November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 23-25, +9.20
December Leans: 19-32
Fordham at Siena
This is a really weird and intriguing matchup on many levels. Starting with Fordham, there is probably not much that can be expected from this team this year. They’re clearly built around Chris Gaston, as he is their main offensive in a Tom Pecora offense that generally is built from the inside out. With him and Bristol on the inside, they’re extremely talented on the inside from a defensive perspective of not allowing other teams to score easily in the paint. Outside of the two bigs, they have experience on the wings in Frazier and Estwick who were actually the two best offensive players from a shooting standpoint last year. This year, not so much. They have posted a 21% shooting percentage from the perimeter, clearly the dagger to an offense that has struggled thus far. However, those two spots sort of go hand in hand. When Frazier and Estwick aren’t hitting from the outside, Gaston & Bristol are generally more a part of the offense because they are able to get a few more touches on the offensive rebounding side of things. Herein lies the problem with Fordham. Pecora brought in a nice guard recruiting class, which has clearly thrown off Frazier & Estwick’s minutes. Along with that, he’s playing so many guards that it’s tough for any of them to get in an offensive rhythm, also noting the fast and hectic pace that he likes to play at. Which leads me to Siena. For the first time all year at Umass, Siena actually was able to play their style of basketball in an up and down environment and it paid dividends on the offensive side of things as they were able to post a point total of 78 against a very good Umass defense. Along with that, they are finally adjusting to not having their starting PG for the year (Brookins out for year), and Wignot is finally returning to the lineup and his minutes have increased the last few games as he is their main offensive threat and a tough matchup for any defensive backcourt to guard. In Wignot’s absence, Anosike was clearly asked to do to much on the inside. He’s a role player that’s on the court to rebound, not score. His buckets will come at the appropriate time with a healthy Wignot returning to see valuable minutes. The key to Siena this year, and it’s pretty obvious in the results thus far; without a PG like Brookins in the lineup, the need for speed and the need to get up and down the court really takes a gigantic burden off this offense in the half court. This Siena team is quite a bit better than what it’s shown this year. Clearly in tonight’s matchup, you have two teams that are pretty similar in what they want to do. Both teams want to get up and down and neither is at its best in a half court situation. Really, both teams don’t mind taking dumb shots, because both teams score a high percentage of their points from offensive rebounds. The key to this game is which guards step up and knock some outside shots down with the flow of the up-tempo game this is played at. Will Fordham finally find a set lineup with some consistent outside scoring? Will Siena take the moral victory from an offensive standpoint at Umass and carry the momentum forward here? That’s two really important questions to answer, and I’m not sure I’m willing to try and answer them. I think I give Siena an edge in terms of talent, and efficiency, but it’s just a sketchy situation. Both teams are coming off a 78 and 75 possession ballgame, and this one really shouldn’t be any different. Both teams are built on running and gunning, so the opportunity for points will be there, the difference will come in how well each team shoots outside of the paint. The really, really scary thing for Fordham here is the look-ahead to a St. John’s team they actually beat here. Siena’s got a nice little break after this one, so Buonagaro probably throws the kitchen sink and more here. The team’s haven’t matched up in recent years, so there may be a feeling out process in this one from the start, but it should pick up to a solid up and down ugly track meet. Gun to head, Siena and the over, but this is a game that can be learned from rather than investing, let alone a lean.
In the other games, I have no interest. A big part of Geving’s offense at Portland State the last few years has been a focus on the three-pointer, not only shooting it well, but getting quite a few attempts in a quantity over quality type system that also likes to force the tempo. He noted in the off season that he may be venturing away from those ideals, and it looks as if he has. He is still getting up and down, but he’s actually got some size down low to use for a change, something that he has always lacked in the past. And I’m not sure it was the best time to move away from that system b/c the kids aren’t buying into it quite yet. On the road this year, they have attempted 75 three’s. Only 13 of those have gone in. Oral Roberts is in a sandwich situation having just played Oklahoma and heading to Gonzaga and Xavier next. Two days ago Arkansas LR put quite a bit of emotion and 30 point revenge into what’s becoming a decent rivalry with Missouri State, so no clue here. From a talent perspective, ORU probably has enough athleticism to cover the # here, but the outside factors just aren’t situations that seem like you are going to get either team’s best shot. Last year’s meeting came in a tournament setting on a back-to-back, so each team has a bit more prep time here...