Need texas tech bad...looks like I got the other 2 games on lock mode..then I would be waiting on over in DePaul game for the last leg of a 4 team par..
Need texas tech bad...looks like I got the other 2 games on lock mode..then I would be waiting on over in DePaul game for the last leg of a 4 team par..
I hear ya...I have been hitting the mute button. I think it is actually more annoying than the Dominos ding commercial--which has finally faded thankfully.
I hear ya...I have been hitting the mute button. I think it is actually more annoying than the Dominos ding commercial--which has finally faded thankfully.
Please explain the rationale behind taking a 4 team parlay, then hedging the bet on the last game? Sure, you're guaranteed a result now, but why put the parlay on in the first place if you aren't going to let it ride? Odd.
Because if I lose I still get 200 bucks...if I win I get 2500...is that so hard to figure out..
Please explain the rationale behind taking a 4 team parlay, then hedging the bet on the last game? Sure, you're guaranteed a result now, but why put the parlay on in the first place if you aren't going to let it ride? Odd.
Because if I lose I still get 200 bucks...if I win I get 2500...is that so hard to figure out..
Please explain the rationale behind taking a 4 team parlay, then hedging the bet on the last game? Sure, you're guaranteed a result now, but why put the parlay on in the first place if you aren't going to let it ride? Odd.
Please explain the rationale behind taking a 4 team parlay, then hedging the bet on the last game? Sure, you're guaranteed a result now, but why put the parlay on in the first place if you aren't going to let it ride? Odd.
Please explain the rationale behind taking a 4 team parlay, then hedging the bet on the last game? Sure, you're guaranteed a result now, but why put the parlay on in the first place if you aren't going to let it ride? Odd.
LOL!!! Its free money. Always hedge. Some people lol smh
Yea these so called non parlay players..I hate when people come in a thread talking down on parlay bettors...yea yea we all know parlay bets are sucker bets...if it's not your money dont worry how the next man bets..
Please explain the rationale behind taking a 4 team parlay, then hedging the bet on the last game? Sure, you're guaranteed a result now, but why put the parlay on in the first place if you aren't going to let it ride? Odd.
LOL!!! Its free money. Always hedge. Some people lol smh
Yea these so called non parlay players..I hate when people come in a thread talking down on parlay bettors...yea yea we all know parlay bets are sucker bets...if it's not your money dont worry how the next man bets..
[/Quote] LOL!!! Its free money. Always hedge. Some people lol smh[/Quote]
You're laughing at me because I asked a legitimate question about betting parlays (known sucker bets to begin with) then hedging out of it, after acknowledging clearly that he was guaranteed a result?
I'd really be interested to hear how these parlay hedgers fare over a long period of time. Sure you'll get a few good results but there will be a ton of times where the bettor will lose one of the first few games and not even get to the final leg to hedge out. Then when he does he is giving back to the books when the original bet wins, decreasing his overall return on funds invested.
Seems dumb a.f to me. But whatever. Some people smh.
[/Quote] LOL!!! Its free money. Always hedge. Some people lol smh[/Quote]
You're laughing at me because I asked a legitimate question about betting parlays (known sucker bets to begin with) then hedging out of it, after acknowledging clearly that he was guaranteed a result?
I'd really be interested to hear how these parlay hedgers fare over a long period of time. Sure you'll get a few good results but there will be a ton of times where the bettor will lose one of the first few games and not even get to the final leg to hedge out. Then when he does he is giving back to the books when the original bet wins, decreasing his overall return on funds invested.
Seems dumb a.f to me. But whatever. Some people smh.
LOL!!! Its free money. Always hedge. Some people lol smh
You're laughing at me because I asked a legitimate question about betting parlays (known sucker bets to begin with) then hedging out of it, after acknowledging clearly that he was guaranteed a result? I'd really be interested to hear how these parlay hedgers fare over a long period of time. Sure you'll get a few good results but there will be a ton of times where the bettor will lose one of the first few games and not even get to the final leg to hedge out. Then when he does he is giving back to the books when the original bet wins, decreasing his overall return on funds invested. Seems dumb a.f to me. But whatever. Some people smh.
Sure it does..but let me ask you do you win all your single bets?...no I presume..its all gambling bro. We do it in all types of different ways..no reason to jump in someone's thread to try to act like your some sort of gambling guru just because you dont do parlays or you wont hedge cause of your long term investment...save all that b.s for someone who cares to listen..good luck on MLB this year..
LOL!!! Its free money. Always hedge. Some people lol smh
You're laughing at me because I asked a legitimate question about betting parlays (known sucker bets to begin with) then hedging out of it, after acknowledging clearly that he was guaranteed a result? I'd really be interested to hear how these parlay hedgers fare over a long period of time. Sure you'll get a few good results but there will be a ton of times where the bettor will lose one of the first few games and not even get to the final leg to hedge out. Then when he does he is giving back to the books when the original bet wins, decreasing his overall return on funds invested. Seems dumb a.f to me. But whatever. Some people smh.
