first 3 games - you lose 300.

So, risk 300 on a 3 teamer.  If you lose one, no difference.  You lose 300.  Same as before.  If you win them all, you now have 1800 (right pays 6-1 if all -110).  Now, you can bet 700 on the 4th game.  If it wins you have 2,500 - same as you stupid hedge idea.  If it loses you have 1,100.  1,800 - 700.  More than the 500 in your case.

(BTW 4 -110s should pay 3,684.99 so your book friggin you on 4 teamers too lol if you had -110s).

It's scary how little math people get.

You see my scenario is better than yours b/c in every case we make SAME $ except in one case where I make more.

So obviously the "dumb" hedge is NOT the ideal way to construct the risk/reward profile you seek.

Good luck to all.
 
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Posted: #21

Last post here on topic.. Sorry to beat a dead horse (actually PETA prefers we now say "to feed a fed horse" instead as more positive in analogy... so sorry to "feed a fed horse"...

Your idea vs my idea:
When you lose 300, I lose 300
When you win 2500, I win 2500
When you win 500, I win 1100

* that is the crux of why hedging last leg is WRONG way to do it (and I could actually bet a little more on D/D* game so I win more than 2500 (say 2700) and win 900 (instead of 1100) - so I would be superior in 2/3 instances - just changing variance of my same EV).
 
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

Here's a better way to show it:You said you bet 300 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer - and hedged 500 on the end so you either win 200 or win 2500.So, if you had lost 1 of the first 3 games - you lose 300.So, risk 300 on a 3 teamer.  If you lose one, no difference.  You lose 300.  Same as before.  If you win them all, you now have 1800 (right pays 6-1 if all -110).  Now, you can bet 700 on the 4th game.  If it wins you have 2,500 - same as you stupid hedge idea.  If it loses you have 1,100.  1,800 - 700.  More than the 500 in your case.(BTW 4 -110s should pay 3,684.99 so your book friggin you on 4 teamers too lol if you had -110s).It's scary how little math people get.You see my scenario is better than yours b/c in every case we make SAME $ except in one case where I make more.So obviously the "dumb" hedge is NOT the ideal way to construct the risk/reward profile you seek.Good luck to all.

 

I agree hedging IF you hit all but last on a parlay. With that said say a 2 team football parlay you get 13:5. Your odds are still better placing 2 bets at -110. Can put less money on a parlay and it's fun. I always put a "for fun" 3 team parlay in NFL. 2 early games with one late game or a 4 team. Not my bread and butter but if the early games win sit back and collect or break even.

 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by nieldellacroce:

I'm fkn tired of seeing these stuppid things.. Fukk you reeses!!!!.. NOT SORRY!!!!

 

It's Easter season. Change the channel

 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by Omerta:

I always hedge the last game just to cover the original cost of the bet.  It works out for me just fine.

 

yup

 
 
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Posted: #25

Well in all truth and honesty I did not hedge..was pissed at the beginnings of the game cause DePaul only had 2 points with about 11:34 in first half ..then I ended up with 75 points for 1st half..the over I needed was 152 1/2...I let it roll and the 2nd half was fire works..it all worked out...all you math wizz and gurus have a great sunday....some of you have a very annoying way of getting your point across...if I did hedge it would not have bothered me to lose my hedge bet and win my parlay...its just how I usually play my last leg...dont need no mathematical formulas..its just how I am use to doing my thing....call it stupid or whatever...I'm up 5700 for the week...good luck covers bros...

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