THURS 151

ok  I am going to have to take Illinois st -5 here, I got lots of reasons, the only thought I had was the total on this I thought was kind of low, and with that I thought it favored Missouri st who likes games in the low to mid 60's , but looking at the brackets I think Ill st is the play here, if they win this they then play Belmont, who they only played once this year and they did win 81-78 at home, if by chance they won that they then would most likely play Drake, the #1 seed, and they played Drake well this year in both games losing at Drake 62-66, and losing at home 84-77 , Drake is a very good team, this conf does have some pretty good teams, and by taking Ill st I also am going Over the total here, just thinking I'll st should get to 70+ and Ill st was very good ats away this year , and as a dog even better like 12-2 ats as a dog and 8-0 ats as an away dog, now here they are favored when I'll st won at home 74-68 they controlled the boards and got like 10 more shots , when they won at Missouri st 70-68 everything was even same amount of shots, Missouri st had a few more rebounds but the game was close because Missouri st was 17/22 at the line and Ill st was just 7/12  so Missouri st got 10 more ft's and made 10 more and lost by 2 , Ill st should get more rebounds and more offensive which should lead to a few more shots, they should shoot well also, I am laying the 5 here  and going OVer the total , 

Ill st -5  1 unit 

OVER 132 -120  1 unit  both at Hardrock    

pretty much what I did like , I think I was maybe over thinking things , we will see    have this as a 73-64 game but am hoping more for a 78-66 type of game

well I see Ind st is now -1.5 ....  I agree with it  but I hate seeing it   

wish I had bet the over 156 in this game damnit

took a live play over 171.5 small

Great night Rum,good luck today 

[Quote: Originally Posted by RUM151]well coming off a HUGE NIGHT  as of the time if this post 11-1  and also hit a 3 team Parlay of diff games so 14-1 with 1 game to go USC-6  and they are up like 16 before half but Washington just cut it to like 11...there were some good trends for the over in this game too damnit , they have over 80 at half ....hopefully USC gets the cover for a great night....    its tourney time  today Missouri Valley Conf starts theirs, always liked this conf, some decent teams ...1st game Ind st vs S Ill  all games in St.louis , Ind st just beat s.ill at home 95-77  one thing about these teams is they can score, but ya always wonder about tournament time, will they slow down, try and keep things close and sure some do, so ya worry about the o/u's  right now the line is S ILL-1  157  these 2 teams have won every other game over the last 6 and won at home and away, but these are on a neutral court ..these 2 played just once this year, and it was the last game on 3-2  in that game Ind st shot almost 60% and 41% from 3  and they won big even though S Ill took 33 ft's to their 21 , and Ind st got 41 rebounds to 29 for s Ill , and S Ill only had 5 to's to 13 for Ind st so they had to shoot well to win like that ...both teams come in scoring a lot of points and giving up a lot  last 3 games Ind st is avg 82 and giving up 80  and S Ill is avg 81 and giving up 86  and both shot 47% over the last 3 games ..Ind st shooting 59% from 2 to 49%  and sIll shooting 44% from 3 to 37% ...so who has the advantage in a situation like this where ya both just played and now you have to play again right away in the conf tourney???   STR up Ind st is 2-2 on a neutral court and 2-2 ats and 4-0 OVER   and S Ill is 1-3 STR up on a neutral court and 1-2-1 ats and 2-2 o/u  Ind st is 10-2 OVER off a win 15-3 OVER as a dog, 13-7 over on 2-3 days rest, 14-7 OVER on equal rest  and are 21-8 OVER on the year....this is a really tuff game to handicap , the way they are scoring I may be like the OVER at 156 , I just think Ind st will be able to get to 80, and both teams are shooting really well last few games I just do not see them changing their styles,    and the 2nd one Missouri st vs Illinois st  I have made a lot on Ill st this year and betting the over with them also, but they are not at home , Missouri st likes to keep games in the low 60's and Ill st can play either way, when at home they did avg 80 a game, and if they score 80 they usually win , they have scored 80+ 14 times and lost 2 one was by 1 pt 84-85 at home to N Iowa and lost 95-97 at Belmont so when they do score over 80 they are damn near 14-0 ,  Missouri st kept them under 80 in both games but Ill st won them bot 

I followed  only 1 of your picks last night... Maryland over.  Oh well, glad you hit the other 11!

@Mskeets

 yes  ty  I had 3 years in a row at Cappersmall where I bet about 900 to 1000 games and was like 600 and 400   best year was like 625-370 I was hitting like 60% 63%   but I think your right about that, a lot of times the team that played the day before does do well, and I think it is even better when you get to the smaller conferences  except for the ones where they are not at a certtain place...like the small ones have the higher seed as the home team and there is a day wait, when you get these where teams play back to back days I would agree that the team playing the day before would do better and it makes sense that the 1st half would be at a higher %

how can anyone not like watching games like this..lol  up and down scoring  I love it 

taking Manhattan -2  at home here, they lost 72-74 at Sacred heart in 1st meeting and that was when both teams had nice little winning streaks going on too and both were playing well, these 2 teams are going to shoot a lot of 3's and the total at 153 I think is good for a OVER play if they hit , last game between them sacred heart took 37 3's and Manhattan took 30 , Manhattan took 4 more shots 71 to 67 but made 2 fewer,25 to 27   sacred made 13 3's to 9 for Manhattan ..Manhattan comes into this game on a 2 game win streak both on the road, and now at home I think they get this game here, and they are shooting really well last 3 games, as they are shooting 48% and 43% from 3 last 3  and Sacred is shooting 43% and 33% from 3  and being at home and winning last 2 on the road I like them here, and the revenge factor   I'll lay 2 here  I cannot believe to bet ML its -150 on a 2 pt spread   years ago it would be -130   

