I think much has been made of Pitt and it’s struggles without Woodall. They’ve now lost six straight games and have looked pretty bad doing so. As of late, the offense has looked pretty bad. How does a 57 point total at Marquette look? Or scoring a measly 39 points on Rutgers? It looks pretty bad, doesn’t it? Throw those out the window. A few things have opened up within this game that have added some nice value to the total. First, Pitt’s defense has been bad. By bad, I mean pathetic. They haven’t been able to guard people in the half court, and if you’ve watched any of their games as of late, they haven’t been able to contain teams that penetrate. Because of this, they’ve resorted to a zone defense. And that’s the basis of a play on the over here. As you are aware, Syracuse plays a zone, so not only do I have a Pitt team that has gone to a zone the past few games, but I have a Pitt team that has been practicing against a zone the past week or so. Here is the listed totals for the past few games the last five games these teams have met:
138 (scored 140)
136.5 (scored 154)
146 (scored 138)
144.5 (scored 159)
144.5 (scored 140)
All of them are higher than this listed total. Pitt’s defense has gotten worse in every year, in fact, a lot worse. Syracuse offense has taken on a new dimension, and they have gotten better. With familiarity of each team here, there should be a ton of good opportunities to score points, and a ton of extra opportunities as well. When I say extra opportunities, I look at offensive rebounding. Both teams are rated at the top, or near the top in offensive rebounding percentages on the year. Syracuse gives up a ton of offensive rebounds, and while Pitt generally is a good defensive rebounding team (and the stats show it again this year, but not as good as past years), Pitt has been awful as of late. And here’s where I’m going to get extra opportunities. When both teams play zone, you don’t have anyone to box out. Playing a zone defense really sets you up to be exposed by good offensive rebounding teams, and I should get that tonight. In the past two games where Pitt has gone zone, they’ve given up 12 and 15 offensive rebounds to teams that don’t traditionally offensive rebound well if that makes sense. The reason? They don’t box out in a zone. You have to go find people who are looking for openings and neither team is doing it. They’re relying on their size alone to get the rebound. Bottom line, when you play zone, you’re going to give up offensive rebounds, and these are two teams that crash the glass exceptionally well. Along those same lines, it’s been pretty apparent that Pitt has struggled not having a true PG in place to run the offense. Against the Syracuse zone defense, you don’t really need a PG, so Gibbs is more free here to take some outside shots rather than running the point. I think I read where Epps is going to get another start at the guard spot, but in reality, he’s a liability against the zone, so I don’t look for too many minutes as Dixon goes with some shooters to combat the Cuse zone. So, what do I expect? Well, I think it’s pretty much a given that Pitt has to go zone. If they don’t, they just don’t match up on the interior at all. They have no guard defense on the outside, and by going man-to-man, I think it’s obvious that Syracuse’s guard penetration will open up for a ton of layups or dunks when they break the guards down with a big size disadvantage in the post. I think Dixon knows it, and it’s the reason he has gone to the zone. With the zone defense, I expect Syracuse to put up a good showing against something they practice against on a daily basis. Both teams shoot it well, and both teams will look to attack against it, so I shouldn’t get any complacency, and because both teams shoot it well and both teams attack well, the chances for offensive rebounds will be there which leads to extra opportunities for some points. As for the pace, Pitt is a snail, and I think that’s obvious. But against the Cuse zone, they’re going to get much better looks than what they have without a true PG in a traditional offense, so the opportunity to take shots quicker in the shot clock will be evident. And with two zone defenses, there should be quite a few more outside shots take, and when outside shots are taken, you have the opportunity for long rebounds, and when you have long rebounds, you have extra opportunities in transition that you may not have in the half court, so there is two extra chances literally on every shot that goes up that doesn’t go in. One, a chance for an offensive rebound. And two, a chance to get out in transition. Both teams like to do it in certain cases, and both will do it tonight. Pitt has come out on the winning side against Syracuse the past five years, so tonight should be a good chance for some redemption, and it comes against a defense they’re familiar with on how to beat it, and I doubt they hold up. I also think Pitt scores a bit tonight as well, and Gibbs comes back to his old form as he enjoys the zone (he’s 9/15 the last two years from long distance). I do believe the lined total is spot on. It should be lined in the 134-136 range. But, it doesn’t really take into account the intangibles. It’s based purely on Pitt’s inability to drum up any offense as of late, and their struggles which are clearly hidden in this matchup. In any over, you just want opportunities, and they’re should be plenty tonight.