Sure it does..but let me ask you do you win all your single bets?...no I presume..its all gambling bro. We do it in all types of different ways..no reason to jump in someone's thread to try to act like your some sort of gambling guru just because you dont do parlays or you wont hedge cause of your long term investment...save all that b.s for someone who cares to listen..good luck on MLB this year..
2 mootherfukkin points in almost 10 minutes...you see!!! This is why you fkn hedge...ask me again!!! You bad luck fkn prikk!!!! ( in my joe pesci voice)
2 mootherfukkin points in almost 10 minutes...you see!!! This is why you fkn hedge...ask me again!!! You bad luck fkn prikk!!!! ( in my joe pesci voice)
Looking goid... these boys lighting it up..I think i got this 4 teamer....about to chill have a brew and a shot call it a night...my brain cant take it any longer...hopefully this ends good...back at it in the morning..
Looking goid... these boys lighting it up..I think i got this 4 teamer....about to chill have a brew and a shot call it a night...my brain cant take it any longer...hopefully this ends good...back at it in the morning..
But, only BASEBALLFANATIC has any idea what he is talking about. Everyone else is 100% WRONG mathematically.
If you bet 500 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer (just making up #s) - and you are going to hedge last leg, just bet 400 on a 3 teamer (or whatever) - it is MATHEMATICALLY SUPERIOR b/c you only pay 3 games of juice instead of 5. Hedging is absolutely stupid mathetmically.
Parlays are NOT sucker bets - they just increase variance but EV is same.
If you have one bet - you lose 4.54% on average right (1/21). If you bet 2 teamer - you lose roughly 9% on average and a 3 teamer is 13% on average right (100 pays 600 so you lose 100 for risk of 800 = 12.5%).
- but the EV isn't lower b/c you are in fact 3x the capital risk (leverage) - so you are basically leveraging a negative EV play - hence the term "sucker bet" - but if you think you have positive EV (why bet otherwise) - its just changing distribution.
Anyways, BEFORE anyone starts to bash etc. Think for a minute.. Use your brain. Instead of betting a 4 teamer - i.e. bet on A, B, C, and D then hedge by betting on D*, why not do a 3 teamer and bet on A, B, and C only. You get same win if A, B, and C win (doesn't matter what happens in D/D* game) - but you pay LESS JUICE to get there.
It's simple if you go into Excel and just build out a simple rolling parlay calculator (should be less than 20 minutes to do) and see yourselves.
But, only BASEBALLFANATIC has any idea what he is talking about. Everyone else is 100% WRONG mathematically.
If you bet 500 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer (just making up #s) - and you are going to hedge last leg, just bet 400 on a 3 teamer (or whatever) - it is MATHEMATICALLY SUPERIOR b/c you only pay 3 games of juice instead of 5. Hedging is absolutely stupid mathetmically.
Parlays are NOT sucker bets - they just increase variance but EV is same.
If you have one bet - you lose 4.54% on average right (1/21). If you bet 2 teamer - you lose roughly 9% on average and a 3 teamer is 13% on average right (100 pays 600 so you lose 100 for risk of 800 = 12.5%).
- but the EV isn't lower b/c you are in fact 3x the capital risk (leverage) - so you are basically leveraging a negative EV play - hence the term "sucker bet" - but if you think you have positive EV (why bet otherwise) - its just changing distribution.
Anyways, BEFORE anyone starts to bash etc. Think for a minute.. Use your brain. Instead of betting a 4 teamer - i.e. bet on A, B, C, and D then hedge by betting on D*, why not do a 3 teamer and bet on A, B, and C only. You get same win if A, B, and C win (doesn't matter what happens in D/D* game) - but you pay LESS JUICE to get there.
It's simple if you go into Excel and just build out a simple rolling parlay calculator (should be less than 20 minutes to do) and see yourselves.
You said you bet 300 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer - and hedged 500 on the end so you either win 200 or win 2500.
So, if you had lost 1 of the first 3 games - you lose 300.
So, risk 300 on a 3 teamer. If you lose one, no difference. You lose 300. Same as before. If you win them all, you now have 1800 (right pays 6-1 if all -110). Now, you can bet 700 on the 4th game. If it wins you have 2,500 - same as you stupid hedge idea. If it loses you have 1,100. 1,800 - 700. More than the 500 in your case.
(BTW 4 -110s should pay 3,684.99 so your book friggin you on 4 teamers too lol if you had -110s).
It's scary how little math people get.
You see my scenario is better than yours b/c in every case we make SAME $ except in one case where I make more.
So obviously the "dumb" hedge is NOT the ideal way to construct the risk/reward profile you seek.
You said you bet 300 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer - and hedged 500 on the end so you either win 200 or win 2500.
So, if you had lost 1 of the first 3 games - you lose 300.
So, risk 300 on a 3 teamer. If you lose one, no difference. You lose 300. Same as before. If you win them all, you now have 1800 (right pays 6-1 if all -110). Now, you can bet 700 on the 4th game. If it wins you have 2,500 - same as you stupid hedge idea. If it loses you have 1,100. 1,800 - 700. More than the 500 in your case.