Manhattan-2  1 unit 

man Ind st has missed like 9 ft's and they have turned it over too many times and have missed some easy layups  they could be up like 4-5 pts right now 

all those missed ft's and turnovers  and missed layups  they should have had 95 pts Ind st  , wow  and I lose a half unit play by a half pt because of all those missed ft's and turnovers plus Ind st being down 12 in the 2nd half then lose by 1  came back even with all those turnovers s.ill got 7 more shots in that game and won by 1  glad I won by betting early  but damn 

I do favor Lipscomb  and do kind of like their over TT also   

but this Tulane at ECU game  the total is 143???  both these teams have been scoring a lot of points lately , and last game was 86-81 , and the last 5 times these 2 have played have all went over 143  81-67, 81-78, 83-68, I mean I just don't see why this is so low , Tulane's last 3 they are avg 74 pts and giving up 73, and ECU is avg 85 giving up 83 ...both teams come in shooting well  50% for Tulane and 47% for ECU ..maybe I am missing something  but I am going over 142  -130  its the lowest offered they had 142.5 at -120 but I do not like the half pt 

OVER 142 -130  1 unit  Tulane/ecu

Nice hit on Ind St +1.5

damnit maybe I wasn't over thinking  sometimes the total has as much to say about who will cover as the spread does  its 19-17 with 7 mins left  like I first said  the total pointed to Missouri st  but I'll st can still win and cover a lower scoring game  pissed I bet over is all

Congrats on a great season!

Tenn st -3  -120  really like this team, I have made decent money on them as a favorite this year, they are 8-3 ats as a favorite . and Lindenwood is 3-11 ats after a win, just think Tenn st gets this game by 7+ Lindenwood played yesterday, and they are 0-1 ats on no rest, Tenn st is 10-1 STR up as a favorite  so laying just 3 I like here ..Tenn st last 3 games shooting 48%  to 39% for Lindenwood   

Tenn st -3  1.5 units  

also there are a lot of good things pointing to an OVER play here also, after a win Lindenwood is 11-4 OVER and Tenn st is 10-4 OVER, at a neutral site Lindenwood is 3-0 OVER and Tenn st is 2-0 OVER, Tenn st is 7-4 OVER as a favorite, and Tenn st in conf is 12-8 ats and 12-8 OVER  the over could be a play but now its Tenn st 

Tenn st -3  

NKY+5 at Clev st  NKY lost big at Clev st earlier but that was in the middle of a 6 game losing streak, they did come back at home and win 85-75, and notw they are on a nice 5 game winning streak and in this winning streak they are scoring well, scoring 79, 88, and 99 last 3 games, I think they get this game tonight possibly win it outright, just that they are scoring well and have won 4 of last 5 road games outright  so I'll grab the 5 here tonight for sure  

NKY+5  1.5 units  

well Ill st is up Big, I had to go and add the over damnit, maybe they will get it who knows , but maybe should have just went with Ill st , they got 74 pts with 16 mins left  they are up 45-29  good thing is Missouri st will have to change their style and speed things up a bit now  need 60 pts  its possible   need Ill st to get 80+ 

Like your analysis, unfortunately we have not had a game in common. Take a look at my card if you get a chance would love your opinion 

and going against many here and taking Mich st -6  1 unit  like I said  this team is good, yes Iowa needs this one, and so does Mich st, just based on what they have been doing on the road  and at home  beating Purdue, Michigan, and Illinois ,Wisconsin, Maryland, that is a nice 5 game stretch, I thought vs Wisconsin they were due for an off game and maybe they are  but their coaching is better than almost everyone, I am certain they want to win every game they play....now I would favor an OVER in this game, I think that is the only way Iowa has a chance to cover is if they get this to be a higher scoring game, if Michigan st keeps them under 70 forget it  153 is 83-70   or they are putting this at a 79-73 is 152  80-73 is what they are looking at  if Mich st gets over 80 unless they win big its an over  but you could have a 82-65 game  but everyone likes Iowa even some good cappers   but I am going with Mich st, but Iowa needs a win and I just do not see that happening  , only worry is that they will look past Iowa to Michigan  but that's what great coaches are for   to make sure teams stay focused 

Michigan st -6  1 unit  

Favir the over 153

DAMNIT  stick to spreads RUM  fucking around with totals  but I do like ECU total  but 2-0 on spreads  Ind st and Ill st 

@RUM151

 GL Man 

Robert Morris has been hot , they have won now 7 straight and 13 of 14 ..they only beat wright st at home by 3 and lost by 2 at wright st, that was their one loss in the last 14 games, both teams are shooting really well last 3  wright st is shooting even better than RM , but they are also giving up 14 more points a game last 3, I think RM wins this by about 10  12-4 ats at home, 11-5 ats as a favorite,9-4 ats as a home favorite... wright st is 3-10-1 ats away and 2-6-1 ats as an away dog ..only worry I have is that RM has been off since 2-27  that's a while  but they are 4-2 ats with a rest advantage and Wright st is 1-3-1 ats with a rest disadvantage ..wright st after a win are 4-10 STR up and 5-8 ats  while RM is 18-4 STR up after a win and 17-5 ats after a win   

RM-6  -115  1.5 units   favor the over here also  

IPFW+2  1 unit  

parlay lines moved 

Liberty +2.5  liberty is 4-0 as a dog ats and 2-0 ats as an away dog

N Alabama-6

Morgan st -3    3 team +448  just a half unit on this