On the three game roady thus far, Boise State has posted offensive PPP totals of 1.28 and 1.19 but there are a few things that aren’t quite in their favor tonight. First, the trip wasn’t an easy one as they basically did a full circle around the western part of the US. And second, they’re on the final game of a roady going into elevation. Utah’s not really the prime team who I’d want to keep up with a Boise State offense that’s producing at a ridiculous rate, but a zone defense will lead to Boise settling for jumpshots in a not so ideal spot. This one might be close. Lean only.
South Florida games bore me.
There are very few differences from Temple/Buffalo (remember that game where Buffalo couldn’t put the ball in the hoop) to Temple/Villanova so I’m chasing the spot again. Temple again coming off a hot shooting night at home now hitting the road against a zone defense with Duke on deck. I wrote plenty on a similar spot on 11/28. The team that’s led at the half in each of the past four meetings has given up a big run to the opponent in the 2H and lost coincidentally. So hopefully Temple has a lead at the half, and Nova scores more than the 16 points Buffalo did.
Alabama has big-time revenge as Dayton used a late 17-9 run late to upset (#15 at the time) Alabama last year. A little history – that was Bama Coach Grant’s first trip back to Dayton and it wasn’t a good one (he played there back in the 80’s). In that game, Alabama was playing its first true road game and a few key players were in foul trouble in the 1H. Alabama got back in control of the game late with a full-court press, but then went to a zone late and Dillard hit three straight three-balls to give them the win. I think it’s fair to assume Dayton sees the full-court press at some point tonight.
Running out of time…some quick hitters – About the only good thing Cal Riverside can do is get to the foul line, but unfortunately for them, they are dead last in the country at 51%. Pepperdine’s offense isn’t much better and a trip to the Islands awaits. Both of USC’s next two opponents resulted in final point totals under 100 last season (Minnesota 55-40, and New Mexico 44-41. New Mexico’s coming off an OT game, and they’re projected to have trouble putting the ball in the basket against size in the paint for USC, but The Pit is a place I either play on, or lay off. The spot for USC is pitiful, too. Three games in three days, then lose rival game to SDSU, week off to prepare for Nebraska and travel to Midwest get waxed, now short turnaround just two days later. In USC’s last three games against Mountain West foes, they have failed to score more than 25 points in four of the six halves. Nice little rivalry game between Colorado and Colorado State, so I doubt Colorado is looking forward to Kansas. Gonzaga has a big lookahead to Illinois, but they’ve scored 103, 96, and 104 on zone defenses this year. Granted, those were played in much faster tempo’s than what Ken Bone’s zone defense and Washington State will allow, but still. Some nice match-ups in the paint here, but guard play is probably the difference in the outcome. I love North Dakota State in terms of match-ups. What I don’t like, and I will look this way on Sunday, is the fact that they have a pretty big revenge game on deck with North Dakota, a game they’ll probably win by 30. They’ve looked terrible on the road in these spots and pressure defenses seem to bother them. Speaking of pressure defenses, Morehead State’s at the top of the list. They have used primarily twelve players this year in their rotation and they’re one of the top teams in the country in terms of using their bench. Their fouls committed per 40 minutes for each player on the roster is hysterical: 6.9, 3.7, 4.0, 5.3, 5.2, 9.2, 4.4, 5.0, 7.8, 5.6, 3.6, and 9.2. That’s eight players who would foul out if they played a full 40 minutes. Hilarious, but at the same time, speaks to the kind of pressure they bring to the table here. IUPUI’s on game three of a four game roady and the defensive PPP total is steadily climbing from a 1.10 to a 1.29 in it’s most recent game. They’re also coming out of conference play, too. Butler has big games with Northwestern and Indiana on tap. Butler’s had some struggles with the three-point shot on the season, but IUPUI’s defensive scheme of taking away the paint first should help that. No interest in the MAAC games tonight, but I do think Niagara can hang with Loyola MD, just not interested in taking a chance with their current road-trip. Western Illinois and Eastern Illinois square off in a game where the first to 40 wins…if either of them gets to 40. Davidson has big-time revenge from their worst loss last season (23 points). It’s also interesting to note that the game with Charlotte last year was sandwiched between Vandy (four point loss at home) and Kansas (six point win on the road). Probably a really good chance Davidson remembers this game and it will be their second straight against a free-flow up and down style. I’m avoiding the points, I hate the fact it’s sandwiched between two conference games.
2* Southern Illinois +5
2* Villanova +3.5
1* West Virginia/Marshall Under 143.5
1* ML Parlay (Davidson/Midd Tenn State/Wisconsin-Milwaukee) +108
Lean: Florida State +7
Lean: Marshall +6
Lean: Utah +6.5
Lean: Drake/St. Mary’s Over 141
GL