(BTW 4 -110s should pay 3,684.99 so your book friggin you on 4 teamers too lol if you had -110s).
It's scary how little math people get.
You see my scenario is better than yours b/c in every case we make SAME $ except in one case where I make more.
So obviously the "dumb" hedge is NOT the ideal way to construct the risk/reward profile you seek.
Last post here on topic.. Sorry to beat a dead horse (actually PETA prefers we now say "to feed a fed horse" instead as more positive in analogy... so sorry to "feed a fed horse"...
Your idea vs my idea:
When you lose 300, I lose 300
When you win 2500, I win 2500
When you win 500, I win 1100
* that is the crux of why hedging last leg is WRONG way to do it (and I could actually bet a little more on D/D* game so I win more than 2500 (say 2700) and win 900 (instead of 1100) - so I would be superior in 2/3 instances - just changing variance of my same EV).
Last post here on topic.. Sorry to beat a dead horse (actually PETA prefers we now say "to feed a fed horse" instead as more positive in analogy... so sorry to "feed a fed horse"...
Your idea vs my idea:
When you lose 300, I lose 300
When you win 2500, I win 2500
When you win 500, I win 1100
* that is the crux of why hedging last leg is WRONG way to do it (and I could actually bet a little more on D/D* game so I win more than 2500 (say 2700) and win 900 (instead of 1100) - so I would be superior in 2/3 instances - just changing variance of my same EV).
Here's a better way to show it:You said you bet 300 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer - and hedged 500 on the end so you either win 200 or win 2500.So, if you had lost 1 of the first 3 games - you lose 300.So, risk 300 on a 3 teamer. If you lose one, no difference. You lose 300. Same as before. If you win them all, you now have 1800 (right pays 6-1 if all -110). Now, you can bet 700 on the 4th game. If it wins you have 2,500 - same as you stupid hedge idea. If it loses you have 1,100. 1,800 - 700. More than the 500 in your case.(BTW 4 -110s should pay 3,684.99 so your book friggin you on 4 teamers too lol if you had -110s).It's scary how little math people get.You see my scenario is better than yours b/c in every case we make SAME $ except in one case where I make more.So obviously the "dumb" hedge is NOT the ideal way to construct the risk/reward profile you seek.Good luck to all.
I agree hedging IF you hit all but last on a parlay. With that said say a 2 team football parlay you get 13:5. Your odds are still better placing 2 bets at -110. Can put less money on a parlay and it's fun. I always put a "for fun" 3 team parlay in NFL. 2 early games with one late game or a 4 team. Not my bread and butter but if the early games win sit back and collect or break even.
Here's a better way to show it:You said you bet 300 to win 3000 on a 4 teamer - and hedged 500 on the end so you either win 200 or win 2500.So, if you had lost 1 of the first 3 games - you lose 300.So, risk 300 on a 3 teamer. If you lose one, no difference. You lose 300. Same as before. If you win them all, you now have 1800 (right pays 6-1 if all -110). Now, you can bet 700 on the 4th game. If it wins you have 2,500 - same as you stupid hedge idea. If it loses you have 1,100. 1,800 - 700. More than the 500 in your case.(BTW 4 -110s should pay 3,684.99 so your book friggin you on 4 teamers too lol if you had -110s).It's scary how little math people get.You see my scenario is better than yours b/c in every case we make SAME $ except in one case where I make more.So obviously the "dumb" hedge is NOT the ideal way to construct the risk/reward profile you seek.Good luck to all.
I agree hedging IF you hit all but last on a parlay. With that said say a 2 team football parlay you get 13:5. Your odds are still better placing 2 bets at -110. Can put less money on a parlay and it's fun. I always put a "for fun" 3 team parlay in NFL. 2 early games with one late game or a 4 team. Not my bread and butter but if the early games win sit back and collect or break even.
Well in all truth and honesty I did not hedge..was pissed at the beginnings of the game cause DePaul only had 2 points with about 11:34 in first half ..then I ended up with 75 points for 1st half..the over I needed was 152 1/2...I let it roll and the 2nd half was fire works..it all worked out...all you math wizz and gurus have a great sunday....some of you have a very annoying way of getting your point across...if I did hedge it would not have bothered me to lose my hedge bet and win my parlay...its just how I usually play my last leg...dont need no mathematical formulas..its just how I am use to doing my thing....call it stupid or whatever...I'm up 5700 for the week...good luck covers bros...
Well in all truth and honesty I did not hedge..was pissed at the beginnings of the game cause DePaul only had 2 points with about 11:34 in first half ..then I ended up with 75 points for 1st half..the over I needed was 152 1/2...I let it roll and the 2nd half was fire works..it all worked out...all you math wizz and gurus have a great sunday....some of you have a very annoying way of getting your point across...if I did hedge it would not have bothered me to lose my hedge bet and win my parlay...its just how I usually play my last leg...dont need no mathematical formulas..its just how I am use to doing my thing....call it stupid or whatever...I'm up 5700 for the week...good luck covers bros...
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