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#1
BRADLEY: 37-3 VS. NON-CONF AT HOME
CREIGHTON: 30-2 VS. NON-CONF AT HOME
can both lose on the same night? here's my opinion:
Every now and then there comes a scenario that I like to call "double trouble"- 2 similar things that are occurring in the same night with regards to the game and the spread. Monday night's NIT action features just that, only this time it's a little juicier since the 2 teams are in the same conference. This "double trouble" as I call it reminds me of a blackjack table situation when you have a pair of aces. If you've ever played blackjack as I'm sure most of you have, one of the objects is to raise your bet when the dealer is more likely to lose. So when you have a pair of aces, the proper thing to do is to split the cards and bet on both hands. There are 3 things that can happen: you go 0-2, 1-1 or 2-0. But in that situation, there's much better chance to go 1-1 but more importantly 2-0, which is the key.
Of coarse Creighton and Bradley have suffered home losses this season and throughout the years, but like they say, nobody knows you like your own conference foes. Coaches and players each get accustomed to the opponents style, and the building is familiar for the older players on the team. This is, of coarse, because they play each other every year. Often times they play each other 2 or 3 times a year. But non-conference, that's a different story. Kentucky is a capable team but they've lost their last 4 non-conference true road games. Oakland is not to be under-estimated and they beat a good Wisconsin-Green Bay team on the road earlier in the season. However, they were 3-6 on the road in non-conference and two of the other wins were at Oregon and Eastern Michigan- a pair of 24 loss teams.
Missouri Valley teams are very stingy and their gyms are very tough to play in for the unfamiliar foe. You can't just come into these places and expect and easy victory if you've never been there. Places like Southern Illinois Arena (up until this season at least) was a gym that I considered the top 10 toughest gyms to win in the entire country. Yes it's possible that both teams can lose tonight, but there's a better chance of going 2-0 than 0-2, and a split is virtually harmless as the juice will only cost you about the price of a case of beer (depending on how much you wager!). As of now, I'd recommend a larger play on Creighton due to heavy popularity with Bradley.
As just tiny favorites, both Bradley and especially Creighton are worth a shot at 2-0 ATS as it's simply unlikely that both will lose in the same night with each of their non-conference home records hitting at a recent 92.5% clip.
Good luck!
TFM
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